Luxury watches can rise in resale value, but they are not a dependable investment. Results differ sharply by brand and model, and market-index gains do not show what an individual buyer will earn after the purchase price, ownership costs, and selling fees. Consider a watch primarily for the enjoyment of owning it; treat any resale value as uncertain.
What luxury-watch market data shows—and what it does not
Chrono24’s ChronoPulse secondary-market index rose 22.85% over the five years from October 2019 to October 2024. Brand results over that same period varied widely: Audemars Piguet rose 64.85%, Vacheron Constantin 52.27%, Cartier 39.06%, Patek Philippe 33.59%, and Rolex 27.59%. Tudor fell 9.54%, Hublot 2.99%, and Panerai 16.88%, according to Chrono24’s October 2024 report. These are historical index movements, not returns earned by every owner or a forecast for any particular reference.
The index also shows why the measurement window matters. Chrono24 reported a 25% market decline from April 2022 to October 2024. Its calendar-2024 reading rose 0.35%, comprising a 0.83% decline in the first half and a 1.18% rise in the second half, as reported in Chrono24’s 2025 market report. In a separate update, the company said the market fell 3% in Q1 2025 and was down 23.9% from its March 2022 peak, while its five-year measure to March 2025 remained up 24.5% (Chrono24’s Q1 2025 report). The figures refer to different periods and should not be combined as though they describe one return.
Chrono24 says ChronoPulse is based on transaction data and describes it as drawing on more than 600,000 transactions. That makes it useful for market context, but an index still cannot tell you what you would net on one watch. The figures are company-published market measurements, not a comprehensive independent study of returns after purchase and ownership costs. They also do not establish risk-adjusted performance against conventional investments.
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Why an index gain is not your investment return
Your result starts with the price you actually pay, not a headline retail price or an index value. If you pay more than a realistic resale price, the watch begins at a disadvantage. Authorized-retail availability and the price a buyer must pay in the primary or secondary market may differ; assess the actual transaction you can make.
To estimate a possible net outcome, subtract the costs you expect to incur from a realistic sale price. Depending on your location and selling route, those costs may include servicing, insurance, taxes, shipping, dealer spread, selling commission, and auction charges. No general cost total applies: obtain local, route-specific figures before treating an expected resale price as a return calculation.
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Liquidity matters too. A quoted value is not cash in hand, and a sale may take time. The available market-index figures do not establish how quickly a particular reference will sell or what price a seller can secure immediately.
How to assess a specific watch before buying
- Identify the exact reference. Brand-level averages conceal differences between models, production years, condition, completeness, and provenance. Use an index for context, not as a valuation of an individual watch.
- Compare recent completed sales. Look for transactions involving the same reference and, as closely as possible, comparable condition and completeness. Chrono24 describes ChronoPulse as transaction-based; distinguish transaction data from current asking prices, which are not proof that a buyer paid that amount.
- Calculate your real entry price. Record what you would actually pay, including any premium over an authorized-retail price, taxes, and other purchase charges relevant to your location.
- Estimate the costs of ownership and sale. Ask about service needs, insurance, and the fees and logistics for your likely selling route. Do not assume a future sale will be free or immediate.
- Check whether the market is deep enough for your needs. Compare the number and recency of transactions for the exact reference. A few comparable sales may provide limited evidence; market-level index data cannot supply model-specific liquidity statistics.
- Set a time horizon and compare alternatives fairly. A watch’s price change is not directly comparable with another asset’s total return unless the periods, costs, inflation treatment, and risks are comparable. Chrono24’s historical comparisons do not provide a personal, risk-adjusted investment comparison.
When buying may make sense
A luxury watch may still be a satisfying purchase if you value wearing and owning it, can afford the full cost without relying on appreciation, and are comfortable with resale uncertainty. Historical gains for some brands or periods do not promise future gains for those watches—or for a different reference from the same brand.
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Chrono24’s Head of Brand Engagement, Balazs Ferenczi, described the market in the company’s October 2024 report this way: “Following the unprecedented surge during the COVID-19 pandemic, the secondary market for luxury watches has now returned to normalcy. While sudden value spikes for individual models have become rare, the market is now less influenced by speculators seeking quick profits.” That is a company representative’s characterization, not an independent finding or a guarantee about what happens next.
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A practical decision rule
- Buy for ownership: the watch is worth buying to you even if its resale price is flat or lower.
- Be cautious about an investment case: the expected outcome depends on future appreciation, a premium resale, or selling quickly at an index-derived value.
- Do the model-specific math: use the exact reference, actual purchase price, comparable completed sales, and costs for your location and selling route.
Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
