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AgResource lowered its forecast for Brazil’s total 2024/25 corn crop to 122.39 million metric tons on January 13, 2025, from 123.56 million metric tons. The reduction was less than 1%. Reuters reported the change on January 14, 2025; this is a dated consultancy forecast, not a final production figure.
Why AgResource lowered its forecast
The stated concern was delayed soybean harvesting. In Brazil, second-crop corn is planted in the same fields after soybeans are harvested. A late soybean harvest can therefore narrow the window for planting the corn crop, creating a risk to expected production. The report described a potential constraint, not proof that the delay had already reduced output.
Reuters reported that the second corn crop accounts for about 70% to 75% of Brazil’s total corn production. That makes the timing of the soybean harvest especially relevant to the national corn outlook.
How to interpret the estimate
The 122.39 million metric ton figure was AgResource’s forecast at a particular point in the 2024/25 season. It should not be read as Brazil’s final harvest total or as a consensus forecast. Estimates from other publishers differed and were issued at different times.
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| Publisher and forecast | Figure | How to read it |
|---|---|---|
| AgResource, January 13, 2025 | 122.39 million metric tons, down from 123.56 million | AgResource’s revised forecast for Brazil’s total 2024/25 corn crop, reported by Reuters via Agriculture.com on January 14, 2025. |
| IBGE, initial forecast published in late 2024 | 115.9 million tonnes | IBGE’s initial estimate for the 2025 harvest, a separate agency forecast rather than a direct revision of AgResource’s 2024/25 figure. See IBGE’s release. |
| USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, report BR2025-0023 | 134 million metric tons | A later estimate for the 2024/25 crop. Its publisher and forecast vintage differ from AgResource’s; see the USDA FAS report. |
These figures are not a like-for-like series that can be reconciled from the published numbers alone. Compare the publisher, report date, crop or marketing-year definition, and forecast vintage before drawing conclusions about why estimates differ. AgResource’s company site lists its media updates, including the January 13 change.
Weather context in AgResource’s report
AgResource also discussed La Niña risk and rainfall. Reuters attributed this statement to the company: “The risk of La Niña has returned and its impacts could affect the quality of soybean crops, especially in the later or replanted areas.” AgResource added that advancing rains over central-northern Brazil could help offset possible losses in some states and regions. These comments concern weather risks and possible offsets; the report does not identify which states or crop components accounted for the corn forecast adjustment.
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