Fidelity marked down its X holding by 78.7% by the end of August 2024. TechCrunch extrapolated that investor mark to an estimated whole-company value of about $9.4 billion, versus the $44 billion reported purchase valuation in 2022. That was a dated estimate based on Fidelity’s private-company stake—not a public share price or a definitive measure of X’s value. Later reports put the comparison in a different light: a March 2025 secondary-share transaction was reported at $44 billion, and Musk later stated values of $33 billion net of debt and $45 billion including debt for X in its xAI deal.
What the 78.7% markdown measured
The headline figure concerned Fidelity Blue Chip Growth Fund’s investment in X, the company formerly known as Twitter. Fidelity initially valued its holding at $19.66 million. By the end of August 2024, the fund reported that holding at about $4.19 million, a 78.7% markdown from its initial valuation, according to TechCrunch.
That markdown was not a record of a publicly traded stock falling 78.7%. X is privately held, so there was no continuously quoted public share price in these reports. Fidelity was valuing its own stake for its fund; the fund’s mark is evidence of how one investor valued that holding, not an audited appraisal of the entire company.
How the roughly $9.4 billion estimate was derived
TechCrunch estimated X’s overall value at about $9.4 billion by extrapolating Fidelity’s stake value. The calculation assumes Fidelity’s original $19.66 million holding corresponded to the $44 billion valuation associated with Musk’s October 2022 acquisition. On that assumption, reducing the stake to about $4.19 million implies a company-wide figure of roughly $9.4 billion.
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This is a useful way to understand the scale of Fidelity’s markdown, but it is an extrapolation—not a transaction price at which all X shares could necessarily have been sold. It also depends on the assumption that Fidelity’s initial stake value tracks the acquisition valuation proportionally.
How the reported valuations changed over time
| Date and report | Figure | What it represents |
|---|---|---|
| October 2022 acquisition | $44 billion | Reported purchase valuation for Twitter when Musk acquired it. TechCrunch |
| Data through November 30, 2023, reported by CBS News in 2024 | 71.5% markdown | Fidelity’s estimate of its stake, down relative to its pre-acquisition stake valuation; not a public-market share-price decline. CBS News |
| End of August 2024, reported by TechCrunch in 2024 | 78.7% markdown; about $4.19 million for Fidelity’s holding; about $9.4 billion extrapolated for X | The first two values describe Fidelity’s holding and mark. The whole-company estimate assumes the initial stake corresponded to the $44 billion acquisition valuation. TechCrunch |
| March 2025 private secondary share exchange, reported by Cinco Días | $44 billion | A valuation implied by a reported private share exchange; the report also noted uncertainty about whether the transaction represented a reliable market price. Cinco Días |
| March 28, 2025 xAI transaction announcement, reported by TechCrunch | $33 billion net of $12 billion in debt; $45 billion including debt | Values Musk stated for X in the all-stock xAI deal. The $45 billion figure includes debt; $33 billion is net of it. This was a related-party transaction announcement, not a public-market quote. TechCrunch |
These figures are not a like-for-like price history. They come from different dates and methods: a fund’s private-company mark, an extrapolation from that mark, a reported secondary transaction, and values stated by the owner in a related-party deal. A later reported valuation does not prove what all shares could have fetched in an open market.
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What business conditions were reported around the first anniversary
The operating figures offer context for why investors and advertisers were watching X closely, but they do not calculate how much company value was lost or establish a single cause for Fidelity’s markdown.
- Advertising estimates: In an Associated Press report around the first anniversary of the takeover, Insider Intelligence estimated X would earn $1.89 billion in advertising revenue in 2023, down 54% from its $4.12 billion estimate for 2022. These were research-firm estimates reported by AP, not audited company results. Associated Press
- Cash-flow statement: In July 2023, Musk said X remained cash-flow negative, citing an approximately 50% drop in advertising revenue and a heavy debt load, as reported by AP. That is Musk’s statement; the cited report does not establish an audited cash-flow figure. Associated Press
- Usage and advertiser-portal activity: AP cited Similarweb comparisons reporting global Twitter.com traffic down 14% year over year, advertiser-portal traffic down 16.5%, and combined iOS and Android monthly active users down 17.8%. These were period-specific measures reported around the takeover’s first anniversary, not current usage statistics. Associated Press
Those indicators may help explain concern about the business, but the figures cover different measures and periods. They should not be treated as a forensic accounting of the company’s value or as proof that one factor alone caused a particular valuation.
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- Superior Quality: Constructed by our manufacturing partners from high-performing ceramic, UV protected and FDA compliant, rest assured that your mug is dishwasher (top shelf) and microwave safe.
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Is X worth less than the $44 billion Musk paid?
The answer depends on which date and valuation method you mean. Fidelity’s August 2024 mark, extrapolated by TechCrunch, suggested a much lower figure than the 2022 purchase valuation. But a private secondary transaction reported in March 2025 implied $44 billion, and Musk stated $33 billion net of debt and $45 billion including debt in the xAI transaction later that month.
Those later reports weaken any claim that the $9.4 billion estimate is X’s current value. They do not create a single definitive market price either: the secondary transaction’s reliability was questioned in its report, while the xAI deal was an all-stock, related-party transaction with distinct debt-inclusive and debt-net figures.
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What can be said about X’s value now?
As of the latest ownership development covered here, the standalone value of X after the parent-company transaction is not established by the cited reports. The official xAI news page states that SpaceX acquired xAI on February 2, 2026, but that announcement does not provide a standalone valuation for X.
So the most defensible reading of the headline is historical and specific: by August 2024, Fidelity had marked down its own X holding by 78.7%, and TechCrunch’s conditional extrapolation put the company at about $9.4 billion. That does not establish that Musk personally or definitively wiped out a measured amount of X’s value, nor does it tell readers what the standalone business is worth today.
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