The 2025 NIL tax figures for college football’s top-valued players are modeled estimates, not verified earnings or tax bills from filed returns. Forbes contributor Nathan Goldman used On3’s estimated top-20 NIL valuations to calculate federal and state income taxes under simplified assumptions. The named example available is Arch Manning: Forbes reported a $6.8 million On3 valuation and estimated $2,474,186 in federal income tax. That figure is an illustration of the method, not a personalized estimate of Manning’s actual tax.
What the 2025 estimates measure
Goldman’s Forbes article treated On3’s 2025 NIL valuations as taxable income and estimated federal income tax, state income tax and combined income-tax liability. On3 valuations are estimates, not confirmed contract totals; NIL deal amounts are often undisclosed. The calculations therefore model tax exposure against estimated valuations rather than establish what athletes earned or paid.
The article’s assumptions were a single taxpayer with no dependents and no business expense or personal deductions, such as the standard or itemized deduction. It did not calculate property tax, sales tax or jock taxes. Its figures are consequently not a measure of take-home pay or a comprehensive bill for every tax an athlete might owe.
The named example: Arch Manning
For Arch Manning, Goldman’s 2025 Forbes estimate paired an On3 NIL valuation of $6.8 million with $2,474,186 in federal income tax. The valuation is an estimate rather than a disclosed deal amount, and the tax figure reflects the article’s simplified assumptions. It should not be read as a verified payment, return result or complete measure of tax liability.
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Are NIL deals taxable?
Yes. IRS NIL guidance says income and non-cash financial benefits from transactions using an athlete’s name, image or likeness generally must be reported. That can include merchandise, gift cards or services, not just cash. Reporting is required even if the payer does not provide a Form 1099 or W-2.
The tax treatment depends on the payment and the athlete’s working relationship. Under the IRS instructions for tax year 2025, student-athletes generally act as independent contractors for NIL activity and report self-employment income and related expenses on Schedule C. Royalties and other NIL income that is not self-employment income are generally reported on Schedule E. These are general categories, not a rule that every NIL payment must be reported the same way; employee status and the nature of the payment matter.
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What the estimates leave out of an athlete’s real tax picture
Self-employment tax and estimated payments
The Forbes figures are estimates of income tax, not a personalized calculation of self-employment tax. Income from personal services may also be subject to self-employment taxes. Independent contractors typically do not have tax withheld from payments, so they may need to make estimated tax payments during the year to cover income and self-employment taxes. The amount and timing depend on the athlete’s complete financial circumstances.
Business expenses and records
Some expenses may be deductible, depending on the facts and applicable tax rules, even though the Forbes model did not include business expense deductions. The IRS advises NIL recipients to keep supporting records such as receipts, purchase orders, travel records and mileage logs. An expense log or organizer can help collect those records; it does not calculate tax liability or replace advice from a qualified tax professional.
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A state’s income-tax rules can affect an athlete’s result, but the state where the athlete attends school does not by itself determine every filing obligation. The Taxpayer Advocate Service explains that a residence state may tax income from all sources, while a nonresident state may tax income earned there. For athletes, relevant work locations can include places where they perform games, appearances or other NIL services.
The Forbes comparison emphasizes that state-tax exposure varies by location, including the potential advantage of living or earning income in a state without an individual income tax. A real athlete’s result depends on tax residence, where services are performed, the nature of the income and the relevant state rules. The Taxpayer Advocate Service also notes that NIL income may need to be reported on federal and state returns, including a parent’s return in circumstances where that applies.
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How to use the top-20 comparison
- Read each amount as an estimate. The calculation starts with On3 valuations, not verified contract receipts or filed returns.
- Separate tax categories. Federal and state income taxes are not the same as self-employment tax or other possible taxes.
- Do not transfer the example to another player. A different valuation, filing status, deductions, income sources, residence or service locations can change the result.
- Use the athlete’s own facts for planning. Records of payments, non-cash benefits, expenses and work locations help a tax professional assess reporting and payment obligations.
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