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In some places, and in the near term, rising data-centre demand can help keep coal plants operating longer. Georgia Power proposed delaying several plant closures in its 2025 resource plan after sharply raising its electricity-demand forecast, with much of the increase attributed to data centres. But that proposal is not proof that AI alone caused a final extension, and it does not mark a nationwide reversal: coal plants continued to retire in the United States, while one federal high-demand scenario still projected falling coal generation.
Why data centres can increase coal generation
Large data centres draw substantial amounts of electricity, often around the clock. When demand rises faster than new power plants, transmission lines and other infrastructure can be built, utilities may look to existing generators for additional output. The International Energy Agency (IEA) identifies greater use of existing coal and gas plants, as well as new generation, as part of the near-term response to growing data-centre demand.
This is a pressure on power systems, not a simple one-to-one link between an AI query and a coal plant. Data-centre demand is only one part of overall electricity demand, and utilities’ decisions also depend on reliability needs, fuel, regulation and investment plans. System-wide forecasts and utility proposals show possible pathways; they do not isolate how much of a particular plant’s operating schedule is caused by AI.
Georgia Power’s proposal shows how the pressure can reach coal plants
In a resource plan submitted in 2025, Georgia Power proposed extending the operation of several generating units. The Associated Press reported that the utility had raised its demand forecast by 2,000 megawatts a year and said it needed 8,000 additional megawatts per year in the near future. The reporting attributed much of the projected increase to data centres.
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| Plant | What Georgia Power proposed in 2025 | Important qualification |
|---|---|---|
| Scherer | Keep a unit previously slated to close in 2028 operating until 2035 or 2038. | The proposal also included gas co-firing. |
| Bowen | Continue operation until 2035 or 2038. | The proposal also included gas co-firing. |
| Gaston | Continue operating through 2034 rather than close in 2028. | Gaston runs mostly on natural gas, with some coal; it is not wholly coal-fired. |
The plan also proposed more output from existing nuclear plants, additional gas capacity, and bids for solar power and battery storage. It required regulatory review. The available reporting establishes what Georgia Power proposed, not the final regulatory decision or the plants’ present operating schedules.
The global data-centre electricity mix still includes a large coal share
The IEA’s 2025 analysis estimated that coal supplied about 30% of the physical electricity serving data centres worldwide. Its estimates put renewables at about 27%, gas at 26% and nuclear at 15%. These figures describe the electricity mix physically serving data centres; they are not the same as operators’ contractual renewable-energy purchases. The mix varies substantially by region.
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For additional data-centre electricity demand through 2030, the IEA’s base case has coal and gas together meeting more than 40%. That is a projection, not a measurement of future generation. The IEA’s 2026 update reported that global data-centre electricity demand grew 17% in 2025, while consumption from AI-focused data centres grew 50%. The categories are not interchangeable: the IEA’s 2025 fuel-mix analysis covers data centres broadly, while the later growth figure separately identifies AI-focused facilities.
The outlook changes by region and over time
The IEA describes different regional starting points: coal has a much larger share of data-centre supply in China, while gas leads in the United States. In its base case, growth in renewables and nuclear pushes coal generation for data-centre operations into absolute decline by 2035. Its faster-demand “Lift-Off” case assigns a larger contribution to fossil fuels, illustrating how the outcome depends on demand and supply assumptions.
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U.S. retirements and forecasts complicate the coal-revival story
Rising electricity demand and coal retirements can happen at the same time. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s March 2025 summary of 2024 organized-market data said electricity demand rose 2.8% across those markets, and that coal had more capacity retirements than any other resource type that year. The commission’s then-chair, Mark Christie, warned that rapidly increasing demand from large customers such as data centres, alongside base-load retirements and a lack of new dispatchable generation, was “not sustainable and must be addressed.”
A separate U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) analysis shows why demand growth alone does not establish that coal generation will rise. In its February 2026 high-demand scenario, the EIA assumed demand growth rates 50% above its baseline in regions with significant data-centre development, while retaining its baseline forecast for generating capacity. Under those assumptions, U.S. coal generation fell by a projected 5.0%, or 37 billion kilowatt-hours, over the next two years. This is a modeled result, not observed generation or an estimate of AI’s causal effect; the EIA noted that the February scenario could differ from its newer March Short-Term Energy Outlook.
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A former coal-plant site is not necessarily a coal comeback
Power companies may value a retired plant’s existing high-voltage grid connection when considering new generation or storage. A redeveloped site might host gas, nuclear, wind or solar generation, or batteries. That can preserve the site’s role in the electricity system without continuing to burn coal. It is a different story from a utility proposal to extend an operating coal plant, such as the Georgia Power plan.
What the evidence supports
The evidence supports a bounded conclusion: growing data-centre loads are adding near-term pressure to electricity systems, and utilities may respond by using existing fossil plants more or proposing to delay retirements. Georgia Power’s plan is a specific example, while the IEA’s forecasts show that the scale and duration of the effect depend on the region and the scenario. Neither establishes that AI has stopped coal’s broader decline. In particular, the Georgia proposal’s final regulatory outcome and the plants’ present operating schedules are not established by the cited reporting.
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