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What the reported Polymarket bets were
Futurism’s Jan. 27, 2026 report, drawing on NBC News, described Bensoussan taking positions against Musk-related promises. One was a $10,000 bet that Musk would not follow through on forming a new political party; Futurism said it returned 10%. The report also said Bensoussan won a bet against an unsupervised Tesla FSD launch by the end of 2025. The figures and account are attributed to Futurism’s report; the underlying NBC article and trade records were not independently reviewed.
The story also described a robotaxi market in which Musk promoted the contract and odds rose to about 40%, roughly three times their previous level. That was a historical market moment, not a current probability. Futurism said the contract required service to be open to the general public; a more limited launch did not meet that condition by the deadline.
How Polymarket shares turn a prediction into a payout
Polymarket describes its markets as peer-to-peer: users trade with other users rather than betting against a house. A share price reflects what traders are currently willing to pay or accept. In Polymarket’s example, a share at $0.18 corresponds to an implied probability of 18%; it is a market price, not an objective guarantee of the event’s likelihood.
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- If the outcome you hold wins at resolution, Polymarket says each winning share pays $1 USDC.
- If it loses, the share can become worthless.
- You may sell before resolution at the then-current price, but your return depends on your entry and exit prices, and a profitable buyer or exit is not guaranteed.
For a bettor who thinks an event is less likely than the market price suggests, buying “No” shares may be one way to take the opposing view, depending on the contract. A position can gain value if the market moves in that direction, or pay out if it resolves in the bettor’s favor. Polymarket’s help page explains these mechanics at What is Polymarket?
Why a Musk-related bet can still lose
The market may already account for his track record
Familiarity with Musk’s missed or extended timelines does not by itself create an edge. Other traders may already account for that history in the price. A bettor needs to judge whether the market’s implied probability is wrong—not merely whether a prediction sounds ambitious.
The contract wording matters as much as the headline
A market resolves according to its own stated criteria, deadline, and designated sources. A company could meet a narrowly worded milestone without meeting a broader interpretation of the headline, or a launch could occur without satisfying a public-access condition. The robotaxi example illustrates the distinction: according to Futurism, the contract required service open to the general public, not simply a limited launch. Read the contract’s “Rules” section before taking a position; Polymarket’s listings explain that each market has its own resolution rules and sources at Popular Predictions & Real-Time Odds.
Price moves, liquidity, and fees affect the result
A position can move against you before resolution. If you want to sell, the market may not offer a buyer at a price that produces a gain. Fees can also reduce returns: Polymarket’s fee page, dated July 10, 2026, says taker fees vary by category and that geopolitical and world-event markets are fee-free. External deposit or withdrawal intermediaries may charge separately. Check the current market and fee terms at Trading Fees rather than assuming a trade is free.
Check these details before trading
- Open the specific market and read “Rules.” Confirm what counts as the outcome, the deadline, and the designated resolution source.
- Compare the share price with your own estimate. The price is an implied probability from current trading, not a promise of odds or a forecast guarantee.
- Work out the possible loss. A losing share can be worth nothing at resolution, and a pre-resolution sale may not be available at a favorable price.
- Check fees and access for your location. Rates vary by category, and Polymarket’s live listings note geographic restrictions. Availability and eligibility can differ by jurisdiction.
When accessed on Oct. 8, 2026, Polymarket’s predictions page displayed an Elon Musk tweet-count market for Oct. 2–9, 2026. That dated listing is only an example: markets and odds change, and the listing may no longer be live when you read this. Confirm the current contract and its rules directly on the platform.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What the examples do—and do not—show
Futurism quoted Bensoussan describing Musk as someone who “has a habit of exaggerating timelines.” That may explain his reasoning, but the reported wins do not establish a repeatable advantage, a representative win rate, or what ordinary users can expect to earn. There is no basis in these examples for treating “bet against Musk” as a dependable personal-finance strategy. The amount at risk can be lost, and the contract’s precise terms—not a broad impression of Musk’s history—determine how a market resolves.
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