Airbus’s 2025 forecast projects that the in-service fleet of passenger aircraft and freighters will grow from 24,730 at the end of 2024 to 49,210 at the end of 2044. That is Airbus’s 20-year outlook—not a confirmed future outcome—and it covers passenger aircraft with at least 100 seats plus freighters with payload above 10 tonnes.
What does Airbus’s forecast say?
In its 2025 Global Market Forecast (GMF), Airbus projects 43,420 new passenger and freighter aircraft deliveries between 2025 and 2044. The projected fleet increase is 24,480 aircraft, from 24,730 to 49,210. The delivery total is larger because it includes aircraft that replace older planes as well as aircraft that expand the fleet.
Airbus estimates that 18,930 of the forecast deliveries will replace older, less fuel-efficient aircraft—about 44% of all deliveries. Replacement is not net fleet growth: it renews aircraft already in service. The remaining deliveries support fleet expansion, subject to retirements and other changes reflected in the forecast.
| Airbus 2025 GMF measure | Forecast |
|---|---|
| In-service fleet, end of 2024 | 24,730 aircraft |
| In-service fleet, end of 2044 | 49,210 aircraft |
| New deliveries, 2025–2044 | 43,420 aircraft |
| Typically single-aisle deliveries | 34,250 aircraft |
| Typically widebody deliveries | 9,170 aircraft |
| Deliveries replacing older aircraft | 18,930 aircraft, about 44% of total deliveries |
These figures describe Airbus’s 2025 forecast and its stated fleet definition; they are not an industry-wide consensus or an independently validated prediction. See Airbus’s 2025 GMF announcement and its 2025 forecast summary.
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Why does Airbus expect the fleet to grow?
Airbus forecasts annual passenger-traffic growth of 3.6% over the long term. It links that projection to expanding economies and commerce, urbanization, and a larger middle class—factors that Airbus says can increase demand for air travel. Its forecast associates the traffic outlook with 2.5% global GDP growth, 1.2 billion additional urban residents, and 1.5 billion more people in the global middle class. These are forecast drivers and assumptions, not changes that have already occurred.
Airbus also points to regional variation. In its 2025 outlook, it identifies domestic India as its fastest-growing traffic market, at 8.9%; it forecasts 8.5% growth for emerging Asia–China and 5.3% for Middle East–emerging Asia. These are Airbus’s regional projections, not guarantees.
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What does a near-doubling fleet mean—and what does it not mean?
A projected fleet of 49,210 aircraft does not mean that airlines will add 24,480 aircraft without replacing or retiring any planes. Airbus’s delivery forecast combines expansion with replacement, while its end-of-period fleet counts reflect the net result of fleet changes. The distinction matters: replacement demand can sustain a large aircraft market even when it does not add one aircraft to the fleet for every delivery.
The forecast also has a defined boundary. Airbus counts passenger aircraft with at least 100 seats and freighters with payload above 10 tonnes. It therefore should not be read as a count of every aircraft used commercially, such as smaller regional aircraft below the passenger threshold.
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How does this differ from Airbus’s newer forecast?
Airbus has since published a 2026–2045 Global Market Forecast page that presents a newer passenger-fleet projection. That is a different forecast vintage and a different stated scope from the 2025 GMF’s combined passenger-and-freighter total. The figures should not be combined or treated as a direct like-for-like revision without matching the dates, fleet definitions, baseline counts, and assumptions. Airbus’s current Global Market Forecast page identifies the newer outlook.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Related projections for services and aviation jobs
Airbus’s separate 2025 Global Services Forecast (GSF) addresses the support market around the fleet rather than the GMF’s aircraft-delivery total. It projects 10 billion annual passengers and a US$311 billion services market by 2044. Airbus says the services outlook spans maintenance, modifications and upgrades, digital and connectivity services, and training.
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The GSF also estimates that the industry will need more than 2.35 million additional aviation professionals by 2044: 633,000 pilots, 705,000 technicians, and 1.010 million cabin crew. These are Airbus workforce estimates, not guaranteed job openings or a promise of hiring in any particular country or role. The figures appear in Airbus’s October 2025 services forecast announcement and refer to a separate forecast from the GMF.
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How to read the headline responsibly
- Keep the forecaster and vintage attached: this is Airbus’s 2025 projection, not an observed result.
- Check the scope: the 2025 total includes passenger aircraft of at least 100 seats and freighters above 10 tonnes of payload.
- Separate deliveries from growth: 43,420 deliveries include 18,930 replacement aircraft; the projected net fleet increase is 24,480.
- Do not treat assumptions as certainties: traffic and demographic figures are inputs to Airbus’s outlook.
- Compare forecast vintages carefully: dates and fleet definitions must match before fleet totals can be compared.
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