U.S. consumer sentiment reached a five-month high in the University of Michigan’s preliminary July 2025 survey, even as inflation remained elevated. The index rose to 61.8 from 60.7 in June, while the report cited June’s year-over-year CPI inflation rate at 2.7%. These are mid-2025 figures, not a description of current conditions.
What the July 2025 figures showed
| Measure | July 2025 reading | Comparison | What it measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment | 61.8, preliminary | 60.7 in June; 64.7 in February. July was the highest reading since February. | Respondents’ assessments of economic conditions and outlook. The result was reported by Forbes on July 18, 2025. |
| Year-ahead inflation expectations | 4.4% | Down from 5.0% in June. | Respondents’ expectations for inflation over the coming year, as reported by Forbes. |
| Long-run inflation expectations | 3.6% | Down from 4.0% in June. | Respondents’ longer-term expectations, as reported by Forbes. |
| CPI inflation | 2.7% year over year in June; core CPI rose 3.0% annually. | Reported alongside the July survey in the Forbes account. | Observed change in consumer prices, not a survey of expectations. See the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI release archive for the agency’s CPI materials; the June 2025 primary release was not independently confirmed here. |
The July sentiment number was a relative high within the preceding five months, not a historically high level or evidence that consumers were uniformly optimistic. The University of Michigan publishes monthly results and identifies releases as preliminary or final; the July 2025 field dates and sample size are not established here. Its Surveys of Consumers site provides information about the series and releases.
How confidence can rise while inflation is still increasing
These measures describe different things. Consumer sentiment reflects respondents’ views of the economy and their outlook. Inflation expectations describe what they believe prices will do in the future. CPI records how prices paid by consumers changed over a defined period.
They can therefore move in different directions. In the July survey, sentiment improved from June and respondents’ inflation expectations fell, even though the contemporaneous CPI figure cited in the report showed prices 2.7% higher than a year earlier. A lower expectation is not the same as falling prices: it means respondents anticipated a slower future pace of price increases, not necessarily a return to earlier price levels.
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CPI is a statistical measure rather than a direct account of every household’s experience. The BLS explains its coverage and methods in its CPI Handbook of Methods. Changes in the overall index also do not mean every category or household faces the same price movement.
Does higher consumer confidence mean people are spending more?
Not by itself. The sentiment index captures survey responses; it does not directly measure completed purchases, total household spending, or economic growth. An improved reading may indicate a more favorable outlook among respondents, but it cannot establish that spending rose or that confidence caused any later change. Those questions require separate spending and economic data.
How to interpret this reading against other confidence indexes
Identify the provider, geography, survey period, definition, and whether the result is preliminary or final before making comparisons. The University of Michigan measure is a U.S. consumer survey. Other programs use different methods and purposes, so their raw index points are not interchangeable or direct corroboration.
For example, the European Commission describes its harmonized consumer and business surveys as supporting comparisons across EU and applicant countries. That is a different geographic and survey framework from the University of Michigan’s U.S. series; see the Commission’s business and consumer surveys overview.
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Why the July 2025 date matters
The 61.8 sentiment reading and the associated inflation expectations describe a preliminary mid-2025 survey, while the CPI comparison refers to June 2025. They should not be presented as current readings. Later data illustrate how quickly inflation measures can change: the BLS reported that CPI-U rose 3.4% over the 12 months through August 2026, with energy up 16.3%, gasoline 27.4%, food 2.7%, and core CPI 2.4% over that period. Those figures are a separate 2026 snapshot, not a continuation of the July 2025 survey comparison; see the BLS August 2026 CPI release.
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