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Repair common Windows errors and clear accumulated junk for a smoother, more stable PC - no reinstall needed.Free scan · no reinstallBrazil is on course for a record soybean harvest in the 2025/26 crop year: the country’s agricultural agency, Conab, estimated production at 180.4 million tonnes on September 15, 2026. Export estimates also point to growth, but they are forecasts—not final full-season shipment totals.
How large is Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean crop?
Conab’s 12th 2025/26 Grain Survey, published September 15, 2026, put soybean production at 180.4 million tonnes and described it as the largest crop in the agency’s historical series. Conab attributed the record to expanded planted area and a higher average national yield. The estimate is for soybeans specifically; Conab’s estimate for Brazil’s entire grain harvest was 361.7 million tonnes.
The 180.4-million-tonne figure is an in-season estimate, not a final audited tally. It is slightly above Conab’s June 11 estimate of 180.3 million tonnes, illustrating that estimates can move as the season progresses.
What do the export estimates say?
Projections rose as the season advanced, but the figures are not interchangeable: they were issued on different dates and reflect different forecast stages.
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| Source and publication date | Production figure | Export figure | What it represents |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conab, 2025 outlook | 177.7 million tonnes | 112.1 million tonnes | Earlier projections for 2025/26, before later in-season estimates. |
| USDA Economic Research Service, April 13, 2026 | 180.0 million metric tons | 115.0 million metric tons | USDA forecast for Brazil in marketing year (MY) 2025/26. |
| Conab, June 11, 2026 | 180.3 million tonnes | 116.1 million tonnes | Ninth-survey estimates; Conab reported the harvest was nearly complete. |
| Conab, September 15, 2026 | 180.4 million tonnes | Not stated in the September estimate cited here. | Twelfth-survey soybean production estimate. |
Conab’s June export estimate of 116.1 million tonnes and USDA ERS’s April forecast of 115.0 million metric tons both point to substantial exports, but neither establishes the final total shipped for the full season. Conab’s September production estimate should not be presented as a September export update: the cited September figure is for production.
Why have the estimates changed?
Forecasts are updated as agencies receive new information about planted area, yields, crop development, harvest progress, domestic use and trade. The sequence—from Conab’s earlier outlook to USDA’s April forecast and Conab’s June and September surveys—reflects those different publication dates and stages, rather than conflicting final measurements.
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Units and calendar conventions also matter. Conab reports in tonnes and describes the 2025/26 crop. USDA ERS reports in metric tons and identifies its export and crush projections with the marketing year (MY) 2025/26. These are close enough in scale to compare cautiously, but source-specific labels should be retained rather than silently merged.
How much soy is expected to stay in Brazil?
Exports are only one destination for the crop. Conab’s outlook projected domestic soybean consumption of 63.3 million tonnes. USDA ERS separately forecast 61.5 million metric tons of soybean crushing for MY 2025/26. Consumption and crushing are different measures from different source frameworks; they should not be treated as equivalent or added together.
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Processing demand has its own drivers. USDA ERS discussed demand for soybean meal and use of soybean oil, including as biodiesel feedstock, as support for crushing. Conab’s outlook also projected ending stocks to rise 26.4% to 13 million tonnes, indicating that its balance-sheet view included a larger carryover as well as domestic use and exports.
What shipment data are available so far?
USDA ERS reported that Brazilian soybean exports from October through March totaled 37.8 million metric tons, 6.3 million metric tons above the comparable period a year earlier. It said higher shipments went mostly to China, the European Union and Pakistan. This is a partial-period observation, not a full-season export result.
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What a record crop does—and does not—tell you
A larger harvest can support greater export availability, but production estimates alone do not prove how much will ultimately be exported, what prices farmers receive or whether individual farms are profitable. Those outcomes also depend on domestic processing, stocks, market prices and costs. The figures currently establish a record production estimate and rising export projections, not a final export total or a farm-income result.
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Sources
- Conab, 12th 2025/26 Grain Survey summary, September 15, 2026.
- Conab, Perspectives for the Brazilian Grain Harvest 2025/26.
- USDA Economic Research Service, Oil Crops Outlook: April 2026, April 13, 2026.
- Conab, 9th 2025/26 Grain Survey summary, June 11, 2026.
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
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