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Potentially—but the widely reported figure was a conditional estimate of losses to the U.S. economy, not a measured loss to Canada. In March 2025, Forbes reported that a sustained decline of more than 20% in Canadian visitors could mean more than US$4 billion in U.S. economic losses that year. Later data confirm fewer Canadian trips to the United States and lower Canadian spending there, but they do not establish that the U.S. actually lost US$4 billion because of a boycott.
What the US$4 billion estimate meant
Forbes reported the estimate on March 10, 2025, applying U.S. Travel Association metrics to a scenario in which Canadian visitors to the United States declined by more than 20% and that decline continued through 2025. It was a forecast scenario, not an official accounting of losses after the year ended. Forbes’ report also cited the U.S. Travel Association’s warning that a 10% reduction could mean US$2.1 billion in lost spending and 140,000 jobs jeopardized; that, too, was an industry estimate rather than a realized count.
The distinction matters: “more than US$4 billion” referred to potential U.S. economic losses under stated assumptions. It was not a figure for Canada’s losses, nor was it a tally of lost U.S. GDP or a post-year measure of the boycott’s effect.
What the forecast expected before 2025
The U.S. Travel Association and Tourism Economics’ Winter 2025 forecast projected 21.5 million Canadian visitors to the United States in 2025, up from 20.4 million in 2024. That forecast supplied a baseline for expected travel growth; it did not itself estimate a boycott-related loss. The forecast table and methodology identify the association and Tourism Economics as the sources.
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What happened to Canadian travel and spending
Statistics Canada’s release covering full-year 2025 found 23.1 million Canadian-resident trips that included a visit to the United States, down 23.5% from 2024. Spending by Canadian residents during U.S. visits was C$18.8 billion, down 15.1% year over year. These are measures of trips and Canadian spending—not a calculation of the U.S. economy’s total losses or of losses caused specifically by a boycott. Statistics Canada’s 2025 travel and tourism results reports both figures.
The trip count is not a count of unique travelers: it counts trips that included a U.S. visit. The spending figure is in Canadian dollars and describes what Canadian residents spent during those visits. Neither should be treated as interchangeable with U.S. tourism receipts, U.S. GDP impact, or the Forbes forecast’s broader economic-loss estimate.
Did Canadians redirect their travel?
The figures show a broader shift, not simply a drop in travel. Statistics Canada reported 342.0 million domestic visits in 2025, up 1.5% year over year, and C$81.3 billion in domestic tourism expenditures, up 8.7%. Visits and spending on overseas destinations also increased, according to the same release.
Destination Canada separately projects that the domestic travel shift could add C$4.4 billion in Canadian domestic tourism spending between 2025 and 2027. Its August 2026 update also reports C$140.5 billion in direct visitor spending in Canada in 2025. These Canadian-side figures use different currencies, periods and measures from the possible US$4 billion U.S. loss scenario; they are not evidence that Canada gained exactly what the United States may have lost. Destination Canada’s tourism-value overview gives the projections and spending figure.
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How much of the decline can be attributed to a boycott?
The available figures do not isolate the effect of a boycott from other influences on travel demand. Statistics Canada discusses changing travel alongside political tensions. The Bank of Canada’s analysis also connects the shift to the Buy Canadian movement and says, “Canadians have instead been travelling within Canada and to international destinations other than the United States.” The article notes that its “Sparks at Bank” pieces are produced independently from the Governing Council. Read the Bank of Canada analysis.
The Associated Press also reported coinciding pressures, including a weaker Canadian dollar and higher airfare and hotel prices. Those factors make it unsafe to attribute the entire decline to a boycott. The AP report describes the travel context. Flight Centre Travel Group Canada communications head Amra Durakovic told Forbes, “Canadians are still eager to travel but have shifted behavior and now plan to explore locations outside of the U.S.” That is her comment as quoted by Forbes, not an independently verified survey result.
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