China’s African swine fever (ASF) outbreak created a major, but temporary, opening for pork exporters, including those in the United States. USDA later estimated that China lost 27.9 million metric tons of pork output from late 2018 to early 2021. But the 2018 headline was an interview-era forecast, not a lasting promise of higher U.S. exports: China’s production returned to its pre-outbreak level in 2021, and its import outlook has since weakened.
What the 2018 headline meant
Betsy Freese’s October 29, 2018 article in Successful Farming reported an interview with Christine McCracken, then Rabobank’s executive director, animal protein. The central question was whether China would replace pork lost to ASF by importing more, and whether U.S. producers could benefit. McCracken described the potential upside as “fantastic” and “tangible and probable,” while framing the issue as “Risk and reward.” Those were her assessments at the time, not current market guidance. Read the original 2018 interview.
How large was China’s pork shortage?
USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) estimated that China lost 27.9 million metric tons of pork output from late 2018 to early 2021. ERS also reported that Chinese pork prices more than doubled and described the herd’s decline and recovery as a roughly 30-month cycle. These figures describe the scale and duration of the historical shock, rather than a continuing shortage. USDA ERS: How China’s African Swine Fever Outbreaks Affected Global Pork Markets.
Why the export opportunity faded
Higher imports could help fill a gap when domestic production falls, but they depend on the size and duration of that gap. China’s pork production returned to its pre-ASF level in 2021. As domestic supply recovered, shipments from major exporters declined, ending the exceptional import opportunity associated with the outbreak. USDA ERS: Pork exports to China surged as African swine fever curtailed China’s pork output.
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- Seal in flavor and freshness. Seal out air and light. These bags are great for storing ground meat. Will stuff 100 lbs. of Pork Sausage.
- Quality, leak proof, 2 millimeter thick white opaque polyethylene. (Make sure you check the competition's bag thickness!)
- Unstuffed Bag: 10.5 Inches High x 4.5 Inches Wide X 2mm Thick. Feature 1 inch bottom gusset for added burst protection.
- TIP: After stuffing with your ground meat, store the bags in your freezer in an upright position. If the bag is laid on it's side, liquid may seep out to make a mess. After the freezer bag is frozen solid you can lay it on it's side to make more room in your freezer.
- All bags printed with Safe Handling Panel on the back.
What the more recent trade figures show
The latest outlook in the cited USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) report is very different from the post-outbreak premise. In its April 2026 outlook, FAS forecasts China’s pork imports will fall 16 percent in 2026 amid ample supplies. FAS also reports that U.S. pork exports declined 2 percent in 2025, including a 26 percent decline in shipments to China. The 2026 figure is a forecast; the 2025 figures describe reported export changes. USDA FAS, Animal Diseases Continue to Shape 2026 Global Pork Trade.
What this means for U.S. producers and exporters
China’s outbreak showed how a major foreign production shock can create export demand, but the subsequent recovery illustrates why that demand may not last. FAS reports U.S. exporters have shifted more toward Mexico and Central America as China-bound shipments weakened, while also competing in other Asian markets. For businesses exposed to export markets, the practical consideration is not simply whether a destination has bought more pork in the past; it is how concentrated sales are in that market, what its domestic production and import outlook look like, and whether disease-related restrictions could interrupt trade.
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The disease risk behind the trade story
ASF is a contagious, deadly disease of domestic and feral swine. USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service says the virus does not infect people, there is no treatment or vaccine, and prevention is the best protection. On its page last modified July 30, 2025, APHIS said ASF had never been found in the United States. That is a dated status statement, not a guarantee about future conditions. An outbreak can affect trade as well as production, so the upside from foreign shortages comes with disease-related market risk. USDA APHIS: African Swine Fever.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to read the headline today
The headline captured a plausible 2018 opportunity: severe losses in China could increase demand for imported pork and benefit U.S. exporters. The historical evidence confirms that the outbreak was substantial, but it does not make the opportunity permanent or validate every forecast made at the time. China’s production recovered, and current trade conditions reflect ample supply and weaker import demand. The durable lesson is that export gains tied to a foreign disease shock can reverse as production recovers or trade conditions change.
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Rank #3
- Seal in flavor and freshness. Seal out air and light. These bags are great for storing ground meat. Will stuff 50 lbs. of Pork Sausage.
- Quality, leak proof, 2 millimeter thick white opaque polyethylene. (Make sure you check the competition's bag thickness!)
- Unstuffed Bag: 10.5 Inches High x 4.5 Inches Wide X 2mm Thick. Feature 1 inch bottom gusset for added burst protection.
- TIP: After stuffing with your ground meat, store the bags in your freezer in an upright position. If the bag is laid on it's side, liquid may seep out to make a mess. After the freezer bag is frozen solid you can lay it on it's side to make more room in your freezer.
- All bags printed with Safe Handling Panel on the back.
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