PC shipments rose in 2025, but analysts forecast a decline in 2026 as memory and storage costs climb. That does not mean every kind of “sales” is falling: hardware shipments, consumer purchases and game revenue are different measures. Evidence for a broad console-hardware recovery is not established by the available figures.
What the numbers say about PC sales
Gartner’s preliminary estimate puts worldwide PC shipments at 270.2 million in 2025, up 9.1% from 2024. Shipments also increased 9.3% year over year in the fourth quarter. Gartner counts desktop and laptop computers running Windows, macOS or Chrome OS shipped into sales channels; its estimate is not a direct count of purchases by consumers. Gartner’s January 20, 2026 estimate therefore contradicts the idea that PC shipments were already down for the full year 2025.
Why forecasts point to a 2026 decline
The 2026 figures are forecasts, not completed-year results. Gartner’s February 26, 2026 forecast projected a 10.4% decline in worldwide PC shipments versus 2025. IDC’s 2026 outlook projected an 11.3% full-year decline. These estimates differ in size and come from separate forecasters and forecast vintages; neither is a final tally.
Both firms identify cost and supply pressures. Gartner expects combined DRAM and SSD prices to rise 130% by the end of 2026 compared with 2025, and forecasts PC prices rising 17%. These are projected changes, not observed price increases. Gartner says higher memory costs are expected to reduce shipments and raise device prices. IDC also points to memory and storage shortages, weaker consumer purchasing power, regional inflation and currency volatility. Those are analysts’ explanations, not quantified causal shares.
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Gartner attributed 2025 shipment growth to the Windows 11 upgrade cycle, strong consumer and business demand, and advance buying ahead of expected memory-price increases and shortages. That mix helps explain why shipments could rise in 2025 while the outlook worsens for 2026.
Does games-industry growth mean console sales are recovering?
No. Newzoo reported 7% year-over-year growth in combined PC and console games-industry revenue in 2025. Revenue from games is not a count of PCs or consoles sold, and it does not establish that console hardware sales rose. Newzoo’s 2026 report addresses the games market, a different measure from hardware shipments or retail unit sales.
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Nintendo reported 23.68 million cumulative Switch 2 hardware units as of June 30, 2026. This is a manufacturer’s figure for one platform, not a measure of the whole console market or proof of an overall trend. Nintendo’s sales data is useful for that platform specifically, but cannot stand in for global console sales.
The available figures do not establish a single worldwide direction for aggregate console hardware sales. To assess a claim that “console sales” are down or stabilizing, a report needs to specify geography, period, whether it counts shipments or retail purchases, and whether it covers one platform or the whole market.
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What “stabilizing” means—and what it does not
IDC says stabilization of the broader personal computing device (PCD) market is not expected before 2028. That is a forecast about PCDs, not a declaration that PC and console hardware sales as a combined global market have already stabilized. Gartner’s 2025 PC shipment rebound is an observed estimate for one year; the 2026 contraction and 2028 timing are outlooks. They should not be blended into a claim that all hardware sales have already found a floor.
Gartner analyst Ranjit Atwal forecast that “The sub-$500 entry-level PC segment will disappear by 2028.” This is a prediction about a price segment, not a description of current availability or a guarantee that every low-cost PC will vanish. Gartner’s February 2026 outlook links that expectation to the pressure of rising memory costs.
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How to read future market headlines
- Check the measure: shipments to channels, retail unit sales, hardware revenue and games revenue answer different questions.
- Check the period and status: a completed-year estimate is not interchangeable with a forecast for the year ahead.
- Check the scope: worldwide totals, regional results and a single platform’s cumulative sales are not equivalent.
- Check the date: forecasts can change; keep the analyst and publication vintage attached to each projection.
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