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A 2026 Nature Energy study projects that battery-electric passenger vehicles charged by standalone solar systems could cost less over their lifetimes than fossil-fuel cars well before 2040 in most of the African countries and vehicle segments it modeled. That is a conditional model result—not proof that every EV is already cheaper or that the outcome will hold in every market. The comparison includes the solar charging system, and financing costs are a major obstacle.
What the study says—and what “cheaper to own” means
The study compares three modeled pathways: battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) paired with standalone solar off-grid charging (SOG), fossil-fuel internal-combustion vehicles, and internal-combustion vehicles using synthetic fuel. It covers six passenger-vehicle segments in 52 African countries through 2040. Djibouti, Seychelles, and Western Sahara are not included in its country maps. The authors find that BEV-SOG has lower total cost of ownership (TCO) in most modeled countries and segments before 2040, with some cases reaching that point as early as 2030. The result does not apply to every country or segment. (Nature Energy, 2026)
TCO here is a lifetime cost per kilometre, not a comparison of vehicle sticker prices. The model accounts for vehicle and, where relevant, charging-system capital cost; residual value; financing; and operating costs over the vehicle’s life and annual distance travelled. Operating costs include fuel or charging, vehicle operation and maintenance, insurance, and—on the BEV-SOG path—solar-system operation and maintenance.
The researchers exclude taxes, fees, and import duties from vehicle capital cost and say the comparisons neglect policy-induced cost distortions. The fossil-fuel benchmark also uses an average gasoline price without fuel taxes. As a result, the modeled resource-cost comparison may differ from what a buyer pays on the road, at the pump, or through a local loan.
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Why financing can decide the comparison
Upfront and borrowing costs can outweigh savings from driving. In some modeled vehicle segments, financing costs exceed 150% of vehicle capital expenditure. The paper also identifies vehicle capital cost, annual distance travelled, operation and maintenance, energy consumption, lifetime distance, and energy prices as influences on the TCO gap.
Country-specific loan conditions matter. For the small four-wheeler segment, the authors estimate that achieving modeled 2030 break-even in some higher-risk countries, including Ghana, would require financing-cost reductions of 7–15 percentage points compared with the assumptions in their model. This is a modeled financing gap, not a guaranteed loan-rate change or offer to consumers.
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That makes access to affordable finance as important as vehicle and energy prices. The authors identify financing and de-risking as key actions for governments and development finance institutions; lower charging costs alone do not ensure a lower total cost of ownership.
What solar off-grid charging adds to the cost
The modeled charging setup is more than a solar panel: photovoltaic panels and a stationary battery feed an inverter. The system is sized to meet vehicle energy needs against a minimum reliability target, with an oversizing allowance. The study treats it as an installed system rather than assuming charging equipment is free.
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For a small four-wheeler assumed to travel about 50 km per day, the study estimates an installed SOG system cost of about US$2,700. Its broader modeled 2025 cost range for the four-wheeler segment is US$2,500–3,500. These are study estimates, not current retail quotes. In the modeled 2030 small-four-wheeler case, charging accounts for less than 4% of TCO.
Off-grid solar is presented as one way to address electricity infrastructure constraints; it does not guarantee that a buyer can find suitable equipment, skilled installers, reliable finance, or convenient charging access. A system’s components and installation need to be designed for the vehicle’s energy needs. A generic solar product is not evidence that it can safely or reliably charge an EV.
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How to judge the result for a real buyer
The study indicates where BEV-SOG could become cost-effective under its assumptions. It does not calculate the cost for a specific buyer, vehicle, loan, or address. To make a practical comparison in a particular country, assess the full set of costs and usage conditions:
- Purchase price: Compare on-road prices after applicable taxes, duties, and fees, rather than relying on a pre-tax vehicle cost.
- Financing: Include the actual loan or lease terms, fees, down payment, and availability—not just the vehicle’s advertised price.
- Energy and charging: Estimate local fuel or electricity costs and whether charging is accessible. If buying off-grid solar, include the sized system, storage, inverter, installation, and upkeep.
- Use and lifespan: Estimate annual distance, expected vehicle life, and energy consumption. These change how much a buyer spends per kilometre.
- Ownership costs: Account for maintenance, insurance, and expected resale value for the options being compared.
The International Energy Agency’s Electric Vehicles: Total Cost of Ownership Tool offers an interactive way to explore cost variables. The IEA page says it was last updated on 13 December 2022, so its inputs may not reflect later prices or conditions.
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1Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors2Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute3Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsWhat the projection does not establish
The paper is a forward-looking model, not evidence that EVs already cost less for African buyers today. Its finding is limited to the countries and passenger-vehicle segments modeled and depends on assumptions about costs, use, financing, and the solar charging configuration. An individual result can differ when local taxes, import costs, fuel prices, equipment prices, loan terms, or driving patterns differ from those assumptions.
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