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U.S. soybean sales to China fell sharply during the 2025 tariff dispute, and U.S. arrivals in China were zero from September through December 2025, according to USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). A November agreement announced large Chinese purchase commitments, but those promises were not the same as completed sales or shipments. USDA’s later figures show purchases resumed, while tariffs and cheaper South American supplies continued to constrain commercial demand. Federal bridge aid was intended to cover only part of modeled losses.
How the tariff dispute hit soybean trade
China is a major destination for U.S. soybeans, so a sudden interruption in that trade can leave farmers facing uncertainty over where their crop will sell and at what price. USDA FAS’s 2026 Oilseeds and Products Annual: China reports that Chinese imports from the United States declined after tariffs were imposed in April 2025. U.S. soybean arrivals in China reached zero from September through December 2025.
For marketing year (MY) 2024/25, China imported 22.9 million metric tons (MMT) of U.S. soybeans, an 8 percent year-on-year decrease, USDA FAS reported. That figure measures U.S. soybean imports arriving in China during that marketing year; it is not a measure of total U.S. soybean exports or U.S. farm production.
What the November 2025 agreement promised
The White House’s November 1, 2025 fact sheet said China would suspend all retaliatory tariffs it had announced since March 4, 2025, including tariffs on soybeans. It also described Chinese commitments to buy at least 12 MMT of U.S. soybeans during November and December 2025, and at least 25 MMT in each of 2026, 2027 and 2028. These are commitments as stated by the White House, not confirmation that the volumes had been purchased, shipped or received.
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The announcement drew positive reactions from farm groups. Caleb Ragland, then-president of the American Soybean Association and a soybean farmer, said: “Today’s announcement is great news for American agriculture, and soybean farmers are extremely grateful to President Trump for making soybeans a priority in negotiations with China.” The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative published his statement in November 2025. It reflects a stakeholder’s response to the announcement, not evidence that the trade targets were met.
How announced targets compare with USDA purchase reporting
USDA sales reporting provides a later, more specific view than the announcement. A purchase, an export sale, a shipment and a customs arrival are different points in the trade process; none by itself establishes the price a farmer received.
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| Measure | Figure and date | What it establishes |
|---|---|---|
| Initial Chinese commitment | At least 12 MMT for November–December 2025; White House fact sheet, November 1, 2025 | An announced commitment, not a completed trade volume. |
| USDA accounting toward initial commitment | 10.8 MMT purchased or shipped as of February 26, 2026; USDA FAS | USDA export-sales data indicated China had purchased or shipped this amount toward the 12 MMT commitment. |
| Sales to unknown destinations | 2.19 MMT as of February 26, 2026; USDA FAS | USDA said these sales were not confirmed as China-bound. |
| New-crop purchases for MY 2026/27 delivery | 5.7 MMT by August 13, 2026; USDA FAS September 2026 update | U.S. soybean purchases reported for delivery in MY 2026/27. |
| Additional sales to unknown destinations | 3.8 MMT by August 13, 2026; USDA FAS September 2026 update | Such sales can indicate Chinese state-owned enterprise buying, but the destination was not confirmed as China. |
The annual report said the purchases recorded toward the initial commitment at that point were made by state-owned enterprises. That distinction matters: buying tied to a government commitment does not show that private commercial buyers have returned to U.S. soybeans on the same scale.
Why resumed purchases did not mean a full market recovery
In its September 2026 update, USDA FAS reported that China’s current retaliatory tariff on U.S. soybeans was 10 percent and said the tariff had led commercial buyers to rely on South American origins. The earlier annual report also said South American soybeans remained cheaper than U.S. soybeans as Brazil began marketing a record crop.
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Shipping windows and competing origins shape buyers’ decisions alongside policy announcements. USDA FAS reported that Brazil sent record volumes of soybeans to China from June through August 2026. The purchase figures therefore show that U.S. sales resumed, but they do not establish restored U.S. market share or a return to pre-disruption commercial conditions.
China’s Ministry of Commerce offered a similarly qualified description of its agricultural trade objective at a July 2, 2026 press conference. It called the objective a guiding target and said businesses would trade independently based on market principles, actual demand and market conditions. The ministry said the sides had agreed in principle to include relevant agricultural products in a reciprocal tariff-reduction framework arrangement, but it did not announce when purchases would increase or specify a reduction in the remaining tariff.
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- Productive - Chiba Green Soybean germinates in 10-14 days when soil temps are 65-75°F. Plant 1” deep and space 4-6” apart in an area with full sun. This variety will grow 1-3’ tall with a spread of 12-16”. Beans will mature in 65-75 days, plant in USDA zones 3-10.
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- Safe and Sustainable - Our operation is fully solar powered, and Sow Right Seeds has taken the Safe Seed Pledge to sell only fresh Non-GMO heirloom seeds for you and your family.
What federal bridge aid covered—and what it did not
In December 2025, USDA’s Farm Service Agency announced $12 billion in Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) for farmers affected by market disruptions. The program description said FBA would use a proportional, uniform formula to cover a portion of modeled losses for the 2025 crop year. The announcement reserved $1 billion for commodities outside FBA, with details still under development at that time. The stated purpose and formula do not mean every farmer’s losses were reimbursed in full.
In April 2026, the Associated Press reported that the initial soybean purchase goal had been met and aid had been rolled out. AP also reported an American Soybean Association estimate that farmers still lost nearly $75 per harvested soybean acre on the 2025 crop after federal assistance. That is an association estimate reported by AP, not a government audit or a calculation of every farm’s individual result.
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For a farm household, the distinction is practical: a national aid program and announced export targets do not reveal a particular operation’s final revenue, costs or payment. The sources above establish the program’s modeled, partial-loss purpose and a sector association’s estimate of residual losses, but not the financial outcome for an individual farm.
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