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Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errorsFree Scan →Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →The International Monetary Fund’s August 2023 warning was that Argentina’s drought could cut grain exports by more than US$20 billion—about 3.2% of GDP—not that the drought had already reduced GDP by three percentage points. The IMF then forecast a 2.5% contraction in real GDP for 2023. Its later review recorded a smaller, 1.5% contraction for the year. Those figures measure different things: projected export losses, a forecast for total economic output, and the eventual annual GDP result.
What did “three points” mean?
In August 2023, the IMF estimated that drought-related grain export losses would exceed US$20 billion, equal to 3.2% of Argentina’s GDP and around 25% of its goods exports. That comparison describes the value of exports at risk relative to the size of the economy. It is not a measure of GDP falling by 3.2 percentage points.
At the same time, the IMF forecast that real GDP—the inflation-adjusted value of goods and services produced—would contract 2.5% over 2023. In its later ex-post evaluation, published in December 2024, the IMF reported that real GDP actually contracted 1.5% that year. The 2023 number was a forecast made during the crisis; the later figure is the recorded annual outcome. Neither establishes that the drought alone caused a three-point GDP decline.
| Measure | Figure | What it describes |
|---|---|---|
| Projected grain export loss | More than US$20 billion; 3.2% of GDP; around 25% of goods exports | IMF estimate in August 2023, not a GDP contraction. |
| Forecast annual real GDP change | −2.5% | IMF forecast for Argentina’s 2023 economy in its August 2023 review. |
| Recorded annual real GDP change | −1.5% | IMF ex-post assessment of the 2023 outcome. |
| Recorded agricultural GDP change | −17% | IMF ex-post assessment of agricultural output in 2023. |
Sources: IMF, Fifth and Sixth Reviews, August 25, 2023; IMF, Ex-post Evaluation, published December 19, 2024.
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How did the drought affect Argentina’s economy?
It devastated harvests in an important sector
The IMF’s later evaluation says the 2022–23 drought had a significant impact on Argentina’s economy. Agriculture accounts for nearly 10% of GDP, and the sector’s output contracted 17% in 2023. Soybeans were especially badly hit: the harvest was the worst in more than a decade. Corn and wheat output also fell, though less severely.
Lower harvests meant less foreign currency
Argentina’s grain sales abroad are an important source of foreign exchange. The IMF’s later assessment put the loss of foreign-exchange inflows from agricultural exports at about US$20 billion. With fewer export dollars coming in, the current account moved into deficit and foreign-exchange reserves came under pressure. The IMF’s 2023 review described the drought as a major shock to exports and economic activity.
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Public revenue weakened too
Reduced agricultural exports also meant less revenue from export duties. The Central Bank of Argentina estimated that drought-related lower export-duty receipts in the first three quarters of 2023 were equivalent to about 0.6% of GDP. That is a fiscal revenue effect, not another estimate of lost GDP or exports.
Why do quarterly and annual GDP figures differ?
A separate Central Bank of Argentina report said GDP fell 2.8% quarter on quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis in 2023’s second quarter, and 4.9% year on year. These are two comparisons for one quarter, not competing estimates of the full-year result: the first compares Q2 with the preceding quarter after seasonal adjustment; the second compares Q2 with the same quarter a year earlier. Neither is interchangeable with the IMF’s 2023 annual forecast or the later annual outcome.
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Source: Banco Central de la República Argentina, Monetary Policy Report, October 2023.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Was drought the only reason the economy and IMF program missed targets?
No. The IMF linked missed program targets to the drought as well as policy slippages and delays. Its later evaluation describes adjustments to reserve targets and efforts to partly offset the loss of export dollars through a contraction in imports. The drought explains a major external shock, but it should not be used as the sole explanation for Argentina’s overall GDP performance or every program shortfall.
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Sources: IMF Executive Board release, August 23, 2023; IMF, Ex-post Evaluation, published December 19, 2024.
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