Neither BHP nor Rio Tinto is a universal winner. BHP’s FY2026 results highlight iron ore, copper and a developing potash pipeline; Rio Tinto’s latest reported half-year results show copper, aluminium and lithium contributing more than half of underlying EBITDA alongside its iron ore business. Which share fits better depends on the commodity exposure, growth risks, valuation and tax circumstances you want—not on company results alone.
What the latest results say—and what they do not
The reporting periods differ: BHP’s figures below are for the year ended 30 June 2026, while Rio Tinto’s latest figures are for the six months ended 30 June 2026. Their underlying EBITDA, earnings, cash flow and dividend figures should not be treated as directly equivalent.
| Measure | BHP | Rio Tinto |
|---|---|---|
| Reporting period | FY2026, year ended 30 June 2026 | H1 2026, six months ended 30 June 2026 |
| Underlying EBITDA | About US$33 billion for FY2026 (BHP results release, 18 August 2026) | US$14.8 billion for H1 2026 (Rio Tinto H1 2026 results, 29 July 2026) |
| Commodity mix | Copper contributed more than half of underlying EBITDA for the first time in FY2026; iron ore remained a major business (BHP Annual Report 2026) | Copper, aluminium and lithium together contributed more than 50% of underlying EBITDA in H1 2026; iron ore also remains a major business (Rio Tinto H1 2026 results) |
| Net debt | Below US$9 billion at FY2026 year end (BHP results release) | US$14.1 billion at 30 June 2026 (Rio Tinto H1 2026 results) |
| Dividend cited | US$0.99 per share final dividend for FY2026; total FY2026 dividends were US$1.72 per share (BHP results release; Annual Report 2026) | US$2.11 per share interim ordinary dividend for H1 2026, with a 50% interim payout ratio (Rio Tinto H1 2026 results) |
The table is useful for orientation, not a scorecard: one company’s full-year total is being set beside the other’s half-year result. A better comparison uses matching periods and the same measure, while also accounting for share price and the number of shares held.
How their commodity exposure differs
BHP: iron ore strength, with copper increasingly important
BHP reported record iron ore production and shipments at WAIO and about 2 million tonnes of copper production for a second consecutive year in FY2026. Its annual report says copper generated more than half of underlying EBITDA for the first time. That shift makes copper central to BHP’s current earnings profile, but does not mean iron ore has ceased to matter.
CEO Brandon Craig called copper “the engine that is driving BHP’s growth.” That is management’s description of its growth profile, not an independent forecast. BHP also identifies potash as a growth avenue, adding a potential source of future diversification rather than current proof of earnings.
Rio Tinto: iron ore alongside copper, aluminium and lithium
Rio Tinto said copper, aluminium and lithium together accounted for more than half of underlying EBITDA in H1 2026. CEO Simon Trott also reported a 3% rise in copper-equivalent production. Rio defines copper equivalent using its production share, volume conversion factors and long-term consensus prices; it is a company-defined comparison, not a direct measure of revenue or profit growth.
Rank #2
Rio’s H1 2026 mix points to several non-iron-ore contributors, but the figures cover six months and cannot be read as a like-for-like test against BHP’s FY2026 mix. Both companies remain exposed to iron ore and the broader cycle in mined commodities.
Growth plans: potential and delivery risk
BHP’s copper and potash pipeline
BHP approved US$0.5 billion of pre-commitment funding for a new Escondida concentrator, ahead of a final investment decision expected in calendar years 2027–28. The funding is a planning milestone, not completed capacity or a guarantee that the project will proceed on the expected schedule. BHP’s annual report places copper and potash among its central pipeline themes.
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Rio Tinto’s copper, lithium and iron ore projects
Rio’s H1 update covered the Simandou iron ore development and the continued Oyu Tolgoi copper ramp-up. It also reported first production at Fénix 1B and Sal de Vida ahead of plan, and described a path toward about 200 ktpa of lithium carbonate equivalent capacity by 2028. These are project updates and a target, not assurances of future output. Construction, approvals, ramp-up, cost control and market conditions all affect whether planned growth becomes cash generation.
Balance sheets, dividends and shareholder returns
BHP reported net debt below US$9 billion at FY2026 year end; Rio reported US$14.1 billion at 30 June 2026. These are snapshots at the end of different reporting periods and do not, by themselves, establish which company has the stronger balance sheet relative to its business, cash generation or future capital needs.
BHP’s stated capital-allocation framework sets a minimum dividend payout ratio of 50% of underlying attributable profit at each reporting period. Its FY2026 final dividend was US$0.99 per share, payable on 23 September 2026, and its annual report lists total dividends of US$1.72 per share for the year. The final-dividend notice describes a dividend reinvestment plan; holders should check applicable terms and share-register arrangements.
Rio declared a US$2.11-per-share interim ordinary dividend for H1 2026, equal to a 50% interim payout ratio. Its FY2025 full-year results, published in February 2026, provide separate annual context: US$25.4 billion underlying EBITDA, US$16.8 billion operating cash flow, US$10.9 billion underlying earnings and a US$6.5 billion ordinary dividend at a 60% payout. Rio said FY2025 was the tenth consecutive year at the top end of its payout range. These FY2025 annual figures are not directly comparable with BHP’s FY2026 results or Rio’s H1 2026 interim figures.
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1Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problems2Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute3Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsRio says dividend decisions take account of financial-year results, major-commodity outlook, long-term growth prospects and the aim of maintaining a strong balance sheet. Neither company’s past payout or stated framework guarantees future dividends. Dividend amounts are also only one part of total return; currency, share price, reinvestment choices and investor taxes matter.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Which share may fit which portfolio?
Use the comparison to identify what you need to investigate, rather than treating it as a personalized recommendation.
- Consider BHP if: its combination of substantial iron ore exposure, growing copper contribution and planned copper and potash projects is consistent with the commodity exposure and development risk you want.
- Consider Rio Tinto if: its iron ore business alongside copper, aluminium and lithium better matches the mix you seek, and you are comfortable assessing its project pipeline and execution.
- Compare both further if: you want diversified mining exposure but have not yet tested how each company’s earnings might respond to commodity prices, operating interruptions or project delays.
Mining companies can be affected by falling commodity prices, geopolitical and trade conditions, currency moves, safety incidents, climate impacts, water scarcity and regulatory change. Rio lists these among its risks; they are relevant considerations for a portfolio holding in either miner. A broader company count of commodities is not automatically lower risk: contributions to earnings, operating costs, capital requirements and correlations can differ.
What to check before choosing
- Compare the same periods and measures. Use full-year against full-year or half-year against half-year, and keep underlying EBITDA, underlying earnings, attributable profit and cash flow distinct.
- Review valuation using current market data. Company releases report operating performance, not whether either share is attractively priced today. Compare market value and relevant earnings or cash-flow measures at the same date, and account for the different businesses and capital needs.
- Test the growth case. For each project, consider its stage, funding needs, approvals, timetable, ramp-up and exposure to cost overruns. Treat targets and expected milestones as uncertain until delivered.
- Match the holding to your portfolio. Consider your existing investments, desired commodity exposure, time horizon and ability to tolerate cyclical earnings and share-price movements.
- Check the investor-specific details. Listing, share register, dividend currency, reinvestment eligibility and tax treatment can depend on the security held and where you reside. Rio notes Australian dividend imputation may affect eligible Australian resident holders of Rio Tinto Limited shares, subject to individual tax status; it is not a universal benefit.
The company results establish neither a current relative valuation nor which share is suitable for a particular investor. That decision requires current market prices and an understanding of the investor’s own objectives, risk tolerance and tax position.
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