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Agroconsult raised its interim forecast for Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean crop by 850,000 metric tons, to 183.1 million metric tons, in an update dated March 5, 2026. The consultancy kept its planted-area estimate at 48.8 million hectares. This was a forecast made while its nationwide Rally da Safra crop tour was still underway—not a final harvest result.
What changed in Agroconsult’s March forecast?
Reuters reported on March 6, 2026, that Agroconsult’s estimate had risen 850,000 metric tons from its January figure to 183.1 million metric tons. The consultancy described the crop as having the potential to set a record for the world’s largest soybean producer; the forecast was 6.4% above the previous season, according to Reuters. Both figures describe Agroconsult’s estimate at that point in the season, not an official final tally. Reuters’ March 6 report covered the revision.
Was the increase due to more planted land?
No increase in planted area was reported as the reason for the revision: Agroconsult kept its estimate at 48.8 million hectares in March. The acreage figure was unchanged from its January estimate, so the reported production increase should not be attributed to an expanded area forecast. Reuters did not specify a revised yield assumption in its account.
How did weather affect the crop outlook?
Conditions varied across Brazil, and regional gains and losses did not point in a single direction.
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- Rio Grande do Sul: Reuters reported Agroconsult’s estimate of 2 million metric tons in losses associated with irregular rainfall. The state had not yet been covered by the tour when Reuters reported the March update.
- Mato Grosso and Paraná: Agroconsult’s public summary described high crop potential in both states.
- Parts of the Center-West: Agroconsult said excess rain in January and February affected grain weight and quality.
- Harvest progress: About 44% of Brazil’s soybean area had been harvested by the end of February, below the share harvested at the same point a year earlier, according to Agroconsult’s summary.
These observations help explain why a national forecast can combine strong prospects in some areas with weather-related losses or quality concerns in others. They do not establish that any one regional factor alone caused the 850,000-ton revision.
Why was the 183.1-million-ton figure still provisional?
Agroconsult’s Rally da Safra teams had visited 11 states and the Federal District, but the field assessment was incomplete. Rio Grande do Sul remained to be surveyed, and the tour was expected to finish its fieldwork in less than a month from the March 6 report. Valmir Assarice, the tour’s technical coordinator, cautioned: “The scenario can still change.”
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The season’s earlier yield outlook also needs to be kept separate from the March production update. On January 15, before the tour, Agroconsult’s infographic put the national average at 62.3 sacks per hectare, 3.7% above 2024/25, and gave Rio Grande do Sul a forecast of 52 sacks per hectare. Those were pre-tour outlook figures; they should not be treated as the stated yield basis for the later March revision. Agroconsult’s January 15 infographic presented that earlier outlook.
How does the later final Rally da Safra result compare?
In a later public post, Agroconsult reported final Rally da Safra soybean results of 184.7 million metric tons, 49.1 million hectares, and 62.7 sacks per hectare. It said production was up 6.7% from 2024/25. The post’s exact publication date was not provided, so these figures are best described as later final results rather than assigned a more precise date. They represent a subsequent stage of the assessment and do not replace what Agroconsult forecast in March.
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How should readers compare Agroconsult’s estimate with IBGE’s?
Keep the publisher and date attached to each number. Agroconsult’s Rally da Safra figures are crop-tour estimates at particular stages of field assessment. IBGE’s Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production is a separate statistical series: IBGE says it follows crops from planting intention through harvest and estimates the next year’s crop in October, November, and December. Its estimates should not be treated as the same series or method as Agroconsult’s. IBGE’s overview of the Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production describes its monitoring schedule.
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