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A Los Angeles Times report says Polymarket listed prediction markets tied to the January 2025 Eaton and Palisades fires, including questions about how fast the blazes would grow, when they would be contained and how much they would destroy. The Times attributed to a letter from nine senators to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) the claim that more than $1.2 million in predictions were placed on the fires. That amount is a claim reported from the letter, not an independently audited platform total.
What did the reported fire markets ask?
The Los Angeles Times reported on markets concerning the Eaton and Palisades fires, which began in January 2025. The questions focused on measurable outcomes: how quickly the fires would grow, when they would be contained and how much damage they would cause. The report does not establish that comparable wildfire markets are currently available across prediction platforms.
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The scale of the disaster is described differently across the cited sources. Verisk’s 2025 report, citing CAL FIRE, says the fires burned 37,728 acres, caused 30 confirmed civilian fatalities and damaged or destroyed more than 18,000 structures. The Times reports that 31 people were killed. Verisk estimates combined insured property losses of $28 billion to $35 billion; this is an estimate of insured losses, not a total measure of all economic or human harm.
How do event contracts work?
Event contracts are yes-or-no positions tied to an outcome. As traders buy and sell, the price of a position can shift. A trader whose prediction is wrong loses the investment in that position. The CFTC, as quoted by the Times, says these contracts can let users “hedge economic risk or speculate on price movements and event outcomes.”
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That general description does not establish the specific settlement rules for any reported fire market. The available account does not identify the precise source each contract used to resolve its outcome, so readers should not assume that all event contracts use the same evidence or rules.
Why are lawmakers objecting?
Critics argue that markets allowing people to profit from disasters commodify suffering and may create harmful incentives. Jamie Pietruska, an associate professor of history at Rutgers University, told the Times: “There’s a reason these are called arson markets.” That is a criticism of the market concept, not evidence that a bet caused arson or another crime. The Times said no case had been reported in which event-contract bets motivated arson.
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In the letter as quoted by the Times, the senators called on the CFTC to act: “The CFTC must lead the charge to rein in these contracts in the U.S. and offshore and put in place common-sense guardrails to prevent people from profiting as wildfires threaten communities.” The Times reported that the CFTC was considering rules for prediction markets, including possible restrictions on contracts deemed contrary to the public interest. The agency did not respond to the Times’ question about whether it would act on the letter.
What did Polymarket say?
A Polymarket spokesperson told the Times the coverage presented “a misleading narrative based on markets we haven’t offered for nearly 2 years.” That is the company’s response to the reported markets and their framing; the Times’ account does not independently establish current wildfire-market availability across platforms.
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- End-of-life warning lets you know when it’s time to replace the alarm
- Test/silence button for efficient testing to ensure alarm is working properly
What the reported $1.2 million figure does—and does not—show
The more-than-$1.2-million figure was attributed by the Times to a letter sent by nine senators to the CFTC. It should be read as a claim made in that letter and reported by the newspaper, not as a verified, independently audited total of platform activity. It also does not show that any particular trader profited, or establish that trading caused harm or wrongdoing.
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