North Dakota State University Extension projects low or negative profitability for most crops in most regions in 2026. The main pressure is lower commodity prices, while input and ownership costs are flat to somewhat higher. These are regional projections—not a verdict on every farm: actual results depend on each operation’s costs, yields, prices, labor, management and risk.
What NDSU’s 2026 crop budgets project
NDSU Extension’s February 6, 2026, crop-budget release describes weak projected profitability across most crops and multicounty regions. Farm management specialist Ron Haugen said, “This year, in most regions, and for most crops, the projected profitability is low or negative.” The budgets do not establish one statewide profitability rate, and the projection should not be read as saying that every North Dakota farm will lose money.
The principal pressure in NDSU’s analysis is lower commodity prices. Cost movements are mixed rather than uniformly higher:
- Fertilizer prices are up, and total fertilizer cost per acre is expected to exceed 2025 levels. However, NDSU expects application rates to be lower in most regions, reflecting higher-than-average soil fertility after a warm, wet fall in 2025.
- Chemical expenses are generally flat.
- Fuel and interest costs are down.
- Ownership and repair costs are up.
NDSU notes that some specialty crops may show positive projected returns, but they typically have limited contracts and acreage and may carry higher risk. A positive budget result for one crop is not by itself a recommendation to switch: labor, management requirements and risk differ. Haugen put it this way: “There is no perfect comparison of crops because there are different levels of labor, management and risk to consider.” Read NDSU Extension’s 2026 crop-budget release.
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Why rising crop receipts do not mean farms are profitable
A separate Spring 2026 forecast from NDSU’s Center for Agricultural Policy and Trade Studies and the University of Missouri’s Rural & Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center projects North Dakota crop receipts will rise 3% to $9.05 billion in 2026. The forecast attributes the increase to higher corn and soybean revenues, while wheat receipts are expected to decline. It also identifies government support, commodity markets and input costs as factors affecting the state’s farm-income outlook.
Crop receipts measure aggregate revenue; crop budgets estimate returns after costs. Receipts can rise even while many farms face low or negative projected margins, particularly if revenue gains are concentrated in some crops or costs remain substantial. The receipts figure is a forecast, not a final result or evidence that every crop or farm will be profitable. See the Spring 2026 North Dakota Farm Income Outlook summary.
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Market pressures and the limits of a statewide outlook
A January 5, 2026, North Dakota Monitor report described weak crop prices and high costs, as well as concerns about access to the China soybean market and growing production in Brazil. Those are market and policy concerns reported by the Monitor and its sources, not proof that any one factor determines an individual farm’s results. Former North Dakota Farmers Union president Mark Watne said, “So I think it’s worrisome. I think we may become more of a residual supplier (to China) than we really want to be.” The report also quoted Bank of North Dakota President Don Morgan describing “prolonged stress” on the state’s agricultural industry. Read the North Dakota Monitor report.
No single statewide number can capture the outlook for every operation. Regional yields and prices, crop mix, input and ownership costs, labor, management choices and exposure to risk all affect farm-level returns. NDSU’s crop budgets estimate returns to labor and management, but exclude price and yield variability; they are a planning guide, not a guarantee of realized income.
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How to use the budgets for a farm-specific decision
- Choose the relevant region and crop. Start with the NDSU budget for the operation’s region and crop rather than treating a statewide headline as a farm forecast.
- Replace assumptions with farm records. Enter the operation’s own expected prices and yields, input costs, ownership costs, and other relevant estimates in NDSU’s spreadsheet tools.
- Account for variability. Since the published budgets exclude price and yield variability, examine more than one plausible price-and-yield scenario before making a planting, borrowing or spending decision.
- Compare the whole operation, not just crop returns. Consider labor, management demands, contracts and risk alongside projected returns. NDSU cautions that crops are not perfectly comparable on returns alone.
Where to check for assistance
The North Dakota Monitor reported that the state established loan programs to help producers facing economic hardship and recover from storm damage. For federal loans, conservation, disaster recovery and income-support information, consult the USDA Farm Service Agency’s North Dakota page. Program availability, eligibility and deadlines can change, so verify current details directly with FSA and ask the agency how the rules apply to your operation. USDA Farm Service Agency: North Dakota.
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