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What the 2024 forecast said
In January 2024, Seymour wrote, “I am expecting used row crop tractors to decrease in value by 15%-25%.” The estimate concerned used row-crop tractors broadly; the listing data he used to illustrate supply covered tractors rated at 175 horsepower and greater. It was an analyst’s forecast, not a measured price index or a prediction that every tractor would lose the same amount. Successful Farming, January 2024
Why Seymour expected prices to soften
Seymour attributed the expected correction to supply catching up with demand and the fading scarcity premium that had built up during shortages from 2020 through 2023. In his account, higher farm income and fleet-upgrade demand supported equipment values, while orders accumulated during delivery delays. As availability recovered, he expected buyers to have more choice and sellers to face greater pressure to compete. These are Seymour’s explanations, not an independently established causal measurement.
Listings rebounded from the shortage-era low
Seymour cited TractorHouse online listing counts for tractors rated 175 hp and greater. Counts rose from 6,509 in January 2023 to 11,607 on January 1, 2024—an approximate 78% increase calculated from those two counts. The series is a count of online listings, not completed sales, a census of all available tractors, or a measure of prices.
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| Date | TractorHouse listings, 175 hp and greater |
|---|---|
| January 2017 | 17,386 |
| January 2018 | 17,423 |
| January 2019 | 16,951 |
| January 2020 | 16,248 |
| January 2021 | 13,230 |
| January 2022 | 8,786 |
| January 2023 | 6,509 |
| January 1, 2024 | 11,607 |
All counts are TractorHouse figures reported by Seymour in Successful Farming. The series shows listings recovering from their 2023 low; by itself, it cannot show how much a used tractor sold for or how much values changed.
New-equipment costs and financing added pressure
The same article reported average new-tractor prices of $328,600 in 2017, $363,700 in 2020, and $491,800 in 2023. Seymour described the 2017–2023 increase as $163,200, or 50%, and cited manufacturer price increases of 40% between 2020 and 2023. These historical figures help explain the high-price backdrop he described; they are not current prices or a used-tractor valuation series.
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Seymour also compared a 4.5% peak prime rate in 2017 with 8.5% at the time of his January 2024 article. That is an article-era comparison, not a statement of today’s interest rate. Higher borrowing costs can affect what buyers are willing or able to finance, but the article does not quantify how much financing contributed to used-tractor prices.
What Seymour said by year-end
In a December 2024 retrospective, Seymour described an influx of used John Deere and Case IH row-crop tractors, more competition among sellers, lower retail prices, and greater expected auction activity. He characterized the overall market as having returned to pre-COVID levels and expected oversupply to continue into 2025 and 2026. Successful Farming, December 2024
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That retrospective supports the direction of the January forecast: Seymour still saw growing availability and downward price pressure. It does not provide a comparable transaction-price series or an audited percentage decline for 2024, so it cannot establish that values actually fell 15%–25%.
What this means when evaluating a used tractor
A market-wide forecast is not a substitute for pricing a particular machine. The source material does not rank models or report condition-adjusted sale prices. When comparing options, consider the specific tractor and the market around it:
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- Compare like with like: use horsepower, model year, and hours to identify relevant alternatives rather than treating all row-crop tractors as interchangeable.
- Check local and brand-specific supply: Seymour described increased availability of John Deere and Case IH machines, but inventory and demand can differ by brand and location.
- Separate asking prices from sale evidence: dealer listings show asking prices; auction activity offers a different context. Neither should be mistaken for a universal market value.
- Account for the machine’s condition: the forecast does not provide condition assessments or model-by-model valuations, so inspect the individual tractor and compare its history and condition before deciding what it is worth.
Why the forecast had a caveat
Seymour noted that a significant crop-production problem could alter market conditions. The forecast depended on supply, demand, and farm economics continuing along the path he anticipated; it was not an unconditional guarantee of a particular decline.
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Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.
