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A free scan shows the junk files, broken settings and background clutter dragging Windows down - then fixes them in one click.Free scan · Windows 10 & 11No. The contemporary figure reported for Oil World’s 2022–2023 forecast was an increase of 2.9 million metric tons, not 29 million. The 29-million-tonne headline appears to be a tenfold error. S&P Global Commodity Insights reported the forecast on 5 January 2023; it was a forecast, not a current production reading.
What did the forecast actually say?
S&P Global Commodity Insights reported on 5 January 2023: “Leading benchmark Oil World is expecting palm oil production to rise 2.9 million mt/year in 2022-2023.” The 2.9 million metric ton increase is the supported figure in the contemporary reporting—not 29 million.
This is a secondary report of an Oil World forecast. The original Oil World forecast document was not located, so the figure should be attributed to Oil World as reported by S&P Global, rather than presented as independently verified from Oil World’s own publication. Read S&P Global Commodity Insights’ 5 January 2023 report.
Does the forecast establish what production later was?
No. A forecast and a later statistical estimate are different kinds of figures, published at different times. USDA Foreign Agricultural Service’s December 2023 World Agricultural Production circular gives a global palm oil production estimate of 79.46 million metric tons. That is a separate, later estimate vintage; it does not validate or replace Oil World’s earlier forecast, and it should not be attributed to Mielke or Oil World. See USDA Foreign Agricultural Service’s December 2023 circular.
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Why can annual figures be difficult to compare?
Different publishers may use different period definitions, methods, and estimate vintages. USDA explains that its annual and quarterly supply-use statistics use marketing years. Vegetable-oil marketing years begin on 1 October; foreign statistics aggregate producing-country marketing years, while USDA adjusts trade data to an October–September year in its Production, Supply, and Distribution database. The available sources do not establish that Oil World used identical definitions or methods for its forecast.
For context on the USDA series, its Oil Crops Yearbook compiles supply, use, stocks, and price statistics from public reports by several USDA agencies. When comparing a forecast with a later estimate, identify the publisher, publication date, period definition, and whether the number is a forecast or estimate. USDA ERS Oil Crops Yearbook and its documentation describe the series and conventions.
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What about the Mielke attribution?
The S&P Global report names Thomas Mielke elsewhere, but the sentence giving the 2.9-million-metric-ton forecast does not identify him as its speaker. A secondary search-result reproduction of a Bloomberg report dated 13 October 2022 attributes figures of 80.2 million tons for the current year beginning in October and 77.2 million tons for 2021–22 to David Mielke. That reproduction is not the original Bloomberg article, and it does not establish the wording or source of the 29-million-tonne headline. The name discrepancy should therefore remain unresolved rather than treated as proof that a named Mielke made the forecast at issue.
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- High Smoke Point: Suitable for frying plantains, yams, and other ingredients without compromising flavor
- Free from Additives: Contains no artificial preservatives or chemicals, making it a wholesome choice for your kitchen
- Versatile Cooking Oil: Suitable for frying, sauteing, baking, and as a butter substitute in vegan recipes
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