The “nearly $100 billion and 2 billion gamers by 2028” headline was a forecast, not a reported result—and it is no longer Niko Partners’ latest outlook. In its June 2026 model, Niko Partners projects $103.6 billion in games revenue and 1.99 billion players across its 13 tracked Asia and MENA markets in 2030. The estimate excludes console gaming in Southeast Asia.
What happened to the 2028 forecast?
In June 2024, Niko Partners projected that its tracked Asia and MENA markets would have nearly 2 billion gamers by 2028, up from 1.6 billion in 2023. The same model estimated $86 billion in games revenue from gamer spending in 2023. Those were estimates and forecasts published in 2024—not observed totals for 2028. Niko Partners’ June 5, 2024 announcement describes that forecast.
The forecast horizon has since moved. Niko’s 2025 model projected $96.0 billion in player spending by 2029, while its June 2026 model places the $100 billion threshold in 2030. These figures come from different model vintages and forecast years, so they should not be read as a simple sequence of measured annual growth or as directly interchangeable totals.
| Niko Partners model | Reported or forecast figure | What the figure describes |
|---|---|---|
| June 2024 | Nearly 2 billion by 2028; 1.6 billion in 2023 | Gamers; 2028 is a forecast, while 2023 is the model’s estimate. |
| June 2024 | $86 billion in 2023 | Games revenue from gamer spending, as estimated by Niko Partners. |
| June 2025 | $86.6 billion in 2024; $96.0 billion in 2029; 2.1% five-year CAGR | Player spending; the 2029 figure is a forecast and the CAGR is the model’s five-year projection. |
| June 2026 | $88.9 billion in 2025; $91.8 billion in 2026; $103.6 billion in 2030 | Games revenue; 2026 and 2030 are projections in the model. |
| June 2026 | 1.77 billion in 2026; 1.99 billion in 2030 | Players; both are projections. |
The 2025 update is summarized in Niko Partners’ June 3, 2025 release. Its later update appeared in a December 4, 2025 release. The latest figures above are from Niko Partners’ June 1, 2026 summary.
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Which countries are included in “Asia & MENA”?
For these forecasts, “Asia & MENA” means Niko Partners’ defined group of 13 country markets, not every market in either broad region:
- China
- India
- Japan and Korea
- Southeast Asia: Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam
- MENA: Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE
Country coverage matters when comparing market totals. An estimate that includes additional countries—or counts platforms differently—may answer a different question even if it uses a similar regional label.
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What the $103.6 billion estimate does—and does not—count
Niko Partners’ 2030 figure is a forecast of games revenue for its 13 tracked markets. Its June 2026 model explicitly excludes console gaming in Southeast Asia because the company says console gaming is not as prevalent there. The estimate therefore should not be compared directly with a total that includes that spending unless geographic coverage and platform definitions are aligned.
Niko says the 13 markets account for 46.3% of global video game revenue in its 2026 model. That share carries the same Southeast Asian console exclusion; it is not a platform-neutral measure of all spending across the region.
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Keep the forecast’s measures distinct: revenue and player spending refer to money, while the player or gamer figures refer to people. The terms are not interchangeable, and different releases use different labels and forecast horizons.
Where is growth expected, and where is the revenue concentrated?
Niko’s June 2026 model projects India’s player spending to grow at an 11.2% five-year compound annual growth rate through 2030. That is a growth-rate forecast, not a claim that India is the largest market by revenue.
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By contrast, China, Japan, and Korea are projected to make up 88.6% of revenue across the tracked markets in 2030. Niko characterizes these as mature, high-revenue-concentration markets, while India and the three MENA markets are growth markets. A fast growth rate and a large current or projected market size answer different business questions.
For broader context on country differences, see Niko Partners’ June 24, 2025 market analysis summary; its forecast figures have been superseded by the 2026 update.
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How much confidence should readers place in the forecast?
The figures are Niko Partners’ estimates and projections, not independently verified market totals. Public summaries say the reports draw on model assumptions, macroeconomic data, survey demographics, tables, exhibits, and qualitative analysis. Niko reported surveying 7,700 gamers from November 2023 to April 2024 for its earlier update, and 7,885 gamers in March 2025 for the 2025 update. Those survey counts describe inputs to those earlier models; they do not establish a margin of error for the 2026 forecast.
The public June 2026 summary does not provide the complete calculation method, country-level assumptions, or forecast confidence intervals. Readers therefore cannot reproduce the $103.6 billion estimate from the public summary alone. Treat it as a useful view of Niko’s outlook, not a guaranteed outcome or a consensus forecast.
What could drive the market outlook?
When Niko announced its 2024 forecast, CEO Lisa Hanson said: “Asia and MENA remain critical in the global games market, and drivers to the growth in these regions include localization, increase in participation by female gamers, government support for esports, growth of out-of-app monetization of mobile games, and rising spending power.” Those are factors Hanson identified in 2024, not a guarantee that the 2030 projection will be met. Niko’s 2026 summary also identifies Nintendo Switch 2 as a growth factor, while its Southeast Asia console exclusion remains part of the model’s scope.
Where to find more detailed market data
Business readers who need country-level estimates, assumptions, and analysis should consult Niko Partners’ market model reports or NikoIQ, which the company identifies as its research products. The public announcement pages provide summaries rather than the full underlying model, so they are not sufficient for reproducing the country-by-country forecast.
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