No evidence in the latest reviewed USDA reporting shows China replacing U.S. soybeans with Russian supplies. China’s leading suppliers remain Brazil, the United States and Argentina. The 70-million-metric-ton Russia-China deal covers grains and oilseeds collectively over 12 years—not soybeans alone—and USDA does not report a Russia-specific soybean volume. The better-supported story is that U.S. shipments were disrupted in 2025, then resumed, while South American beans retained a major competitive advantage.
Russia is not shown as a replacement supplier for U.S. soybeans
USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) identifies Brazil, the United States and Argentina as China’s three major soybean suppliers in its March 19, 2026 annual report. The report says significant supply and logistics hurdles constrain efforts to shift away from those origins. Its origin chart groups suppliers as Brazil, the United States, Argentina and “Other”; it does not break out Russia’s soybean contribution. USDA FAS, China Oilseeds and Products Annual, March 19, 2026.
The Russia-China agreement often cited in this context is broader than soybeans. USDA FAS describes an agreement for 70 million metric tons of grains and oilseeds, valued at approximately $27 billion over 12 years. That aggregate figure is not a soybean commitment, and the report gives no Russia-only soybean shipment figure. It should not be treated as evidence that Russian soybeans have displaced U.S. beans.
What happened to U.S. soybean sales—and when they resumed
Trade tensions sharply interrupted U.S. sales to China in 2025, but the interruption was not the final state of trade. USDA FAS reports that China imported 22.9 million metric tons (MMT) of U.S. soybeans in marketing year 2024/25, an 8 percent year-over-year decline. U.S. soybean arrivals in China were zero from September through December 2025. Purchases resumed after the October 2025 meeting between the countries, according to the agency’s March 2026 report.
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By February 26, 2026, China had purchased or shipped 10.8 MMT toward a 12 MMT U.S. soybean commitment, USDA FAS reported. Those figures describe progress as of that date, not a final annual import total. An additional 2.19 MMT sold to destinations listed as “Unknown” was not confirmed as China-bound and should not be added to China’s total.
The disruption was consequential for U.S. producers. During the 2025 period when China had not bought U.S. beans since May, the Associated Press reported concerns among farmers. American Soybean Association president Caleb Ragland called it “a five-alarm fire for our industry” in comments reported on September 27, 2025. Those remarks describe the uncertainty at that time, not the later resumption of purchases. Associated Press, September 27, 2025.
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Why Brazil has been the stronger alternative
China’s sourcing shift has primarily strengthened the role of South American suppliers, rather than establishing Russia as a substitute. World Bank data reported by the Associated Press put Brazil’s share of China’s soybean imports above 70 percent in 2024, compared with 21 percent for the United States. These are 2024 shares, not a current-year breakdown, and they do not identify Russia’s share within other origins.
Price and timing help explain the competition. USDA FAS said Brazil’s new-crop prices were significantly below U.S.-origin prices in early 2026. Its 2025 report also described Brazil’s persistent price advantage and noted that tariffs affected U.S. competitiveness and narrowed the U.S. shipping window. Soybean sourcing is shaped not just by political announcements but by which origin can offer attractive delivered prices and supply during the relevant buying period. USDA FAS, China Oilseeds and Products Annual, March 19, 2025.
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How to read commitments, sales and imports
Trade figures can refer to different stages of a transaction. A purchase commitment is not necessarily an arrival, and export-sales records may include sales to destinations not yet identified. The 10.8 MMT figure is a dated measure of what China had purchased or shipped toward a stated commitment by February 26, 2026; it is not interchangeable with the 22.9 MMT already imported during MY 2024/25. Likewise, the 2.19 MMT “Unknown” sales cannot be attributed to China without confirmation.
USDA FAS forecasts China’s soybean imports at 106 MMT for marketing year 2025/26 and 108 MMT for 2026/27. These are forecasts, not final trade outcomes. The agency notes that its forecasts and revised estimates are issued by FAS China and are not official USDA data. USDA FAS, China Oilseeds and Products Annual, March 19, 2026.
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What the evidence can—and cannot—say about Russia
The available USDA origin categories do not show a Russia-only soybean volume, so a precise claim about Russia’s share or its ability to replace U.S. supply is not established by these reports. Nor should a deal covering grains and oilseeds collectively be presented as a soybean-specific agreement. What is established is that Brazil, the United States and Argentina remain China’s principal suppliers; U.S. purchases fell during the 2025 trade conflict and later resumed; and Brazil’s price advantage contributed to competition for China’s business.
For updated U.S. agricultural trade data, USDA Economic Research Service directs readers to FATUS and USDA FAS’s weekly Export Sales Reporting and Query System. USDA ERS, U.S. Agricultural Trade — Data, updated April 7, 2026.
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