Drivers are already paying roughly $4.10 per gallon nationally, and another increase is possible. But the most credible baseline does not call for an endless climb: the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects the national average to ease to about $3.80 per gallon in the third quarter of 2026 and approximately $3.40 in the fourth quarter.
That outlook depends on oil production and shipping routes recovering from disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. If tanker traffic remains restricted or inventories become critically low, gasoline could instead stay near $4 or approach $5 per gallon. For household budgets, the timing matters as much as the peak price.
Where gasoline prices stand now
The latest available figures put regular gasoline at just over $4 per gallon nationwide. AAA reported a national average of $4.09 per gallon on July 30, 2026, unchanged from the previous week and nearly $1 higher than a year earlier. EIA’s weekly figure for the week ending July 27 was similar at $4.096 per gallon.
EIA’s number was 9.5 cents higher than the previous week, 97.3 cents higher than a year earlier, and 61.2 cents higher than two years earlier. Those national averages do not represent every driver’s local price. For the same week, EIA reported these regional averages:
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| Region | Regular gasoline average |
|---|---|
| Lower Atlantic | $3.867 |
| Midwest | $3.882 |
| New England | $4.067 |
| Central Atlantic | $4.174 |
A household in the Central Atlantic therefore faces a different starting point from one in the Lower Atlantic. Local refinery outages, transportation costs, taxes, seasonal fuel specifications and competition between stations all affect the price on a particular sign.
The central forecast: relief later in 2026
EIA’s July 7 Short-Term Energy Outlook projected an average of about $3.80 per gallon in the third quarter and $3.40 in the fourth quarter. In practical terms, that would mean prices remain uncomfortable through much of the summer but improve as the driving season ends and gasoline inventories rebuild.
The forecast assumes that oil production and shipping flows disrupted by the conflict largely recover by the end of 2026. EIA expects most shut-in production to return during the first quarter of 2027 and forecasts Brent crude at an average of $74 per barrel in the third quarter of 2026 and $65 per barrel in 2027.
That is a conditional forecast, not a promise. It describes what happens if the supply disruption improves broadly as expected. It does not assume a permanent shortage or an uninterrupted move higher.
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How high could gasoline prices go?
The plausible range is wider than the EIA baseline. Kiplinger’s scenario analysis puts gasoline near $4 per gallon if the conflict winds down soon, but says prices could approach $5 per gallon if disruption continues into the coming months. It also warns that gasoline inventories could reach critical levels by Labor Day if tanker traffic through the Persian Gulf remains severely restricted.
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Crude oil could follow a similar two-way path. Kiplinger reported WTI near $76 per barrel, with a possible decline toward $70–$75 if a cease-fire holds, but a return to $90–$100 if threats to shipping continue. Those figures are scenarios rather than a consensus prediction.
The most useful way to read the forecasts is:
| Scenario | Possible gasoline path | What would drive it |
|---|---|---|
| Supply disruption eases | Below or around $4, then lower | Oil flows recover, inventories rebuild and summer demand fades |
| EIA baseline | About $3.80 in Q3, $3.40 in Q4 | Shipping and production normalize broadly as assumed |
| Disruption persists | Near $4 or potentially close to $5 | Restricted tanker traffic, low inventories and high refining margins |
Why the price rose so sharply
The conflict disrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a major oil-shipping route. FactCheck.org, citing the International Energy Agency, reported that roughly 20 million barrels per day of oil and oil products moved through the strait in 2025—about one-quarter of global seaborne oil trade.
Crude is the largest single component of the retail gasoline price and commonly represents about half of what drivers pay. But the pump price is not simply the crude price divided by a formula. It also includes refining, distribution, marketing and taxes.
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Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesFind Drivers →Repair Windows errors before they cause bigger problemsFix Now →Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minuteDriver Scan →Refining conditions have become especially important. Refinery outages and reduced global refining capacity widened gasoline crack spreads—the difference between the price of crude and the price of refined gasoline. That can keep gasoline expensive even when crude oil has begun to fall.
Low inventories create another problem. When supplies are tight, wholesale and retail margins can remain elevated. EIA’s outlook specifically expects those margins to offset part of the benefit from cheaper crude while inventories remain low.
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How long will higher prices last?
A cease-fire or restored shipping route would not make pump prices drop instantly. Oil and gasoline have to move through separate parts of the supply chain, and companies may still be selling fuel purchased at an earlier, higher cost.
FactCheck.org’s interviews with energy analysts concluded that meaningful normalization could take several weeks or longer. A return to pre-conflict prices could take months, particularly if production, refining capacity or inventories were damaged.
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1Scan for outdated or missing drivers - takes under a minute2Clear out junk files and repair common Windows errors3Fix the driver behind crashes, sound loss and screen glitchesHistorical evidence also argues against assuming a one-for-one, immediate decline. The Atlantic cited a Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas study finding that the adjustment between falling crude prices and retail gasoline prices can last more than 16 weeks. That is a historical observation, not a precise timetable for this episode.
Seasonality should provide some help. Gasoline demand normally declines after the summer driving season as road trips end and school and work routines resume. AAA said August would typically bring some relief, although the current crude and inventory situation could delay or weaken that seasonal decline.
What another $1 per gallon would cost your budget
The impact depends on miles driven and fuel economy, not just the price displayed at a station. A driver who buys 15 gallons pays $15 more for every $1-per-gallon increase. A household that uses 100 gallons per month pays $100 more per month, or $1,200 over a year if the increase lasts that long.
| Driving pattern | Fuel used | Extra cost from a $1 increase |
|---|---|---|
| 15-gallon fill-up | 15 gallons | $15 |
| 100 gallons per month | 1,200 gallons per year | $100 per month / $1,200 per year |
| 12,000 miles per year at 25 mpg | 480 gallons per year | $480 per year |
| 12,000 miles per year at 35 mpg | 343 gallons per year | About $343 per year |
For a quick personal estimate, divide your annual miles by your vehicle’s real-world miles per gallon, then multiply the result by the expected price increase. Use your actual fuel economy if possible; the number on the window sticker may not match stop-and-go commuting, winter driving or heavy loads.
Practical ways to manage the uncertainty
- Build a temporary fuel buffer. If your normal monthly gasoline bill is $200, setting aside an additional $50–$100 for the next few months can prevent a price spike from landing on a credit card.
- Track your local price, not only the national average. Compare nearby stations and account for membership or credit-card discounts, but do not drive several miles to save a few cents unless the purchase is already part of your route.
- Combine trips. A short extra trip wastes fuel when gasoline is expensive. Group errands and use the most efficient vehicle available for routine driving.
- Check tire pressure and driving habits. Underinflated tires, rapid acceleration and extended idling can raise fuel use. These steps will not solve a supply shortage, but they reduce the number of gallons your household needs.
- Do not make a major vehicle decision based on a short forecast. Buying or selling a car solely because gasoline is temporarily near $4 or $5 can cost more than the fuel savings. Compare the full ownership cost, including financing, insurance, maintenance and depreciation.
What not to assume
It would be wrong to say gasoline prices will immediately collapse when the conflict ends. Wholesale prices may respond first, while shipping delays, refinery limits, inventories and retail replacement-cost pricing slow the decline.
It is also not established that gas stations are deliberately colluding to keep prices high. Available analysis points instead to replacement-cost pricing, inventory timing, local competition and consumer behavior. Likewise, a lower crude-oil price does not guarantee an equally large drop in gasoline: refining margins and low inventories can absorb part of the decline.
Finally, an old forecast should not be treated as current simply because its headline matches the question. A February 28, 2026 Forbes article with this title predates the later EIA outlook and subsequent market developments. Forecasts need to be judged by their publication date and assumptions.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What drivers should expect
The strongest current conclusion is that gasoline remains vulnerable to another increase, but the central forecast is for a gradual decline rather than an indefinite climb. Under EIA’s baseline, the national average moves toward $3.80 in the third quarter and $3.40 in the fourth quarter. A prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption could keep prices near $4–$5 and push meaningful relief beyond the fall.
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For personal planning, budget for elevated prices through the summer, test what a $1 increase would do to your monthly cash flow, and treat any decline as uncertain until inventories and shipping flows clearly improve.
Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration Short-Term Energy Outlook; EIA weekly petroleum data; AAA; FactCheck.org; Kiplinger.
FAQ
Will gas prices reach $5 per gallon?
They could in a prolonged supply-disruption scenario, according to Kiplinger’s analysis, but $5 is not the central forecast. EIA expects the national average to be about $3.80 in the third quarter and $3.40 in the fourth quarter if oil and shipping flows recover.
When will gas prices go down?
The EIA baseline expects substantial relief in fall 2026 as summer demand fades and inventories rebuild. If the disruption ends, wholesale prices could respond relatively quickly, but retail prices may take several weeks or longer to normalize and could take months to return to pre-conflict levels.
Why are gas prices high when crude oil prices fall?
Crude is only one part of the pump price. Refinery outages, limited refining capacity, low gasoline inventories, transportation costs, taxes and elevated refining margins can keep retail gasoline expensive after crude begins declining.
How much does a $1 increase in gas prices cost a household?
Multiply your annual gallons by $1. For example, a vehicle traveling 12,000 miles per year at 25 miles per gallon uses 480 gallons, so a $1-per-gallon increase costs about $480 over a year. A household using 100 gallons monthly would pay $100 more each month.
The Bottom Line
Gasoline may rise further, but an indefinite increase is not the most defensible outlook. EIA expects roughly $3.80 per gallon in the third quarter of 2026 and $3.40 in the fourth quarter if oil flows recover and inventories rebuild. Continued shipping disruption could keep prices near $4 or push them toward $5, while even a resolution would probably take weeks or months to reach household budgets fully.
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