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AgRural cut its forecast for Brazil’s 2024/25 soybean crop by 2.3 million metric tons, to 165.9 million, on March 24, 2025. The downgrade was driven mainly by hot, dry weather in the south—especially Rio Grande do Sul—while stronger yields and expanded planted area in Mato Grosso partly offset the losses. This is a historical forecast, not a current crop estimate.
Why did AgRural lower its soybean forecast?
In its March 24, 2025 update, AgRural reduced its Brazil 2024/25 soybean estimate from 168.2 million to 165.9 million metric tons. The consultancy attributed the largest part of the cut to drought and heat in southern Brazil, where rainfall had fallen short of expectations. [AgRural’s March 24 release; Reuters report hosted by AgRural]
Rio Grande do Sul was the main source of losses
AgRural lowered Rio Grande do Sul’s expected output to 15 million metric tons, 3 million below its February projection. The state was the only one AgRural expected to produce less soy than in the previous season. Dryness since February also led to smaller cuts in Bahia and Piauí, while Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul had slight reductions. Grain quality in Rio Grande do Sul was another concern reported at the time. [Reuters report hosted by AgRural; AgRural’s March 24 release]
AgRural analyst Alaide Ziemmer said the consultancy had seen reports of substantial yield declines. She also said further cuts were possible if the hot, dry conditions continued: when the forecast was made on March 17, rain was expected in some areas but did not arrive. That was a risk expressed at the time, not confirmation that additional reductions later occurred. [Reuters report hosted by AgRural]
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Mato Grosso partly cushioned the national downgrade
AgRural estimated Mato Grosso production at 49.5 million metric tons. Ziemmer credited favorable weather, record yields and a 357,000-hectare increase in planted area in the state. Those gains helped compensate for reductions elsewhere, but not enough to prevent a lower national estimate. The March estimate was 5.6 million metric tons below AgRural’s December 2024 peak forecast of 171.5 million. [Reuters report hosted by AgRural; AgRural’s March 24 release]
How to read the AgRural figure alongside Conab’s estimate
Brazil’s government crop agency Conab estimated the 2024/25 soybean harvest at 167.4 million metric tons in its March 13, 2025 survey. That was 1.5 million tons above AgRural’s estimate released 11 days later. The figures came from separate estimates published on different dates, so the gap is a dated comparison—not, by itself, evidence that one source was wrong. The available information does not establish which estimate was more accurate. [Conab’s grain survey information; AgRural’s March 24 release]
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Conab said planting delays and excessive January rain contributed to a slow start to harvesting, while lower rainfall in February accelerated the harvest. AgRural’s later cut emphasized continued heat and dryness in the south. These accounts reflect estimates and conditions available at different points in March, not a head-to-head assessment using identical methods.
| Source and release date | Brazil 2024/25 soybean estimate | Context reported with the estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Conab, March 13, 2025 | 167.4 million metric tons; 13.3% above the previous crop | Planting delays and excessive January rain slowed the harvest start; reduced February rainfall accelerated harvesting. |
| AgRural, March 24, 2025 | 165.9 million metric tons, down 2.3 million from its preceding estimate of 168.2 million | Drought and heat in the south, especially Rio Grande do Sul, drove the downgrade; stronger yields in other states, particularly Mato Grosso, partly offset it. |
Harvest progress when AgRural issued its forecast
By March 20, 2025, AgRural reported that 77% of Brazil’s planted soybean area had been harvested, compared with 69% at the same point in the previous season. The release described this as the highest share harvested by that point since the consultancy began its weekly state surveys in 2010/11. Harvest progress gives useful timing context, but it does not erase the regional yield and quality risks behind the forecast revision. [AgRural’s March 24 release]
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- Productive - Chiba Green Soybean germinates in 10-14 days when soil temps are 65-75°F. Plant 1” deep and space 4-6” apart in an area with full sun. This variety will grow 1-3’ tall with a spread of 12-16”. Beans will mature in 65-75 days, plant in USDA zones 3-10.
- Good Eats - Harvest when pods are green and enjoy edamame or allow the pods to dry and shell to eat them boiled or steamed.
- Easy to Grow - Instructions included on each packet. Plus, we are available to answer all your questions. If these seeds don’t germinate, we will happily make it right for you.
- Safe and Sustainable - Our operation is fully solar powered, and Sow Right Seeds has taken the Safe Seed Pledge to sell only fresh Non-GMO heirloom seeds for you and your family.
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