Not across the United States, at least in the latest national data. USDA’s inflation-adjusted average values for 2025–26 rose slightly for both cropland and pastureland. But regional surveys show declines in some land categories, while farm finances have weakened and land prices remain high relative to rents. The more accurate picture is an uneven cooling—not a nationwide fall in farmland prices.
Are farmland prices falling?
The answer depends on the place, land type, time period, and measure. USDA’s annual national figures show small real gains from 2025 to 2026, while some Federal Reserve regional surveys report declines or little movement in particular categories. Those findings can coexist: the USDA figures cover national averages, and the Fed reports describe lender surveys in specific districts and quarters.
| Measure | Reported change | What it covers |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. cropland value, 2025–26 | Up 0.3% in inflation-adjusted terms, to $6,020 per acre | USDA Economic Research Service annual national average |
| U.S. pastureland value, 2025–26 | Up 1.1% in inflation-adjusted terms, to $2,000 per acre | USDA Economic Research Service annual national average |
| Ninth District ranch and pasture values, third quarter 2025 | Down more than 4% year over year | Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis regional survey |
| Seventh District agricultural land values, first quarter 2026 | Up 3% year over year | Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago regional survey |
The USDA figures are annual national estimates. The Minneapolis and Chicago figures are quarterly regional survey results and cover different districts, dates, and land categories. They should not be combined as if they were readings from one index.
How much have values grown over the longer term?
Despite the recent slowdown, farmland values have risen substantially over the five years through 2025. USDA ERS reports inflation-adjusted compound annual growth of 3.2% for cropland and 2.3% for pastureland from 2020 to 2025. These are average yearly growth rates over that period, not forecasts or measures of what a particular parcel gained.
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Why can land stay expensive when farm finances weaken?
Farm income, cash rents, and land sale values are related, but they do not necessarily move together in the same year. Land is a long-lived asset, so its price can reflect expected future income and other sources of demand as well as current farm conditions. The Kansas City Fed described farmland values as firm in 2025 and near record levels in early 2026 even as farm credit conditions worsened.
USDA ERS identifies several factors relevant to farmland value: interest rates, returns on alternative investments, soil quality, government payments, rural amenity value, and proximity to urban areas. The agency’s list identifies influences to consider; it does not quantify how much each one explains recent price movements.
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Parcel-level supply and demand matter, too. A national average cannot tell a buyer or seller what a specific field, pasture, or ranch is worth. Local soil, access, water, competing buyers, and lease terms can all make a parcel’s market differ from the broader trend; the available national and district figures do not establish a price for any individual property.
What do high price-to-rent ratios mean?
The Federal Reserve’s May 2026 Financial Stability Report describes farmland price-to-rent ratios as historically high in 2025. A high ratio means land prices are high compared with the income represented by rent. Put another way, the rent yield on the land is relatively thin compared with its value.
The Kansas City Fed describes a capitalization rate for nonirrigated cropland as cash rent divided by land value. That relationship can help explain why an owner’s rental income may not rise in step with the asset’s price. It is not a guaranteed total return, and a high price-to-rent ratio alone does not predict when—or whether—prices will fall.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What should buyers and landowners take from the trend?
- For buyers: A national average is a reference point, not a substitute for valuing a particular parcel. Compare local sale prices and realistic rents, and account for the costs and financing terms relevant to that property.
- For landowners: Strong headline values do not necessarily mean rental income is keeping pace. Consider the parcel’s actual rent and expenses rather than assuming the national price trend translates into a comparable yield.
- For anyone following the market: Check whether a reported change is nominal or inflation-adjusted, annual or quarterly, and national or regional. Also check whether it refers to cropland, pastureland, or ranchland.
The evidence supports a more precise headline than a broad claim that farmland prices have fallen back nationwide: U.S. land values remain high, national real averages edged up in 2025–26, and cooling is visible in some regional and land-type readings.
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