On Friday, July 12, 2024, December corn closed 4 cents higher while November soybeans and all three September wheat contracts fell. Cassidy Walter’s report for Successful Farming attributed corn’s rebound to USDA data showing lower-than-expected ending stocks for old- and new-crop corn. Soybeans faced different supply-and-demand pressures, while a surprise increase in U.S. wheat production and ending stocks weighed on wheat. These are explanations reported at the time, not proof that any one factor alone caused the moves.
How the grain contracts closed
The following daily changes were reported by Successful Farming in its July 12, 2024 market wrap. The report did not identify an underlying exchange data release for the figures.
| Market | Contract | Reported close |
|---|---|---|
| Corn | December | Up 4 cents |
| Soybeans | November | Down 2½ cents |
| CBOT wheat | September | Down 20½ cents |
| Kansas City wheat | September | Down 16 cents |
| Minneapolis wheat | September | Down 21¼ cents |
The figures describe those specific contract months and the July 12 session; they are not a current price update or a longer-term performance measure.
Why corn rose after the July WASDE report
USDA released its July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report that day. According to commentary from the Grain Market Insider newsletter by Stewart-Peterson Inc., corn started the session lower as traders anticipated a bearish report, then rallied after the release showed lower-than-expected ending stocks for both old- and new-crop corn. The commentary said weakness in soybeans and wheat restrained corn’s gains.
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Ending stocks are the supply projected to remain at the end of a marketing year. A lower-than-expected projection can be supportive for prices because it points to less remaining supply than market participants had anticipated. In this case, the newsletter’s explanation connects the surprise against expectations—not simply the fact that USDA issued a report—to corn’s reversal.
Why soybeans slipped
The same newsletter described the slight downward revisions to soybean ending stocks as more neutral than bullish. It also cited good growing conditions, slow export demand, and weakness in soybean meal and oil as pressures on the market. That combination helps explain why the report’s stock revisions did not produce a corn-like rally in soybeans, according to the commentary.
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Why wheat fell more sharply
The market wrap cited a surprise increase in U.S. wheat production and ending stocks as a driver of wheat’s decline. It also mentioned rumors that the Black Sea Grain Initiative might be revived and lower MATIF wheat prices as possible additional negative influences. Those latter items were presented as possible pressures, not established causes.
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Before USDA’s release, Arlan Suderman, StoneX chief commodities economist, said traders were braced for a bearish report reinforcing expectations for ample supplies of corn, soybeans, and wheat. He identified the global balance sheet as a major focus, including potential USDA changes involving Black Sea wheat and corn production and Argentine and Brazilian corn production.
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Bob Linneman, a commodities broker with Kluis Commodity Advisors, also noted that Brazil’s Conab agricultural agency had released updated supply-and-demand data the previous day. Linneman said the update raised corn supply because second-crop corn yields had been better than expected, while soybean production was unchanged. This was background context ahead of the USDA report, rather than a substitute for its U.S. estimates.
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What this one-day recap can—and cannot—tell you
- It records a mixed close across specific corn, soybean, and wheat contracts on July 12, 2024.
- Its explanations reflect commentary quoted by Successful Farming; they should be read as attributed interpretations of the session, not independently proven single-factor causation.
- It does not establish a longer-term price outlook, a trading recommendation, or what grain markets are doing now.
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