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Outbyte PC Repair FREERepair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →Outbyte Driver Updater FREEFix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →Adobe forecasts that traffic from AI tools to U.S. retail websites will rise 130% year over year during the 2026 holiday season, from Nov. 1 through Dec. 31. That is a forecast for shoppers clicking through from AI tools to retailers—not a prediction that holiday sales will grow 130%.
What does AI-driven retail traffic mean?
Adobe uses the term for visits that begin when shoppers click a link from an AI tool to a retailer’s website. In practical terms, an AI assistant might help someone research a product or find a deal, then send that shopper to a store’s site. Adobe’s measure counts the resulting referral traffic; it does not measure all use of AI during shopping or every purchase influenced by AI.
Adobe says its forecast draws on Adobe Analytics data covering more than 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million SKUs and 18 product categories. Those are Adobe’s descriptions of its own data and approach.
Is Adobe saying holiday sales will increase 130%?
No. The 130% figure is Adobe’s year-over-year forecast for AI-referred traffic to U.S. retail sites over the 2026 holiday period. Adobe separately projects $275.1 billion in U.S. online sales from Nov. 1 through Dec. 31, up 6.7% year over year. The two figures describe different measures: referral visits and total online sales.
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The cited Adobe pages do not provide an independent validation or an error range for the 130% forecast. It should be read as Adobe’s company forecast, not as a guaranteed outcome or evidence that AI referrals will cause a particular change in consumer spending.
Which shopping days are forecast to see the biggest increases?
Adobe’s day-level forecasts put the largest listed increase on Thanksgiving, followed by Black Friday and Cyber Monday.
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| Shopping day | Adobe’s forecast year-over-year increase in AI traffic |
|---|---|
| Thanksgiving | 159% |
| Black Friday | 95% |
| Cyber Monday | 88% |
Each percentage is a forecast for AI-referred traffic to U.S. retail sites on that day, not a sales-growth estimate.
How does the forecast compare with recent and prior figures?
Adobe reported that AI-driven traffic to retail sites was up 127% year over year in August 2026. That recent reading offers context for the holiday forecast, but it does not establish that the August pace will continue through November and December.
For the 2025 holiday season, Adobe reported that traffic to retail sites from generative AI tools rose 693.4% compared with the prior year. That is a reported result for the previous season, whereas 130% is a forecast for 2026. The percentages refer to different holiday periods and should not be treated as a like-for-like prediction of sales or of AI’s share of purchases.
Adobe’s earlier March 2025 analysis defined the metric as shoppers clicking through to retailer sites. It reported a 1,300% year-over-year increase for Nov. 1–Dec. 31, 2024, and a 1,200% increase in February 2025 compared with July 2024. These historical comparisons use other measurement windows; they do not replace Adobe’s 2026 forecast.
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What the figures can—and cannot—tell shoppers
The forecast suggests Adobe expects more shoppers to arrive at retail websites through AI tools during the holiday period. Adobe describes AI tools as shopping assistants for product research and deal-finding, but referral growth alone does not show how many referred visitors will buy, how much they will spend, or whether AI changes total holiday spending.
Adobe’s forecast is specific to U.S. retail-site traffic and the Nov. 1–Dec. 31, 2026 period. It is not a global estimate, a measure of conversion rates, or a forecast for the proportion of purchases shaped by AI.
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