Mexico finished fiscal 2024 as the largest customer for U.S. food and agricultural exports, according to a November 2024 report by the Food & Environment Reporting Network (FERN). That was a change from February, when the U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast Mexico would buy $28.4 billion in U.S. food and farm goods—$300 million less than China. The ranking is about agricultural exports, not total trade between the countries.
What changed between the forecast and the final ranking?
| Measure | February 2024 forecast | November 2024 reported result |
|---|---|---|
| Period | U.S. fiscal 2024 | U.S. fiscal 2024 |
| Data status | USDA forecast, reported by FERN | FERN account of Census Bureau data tracked by USDA |
| Mexico | $28.4 billion in projected U.S. food and agricultural exports | Sales to Mexico rose 7 percent; Mexico ranked first among U.S. agricultural export customers |
| China | Forecast leader, $300 million ahead of Mexico | Ranked third, behind Canada |
In February, FERN reported the USDA forecast that Mexico would buy a record $28.4 billion in U.S. food and agricultural exports during fiscal 2024, just $300 million short of China’s forecast total. In November, FERN reported that Mexico’s sales had risen 7 percent over the fiscal year and that it had finished as the leading U.S. agricultural export customer, with China third behind Canada. The first figure was a projection; the later report described the observed ranking. FERN’s February forecast report and November follow-up cover the two stages.
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What does “No. 1 export market” mean here?
It means Mexico was the largest foreign customer for U.S. food and agricultural exports in fiscal 2024. It does not mean Mexico became the largest destination for every U.S. export, nor does it compare the countries’ total two-way trade. The headline’s ranking is specific to U.S. agricultural sales and to that fiscal year.
That distinction matters because the broader trade relationship is much larger and measured differently. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) says U.S. goods exports to Mexico were $337.3 billion in 2025 and total U.S.–Mexico goods trade was $871.6 billion. Those calendar-year goods figures are not agricultural export totals and cannot be substituted for the fiscal 2024 ranking. The USMCA, which replaced NAFTA, entered into force on July 1, 2020. USTR’s Mexico profile provides the broader trade figures and agreement context.
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Why is Mexico a major market for U.S. farm goods?
The countries have closely connected trade and supply chains. USTR reports that more than 80 percent of Mexico’s goods exports went to the United States in 2024, while more than 40 percent of Mexico’s goods imports came from the United States. It describes long-standing integration in industries including autos, electronics, medical devices and textiles. This broader connection helps explain the scale of cross-border commerce, but it does not by itself explain the agricultural ranking.
USTR lists more than $30 billion in U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico and names corn, pork and pork products, dairy products, and soybeans among the goods shipped. Mexico also exports agricultural products to the United States, including fresh vegetables, beer, distilled spirits and fresh fruit. These are flows in both directions, not a single measure of which country is the larger agricultural market for the other.
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What role did China’s trade with Brazil play?
FERN reported in February 2024 that China was buying more corn and soybeans from Brazil and less from the United States. That shift offers context for the forecast’s narrowing gap, but the cited coverage does not establish it as the sole cause of Mexico’s eventual rise to first place. The later ranking reflects the reported fiscal-year sales comparison; it should not be reduced to one commodity or one explanation.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How does Mexico–China trade fit into the picture?
Mexico’s trade with China is a separate relationship and does not determine which country is the top customer for U.S. agricultural exports. Mexico’s Ministry of Economy Data México reports that copper ores and concentrates were Mexico’s leading export to China in 2024, valued at $2.315 billion. Its July 2026 figures show Mexican exports to China of $1.088 billion and imports from China of $13.888 billion. These figures describe Mexico–China trade, not U.S. farm exports or the fiscal 2024 agricultural ranking. Data México’s China trade profile presents that bilateral context.
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