“A flock of black swans” was Kevin McNew’s March 2022 description of several shocks hitting agriculture at once—not a claim about current markets. In a March 16, 2022, Successful Farming article, the Farmers Business Network chief economist pointed to pandemic-era supply-chain problems, inflation, drought, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. He saw the combination as supportive of grain prices but warned that rising costs could squeeze farmers at the same time.
What did “a flock of black swans” mean?
In Bill Spiegel’s March 16, 2022, article, a “black swan” meant an unlikely, surprising event with a substantial ripple effect on the economy. The “flock” was the accumulation of several disruptions, rather than one isolated event. McNew discussed the outlook at the Commodity Classic in New Orleans on March 10, 2022; a same-day Successful Farming roundup also identified him as FBN’s chief economist.
The four disruptions identified in the article
- COVID-19 and supply chains: Pandemic-related disruptions continued to affect the movement and availability of goods.
- Inflation: Rising commodity and consumer prices added pressure across the economy.
- Drought: Dry conditions in the United States, Canada, and Brazil threatened agricultural production.
- Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: The war added uncertainty and pressure to grain markets already facing other disruptions.
What was the 2022 grain-price outlook?
McNew described grain-market fundamentals as bullish and argued that the war could intensify existing pressures. In March 2022, he forecast that grain prices would reach record highs that year. His exact statement was: “We think grain prices will smash record highs in 2022.” This was a forecast at the time, not proof that the prediction came true and not a current market outlook.
Why could higher grain prices still leave farmers under pressure?
The article set the potential for stronger crop revenue against a sharp rise in production costs. It highlighted expensive fertilizer, with fertilizer prices affected by natural-gas prices, and record-high chemical costs. Higher selling prices might offer an opportunity, but higher input expenses could absorb part of the gain.
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Land costs and fertilizer decisions
Successful Farming reported cash rents had risen by $40 to $80 per acre. The article’s relevant passage does not specify the comparison period or geography, so that figure should not be read as a universal or current increase.
In a Farmers Business Network poll reported by the article, more than half of 2,970 FBN farmer members who responded said they would change their fertilizer-management plans because of fertilizer prices. The story does not provide enough sampling information to treat this result as representative of farmers generally; it describes respondents’ intentions in 2022, not verified later actions.
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The article also noted that more-efficient Corn Belt farms used about 0.9 pounds of nitrogen per bushel of corn. That ratio was context for its discussion of efficiency, not a universal agronomic target or recommendation.
What did farmers say about equipment spending?
The same FBN poll, as reported in March 2022, captured respondents’ intentions for the next 12 months:
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| Reported intention | Share |
|---|---|
| Would not buy large equipment | 53% |
| Planned to buy used equipment | 34% |
| Planned to buy new equipment | 13% |
These were stated plans, not records of purchases made afterward or a description of current spending. The article does not provide a survey method or margin of error.
What should farmers do when prices and costs are both volatile?
McNew’s advice, as summarized by Spiegel, was to act decisively: trim input costs, improve efficiency, and assess strategic investments by their expected return. It was broad guidance for farmers facing uncertainty, not individualized financial or agronomic advice.
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- Look at the return, not just the purchase: Evaluate a proposed investment against the value it is expected to produce and the costs it adds.
- Seek efficiency where it changes the economics: Review input use and operating practices, while avoiding the assumption that one nitrogen-use ratio applies to every farm.
- Consider capital commitment carefully: The poll’s 2022 responses show that some members planned to avoid large equipment purchases or choose used equipment, but they do not establish the right choice for any particular operation.
How to read this story today
The article is a dated account of the risks farmers faced in early 2022. Its grain-price statement was a forecast, its poll figures recorded respondent intentions, and its rent increase lacked a stated comparison period and geography. The value of the story now is its description of a farm-economics tension: favorable commodity prices can coincide with rising costs, so expected revenue alone does not determine whether a crop or investment will pay.
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