ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet was reported in December 2024 as saying that restrictions on exporting extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems would leave China “10 to 15 years behind the West” in advanced chipmaking. The statement is real, but the number is an attributed executive estimate—not a measured score for China’s entire semiconductor industry, or a forecast of when China will catch up.
What Fouquet said—and what the headline leaves out
The reported remark came from a December 2024 interview with Dutch newspaper NRC. Technology publications reproduced the statement in English, with the caveat that the wording was machine-translated. Tom’s Hardware reported the interview and its context in its December 2024 account; TrendForce also summarized the report, describing the estimate as a consequence of the EUV export ban (TrendForce).
The reported wording was: “By banning the export of EUV, China will lag 10 to 15 years behind the West.” It is best read as Fouquet’s strategic assessment of China’s position in advanced semiconductor manufacturing under equipment restrictions. It does not establish that every Chinese semiconductor capability—from mature-node production to chip design—is a decade or more behind. The English sentence is a reported translation, not a verified verbatim English transcript.
There is also an important difference between being “10 to 15 years behind” and catching up in 10 to 15 years. The figure does not specify a measurement method or promise a catch-up date. Technology leaders keep advancing while others try to close the gap.
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Why EUV equipment matters
ASML sells chipmaking equipment, not finished chips
ASML is a Dutch semiconductor-equipment maker. Chip manufacturers use its lithography systems to print circuit patterns on silicon wafers; ASML does not make consumer processors. In its 2025 annual report, the company reported €32.7 billion in net sales, €4.7 billion in research and development, 48 EUV systems sold, 279 DUV systems sold and 208 metrology and inspection systems sold.
That makes Fouquet a significant industry voice on lithography and the tools available to chipmakers. It is still the perspective of the CEO of the company that leads the EUV market, so readers should distinguish his informed assessment from an independent, standardized measurement.
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EUV and DUV do different jobs in the manufacturing process
Lithography uses light to transfer patterns onto a wafer. EUV uses light with a wavelength of about 13.5 nanometers and is important for manufacturing leading-edge features at high volume. ASML explains the role of EUV and the limits of DUV in its technology overview.
China’s lack of access to EUV does not mean it cannot make advanced chips. Deep ultraviolet (DUV) systems can be used for sophisticated manufacturing. But printing very small features with DUV generally requires more patterning steps and exposures, tighter alignment and more masks. That added process complexity can increase manufacturing time and cost, constrain throughput, and create more opportunities for defects. The practical comparison is not simply whether a chip can be made; it is whether it can be made reliably, at competitive cost and in large quantities.
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Where the gap is—and where the headline overreaches
The leading-edge challenge is broader than one machine
Lack of EUV access is a major disadvantage, but advanced manufacturing depends on an ecosystem, not a single tool. Lithography must work alongside equipment and capabilities for etching, deposition, metrology, inspection and mask production, as well as materials, software, components, servicing and manufacturing expertise. A weakness in one part can make it harder to achieve the yield, throughput and cost required for competitive high-volume production.
For that reason, “behind” can refer to several different things: access to equipment, process performance, yield, production scale, cost efficiency and the depth of domestic suppliers. Fouquet’s reported estimate does not provide separate measurements for those categories.
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China has made progress, and its capabilities vary by segment
Reports have described SMIC producing advanced-node chips with DUV-based methods and Huawei developing chip products with domestic manufacturing partners. These examples show that EUV is not an absolute prerequisite for producing every advanced chip. They do not, by themselves, demonstrate parity with TSMC, Intel or Samsung in yield, cost, volume or the strength of the supporting supply chain.
China’s semiconductor position also cannot be reduced to leading-edge logic. It has substantial demand and manufacturing activity, including in mature-node chips used in automobiles, industrial equipment, appliances, communications and consumer electronics. Chip design is another distinct capability: a Chinese firm may design a capable processor without having equivalent domestic equipment or manufacturing capacity. Likewise, a process-node label such as “7 nm” is not a universal physical measurement or proof of equal performance. Design rules, transistor characteristics, density, power, yield, packaging and production maturity all matter.
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What export controls restrict—and what they do not
Restrictions are especially consequential for leading-edge equipment, but they are not a total ban on every semiconductor tool or every piece of business with China. ASML’s disclosures describe licensing requirements affecting EUV, certain DUV immersion systems and other products, and explain that rules and the list of affected entities can change (ASML’s 2024 annual report).
ASML said updated U.S. restrictions announced on December 2, 2024 included controls involving metrology, software and additional Chinese fab locations. At the time, it projected that China-related business would account for around 20% of its total 2025 sales. Its announcement described the expected effect of those updated rules on the company’s outlook (ASML’s 2025 financials). That distinction matters: limits on the most advanced tools can coexist with permitted equipment sales and the operation of tools already in use.
Is the estimate still accurate in 2026?
The December 2024 statement remains useful as a description of the strategic gap Fouquet was discussing, but it is not a verified measurement of China’s position today. Available public information does not establish a single 2026 figure that applies across design, fabrication, equipment, packaging, memory and mature-node chips.
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A free scan shows the junk files, broken settings and background clutter dragging Windows down - then fixes them in one click.Free scan · Windows 10 & 11A more useful way to assess the gap is to ask what China can manufacture and at what yield, cost and volume, then examine whether its equipment and materials supply can support production over time. A breakthrough can narrow one part of the gap without closing the broader ecosystem disadvantage. The number “10 to 15 years” should not be read as an exact countdown, nor as proof that China is unable to make advanced chips.
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