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AgRural raised its estimate for Brazil’s 2024/25 total corn crop to 128.5 million metric tons from 124.8 million, and increased its soybean estimate by 1.3 million tons to 169 million. The June 2, 2025 report attributed the corn revision mainly to better second-crop yields and the soybean change to yield adjustments in several states. These are forecasts, not final harvest totals.
What did AgRural change?
| Crop or measure | AgRural estimate reported June 2, 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Brazil total corn, 2024/25 | 128.5 million metric tons | Up from 124.8 million metric tons |
| Brazil soybeans, 2024/25 | 169 million metric tons | Up 1.3 million tons |
Reuters reported the revisions on June 3, 2025, with a June 2 dateline. The figures are AgRural estimates as reported by Reuters; they should not be read as measured production totals. Reuters report on AgRural’s revised forecasts.
Why did AgRural raise the forecasts?
Corn: improved second-crop yield expectations
AgRural cited higher second-crop corn yields in most areas, with Mato Grosso particularly highlighted. The revision was described as yield-led, not as a change in planted area. Brazil’s second corn crop is planted on land after the soybean harvest and accounts for about 75% of the country’s annual corn production, according to Reuters.
Soybeans: yield adjustments across states
The soybean estimate rose after AgRural fine-tuned yield expectations in several states. The report did not provide state-by-state estimates or identify the size of each adjustment.
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- AGRICULTURAL GRAIN CHECKS: This portable corn moisture tester and grain moisture meter supports on-farm reference checks for farmers, grain handlers, and grain or feed processors
- 25 CROP PROFILES: Select the matching profile for corn, wheat, soybeans, paddy rice, barley, oats, sorghum, and other supported crops before each measurement
- CONSISTENT SAMPLE PREPARATION: Use a representative sample, fill the clean and dry chamber evenly, and tighten the cap securely without overtightening for more consistent readings
- AUTOMATIC TEMPERATURE COMPENSATION: Built-in ATC adjusts the displayed result for sample temperature; for better consistency, let the meter and sample reach similar temperatures before testing
- USER-ADJUSTABLE CORRECTION: When a trusted reference method shows a consistent difference, use the correction setting to adjust the displayed value; the setting remains saved after power-off
Why was the second-corn harvest moving slowly?
By the Thursday before Reuters’ June 2 report, farmers in Brazil’s center-south had harvested 1.3% of second-corn areas, a gain of 0.4 percentage points from the previous week. Rain and lower temperatures slowed fieldwork. Frost was reported in some areas of Mato Grosso do Sul and Paraná, but the damage appeared isolated.
AgRural described the pace this way: “It could have advanced at a stronger pace but ended up limited by rain and lower temperatures,” the company said. A slow harvest and a higher yield forecast are not contradictory: harvest progress tracks how much crop has been gathered, while yield expectations concern estimated production per area.
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How did later Conab estimates compare?
Conab, Brazil’s government crop-supply agency, published different estimates in its own surveys. These are separate agency estimates, not confirmations of AgRural’s numbers or final outcome totals.
| Publisher and survey date | Total corn estimate | Soybean estimate |
|---|---|---|
| AgRural, reported June 2, 2025 | 128.5 million metric tons | 169 million metric tons |
| Conab, ninth 2024/25 survey, June 12, 2025 | 128.3 million tons | 169.6 million tons |
| Conab, eleventh 2024/25 survey, August 14, 2025 | 137 million tons, including 109.6 million tons of second-crop corn | 169.7 million tons |
Conab’s June figures put its corn estimate slightly below AgRural’s and its soybean estimate somewhat above. By its August survey, Conab had raised its total-corn estimate substantially. Differences across these reports reflect estimates issued by different publishers at different points in the season; the figures should not be averaged or treated as though they share one methodology.
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- TESTING EQUIPMENT: Specially calibrated to provide accurate moisture results for grains, the AgraTronix grain tester is reliable equipment that is commonly used by cultivators, farmers and sellers.
- UNIQUE DESIGN: The grain humidity tester is equipped with back lit display with multilingual settings for precise readings even in dark. It has an easy basic mode and advanced precision calibration mode to match local elevator.
- CONVENIENT TO USE: This is a handheld moisture tester for grain can be used with 16 different grain scales. It works well in moisture range of 5% to 40%, depending on the type of grain. Each scale is adjustable to match the local elevator.
- PRECISE READINGS: The MT-16 moisture tester automatically averages up to 99 test results. It has high-frequency capacitive circuit that improves the overall accuracy.
- PRODUCT SPECIFICATIONS: The grain moisture meter has 0.1% moisture display resolution. It can be operated using two 9V batteries. It works well with 32° to 113°F temperature range. It is supplied with protective carrying case with a shoulder strap.
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- 【Applicable Objects】This meter can quickly measure the water content of 14 varieties of such as wheat corn rice peanut soybean and more
- 【Advantage】The humidity tester is designed with a speaker on the back of the meter, which can report the measuring reading and let you know the content of in time
- 【LCD Display】The tester has LCD backlight display, which is very convenient for you to read measuring data at darkness
- 【Features】The meter has high steel probe, which is in use. And it has ergonomically design non-slip handle fits the palm well
- 【Specification】Resolution: 0.1, Setting memory function: Yes, Low battery indication: Yes, Auto power off: 15min, Display: LCD backlight, Product size: 425*70*35mm / 16.7*2.9*1.4in, Weight: Approx. 333g / 11.7oz
- Conab’s ninth 2024/25 grain survey, June 12, 2025
- Conab’s eleventh 2024/25 grain survey, August 14, 2025
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