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Canada exported a record 23.9 million tonnes of wheat in 2025–26, while Australia’s latest outlook points to a smaller 2026–27 crop and lower exports. Those figures describe different periods and measures: Canada’s is an export total, while Australia’s current headline is a production forecast. Harvest size, stocks and buyer demand help explain what each country may ship.
How much wheat do Canada and Australia export?
The latest figures show substantial trade from both countries, but they are not a like-for-like comparison. Canada’s 2025–26 figure is a reported export result; Australia’s recent figures include an agency estimate for 2024–25 and a forecast for 2025–26, followed by a newer production forecast for 2026–27.
| Country and period | Export volume | Status and source |
|---|---|---|
| Canada, 2025–26 | 23.9 million tonnes | Reported total; a record, up 2% year over year. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) ranked Canada third among wheat exporters, with 11% of world exports. AAFC, 25 September 2026. |
| Australia, 2024–25 | 23.0 million tonnes | USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) revised estimate in its 2025 report; not a final audited total. USDA FAS, 2025. |
| Australia, 2025–26 | 25.0 million tonnes | USDA FAS forecast in its 2025 report, not a confirmed final total. USDA FAS, 2025. |
These figures use different reporting vintages and status labels, so they should not be read as a current league table. The newer Australian outlook focuses on 2026–27 production and expects exports to fall, but it does not provide an export volume in the cited summary.
Where does the wheat go?
Canada serves a broad set of markets
AAFC says Canada exported wheat to more than 60 countries in 2025–26. Its largest destinations by share were Indonesia (11%), China (10%), Japan (9%), Bangladesh (6%), the United States (6%) and Peru (6%). The spread across markets reduces reliance on any one destination relative to a single-buyer model, but substantial shares in several markets still leave exports exposed to changes in demand from major customers. The Canadian Grain Commission publishes statistics on grain exports and destination countries through its export data.
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Australian sales can respond to buyer demand
USDA FAS reported a sharp slowdown in Australian wheat shipments to China: 0.8 million tonnes in October 2024–May 2025, compared with 3.6 million tonnes in the same period of 2023–24 and 6.3 million tonnes in October 2022–May 2023. FAS identified weaker shipments to China as the primary reason for the slower 2024–25 export pace. These are period-specific shipment comparisons, not Australia’s total exports or a current estimate of China’s share. USDA FAS, 2025.
How do harvests and stocks shape export capacity?
Exports are not determined by production alone. A country’s supply for sale also reflects stocks carried into the season, domestic consumption and the timing of shipments. The available agency figures illustrate those factors, but their periods and measurement vintages differ.
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- Canada: AAFC estimated 7.7 million tonnes of domestic wheat use and 5.5 million tonnes of ending stocks for 2025–26. Those amounts sit alongside the 23.9 million tonnes exported; they are not additional export volumes.
- Australia: USDA FAS estimated 2024–25 production at 34.1 million tonnes, revised exports for that year to 23.0 million tonnes, and forecast 25.0 million tonnes of exports for 2025–26. Its 2025–26 table forecast domestic consumption of 8.1 million tonnes and ending stocks of 4.377 million tonnes. These estimates and forecasts come from the 2025 report and are not directly interchangeable with later agency outlooks.
Production, domestic use and exports do not always reconcile as a simple same-year subtraction: stocks, crop-year definitions and timing affect the balance. A large crop can support exports, but the amount shipped also depends on available carry-in supplies and how much is retained or used at home.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What could challenge future wheat exports?
Canada: a smaller crop is expected
AAFC’s 2026–27 outlook expects Canadian wheat production to decline 11%. The same outlook describes variable harvest progress and mixed early quality reports. A smaller crop can tighten the supply available for export, although the eventual effect depends on stocks, domestic use, quality and demand. The forecast is dated and should not be treated as a final harvest result. AAFC, 25 September 2026.
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Australia: area and seasonal uncertainty weigh on the outlook
ABARES forecasts Australian wheat production of 29.9 million tonnes in 2026–27, 17% below the previous year but still 3% above the ten-year average through 2025–26. It attributes much of the decline to planted area falling 11%. ABARES also forecasts wheat export volume and value to fall in 2026–27. It expects production to remain above historical averages in South Australia and Victoria, while noting uncertainty over the effects of current El Niño conditions on spring rainfall. These are forecasts, not settled outcomes. ABARES, September 2026 outlook.
Demand can shift even when supply is available
Canada’s destination shares show that a broad customer base can still include several important buyers. Australia’s China shipment comparison shows how weaker demand in one major market can slow exports. Neither example establishes that a particular buyer will continue to increase or reduce purchases; export prospects depend on demand as well as harvests and stocks.
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Logistics are part of the picture, but the available figures do not rank the countries
Grain must move from farms through handling and transport systems to ports and overseas buyers. The Canadian Grain Commission publishes data on deliveries, handling, export exits and destinations, but the figures cited here do not provide matched Canadian and Australian measures of freight cost, rail or port capacity, or delays. They therefore do not establish that one country faces worse logistics constraints than the other. Canadian Grain Commission export data.
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- This flour has a protein content of 13-15%, which makes it a terrific choice for all manner of whole wheat bread dough, including sandwich bread, rustic rolls, whole wheat hamburger buns, bagels, pretzels and flatbreads
- You can also use Bob's Red Mill Whole Wheat Flour for whole wheat pasta, muffins, quick breads, cookies and bars
- IT STARTS WITH GOOD INGREDIENTS: A leader in natural foods since 1978, Bob’s Red Mill is committed to good ingredients made with the passion and expertise of our founder, Bob Moore; proudly 100% employee owned
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