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More U.S. biodiesel plants could shut down in 2024, University of Illinois agricultural economist Scott Irwin warned—but only if the losses plants were experiencing continued. His March 2024 analysis estimated that biodiesel production had returned to an average loss of 19 cents per gallon after a profitable stretch, while noting that results varied by time period and plant.
What Irwin forecast—and what he did not
Irwin’s warning was conditional, not a prediction that a specific number of plants would close. He wrote: “If the losses in 2024 to date continue, more biodiesel plant shutdowns may be in the offing.” His analysis explained why further closures were plausible if weak economics persisted; it did not establish that every plant was losing money or that additional closures were certain.
There were already specific closure announcements in view. Chevron announced the closures of its biodiesel plants in Ralston, Iowa, and DeForest, Wisconsin. ProAg reported that the two sites had a combined annual volume of 50 million gallons. Chevron’s 2024 Form 10-K later stated that two biofuel refineries were idled during 2024. That filing confirms idling in that year, but the cited passage does not establish whether the facilities later restarted, changed ownership, or were permanently closed.
How biodiesel plant economics changed during the boom
Irwin’s representative-plant model found sharply different average results across three phases of the renewable diesel boom:
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| Period | Estimated average result |
|---|---|
| January 2021–May 2022 | Loss of $0.59 per gallon |
| June 2022–May 2023 | Profit of $0.41 per gallon |
| June 2023–March 2024 | Loss of $0.19 per gallon |
Across the boom period Irwin examined, the model’s average result was a loss of $0.20 per gallon. These are estimated production economics for a representative Iowa plant, not reported earnings for every biodiesel producer. Irwin noted that actual facilities differ in capacity, efficiency, and feedstock.
Why growing renewable diesel capacity could pressure biodiesel
Renewable diesel expansion mattered because the two industries can compete for feedstocks such as soybean oil. Irwin’s analysis linked the renewable diesel boom to pressure on FAME biodiesel prices and profits. A larger renewable diesel sector therefore did not automatically mean better margins for conventional biodiesel plants: the effect depended on the prices plants received and their production costs.
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ProAg, attributing the figures to USDA, reported that roughly half of U.S. soybean oil would be used in biofuels in 2024, compared with 38% in 2022. That figure describes feedstock use; by itself, it does not show whether biodiesel producers were profitable or whether demand for their fuel was sufficient to cover costs.
How Irwin estimated plant profits
The analysis compared weekly biodiesel prices from USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS), OPIS, and Fastmarkets through March 1, 2024. For its profitability model, it selected Fastmarkets’ FOB Upper Midwest plant price because it reflected plant-level prices in a region with many Iowa plants. The price series were not interchangeable: Irwin said AMS had not been reported since December 8, 2023, while OPIS represented wholesale Chicago transactions rather than Iowa plant prices.
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Irwin used a modified model of a representative Iowa biodiesel plant. He adjusted marketing fees and certain variable costs other than soybean oil and natural gas using the U.S. Consumer Price Index, and included a rail transportation charge for soybean oil. The modeled result is consequently sensitive to both the chosen price series and assumptions about a typical plant’s costs.
What capacity data added to the warning
Irwin’s analysis reported that EIA-estimated operable U.S. FAME biodiesel capacity fell by 372 million gallons, or 15%, from 2.461 billion gallons in September 2021 to 2.089 billion gallons in July 2022. Capacity then stabilized after July 2022, according to the analysis. Irwin described shutdown signals as mainly negative during 2024 to that point, making continued losses a reason to take the possibility of further idling seriously—not proof that more plants would close.
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What readers can conclude today
The March 2024 warning captured a conditional risk: modeled biodiesel economics had turned negative again, and persistent losses could prompt more shutdowns. The cited sources document Chevron’s two facilities being idled in 2024, but do not establish their later status or provide a complete accounting of plant closures after that year. The forecast should therefore be read as a historical warning, not as confirmation of what happened at every U.S. biodiesel plant.
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