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Yes. USDA Foreign Agricultural Service estimates published April 7, 2026, put Brazil first in 2025 beef production, at 12.605 million metric tons, compared with 11.837 million for the United States. Both figures use carcass-weight equivalent. That ranking does not mean the global supply squeeze is over: USDA forecasts lower world production and exports in 2026, and expects China’s import restrictions to reshape trade.
How large was Brazil’s lead?
The USDA’s April 7, 2026 global report estimates Brazil produced 768,000 metric tons more beef than the United States in 2025. Its figures are in thousand metric tons, carcass-weight equivalent; they are estimates rather than a final audited count. USDA FAS, Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade, April 7, 2026.
| Country | 2025 production estimate | 2026 production forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 12.605 million metric tons | 12.370 million metric tons |
| United States | 11.837 million metric tons | 11.741 million metric tons |
For 2026, the same global USDA table projects Brazil’s lead will narrow to 629,000 metric tons. The ranking is consistent within that report, but estimates and forecasts can change as new information arrives.
Why the 2025 estimate changed
When Reuters reported the crossover on January 7, 2026, official production figures had not yet been released. Analysts were revising their estimates as Brazil’s output proved stronger than expected. Athenagro’s Mauricio Nogueira estimated growth of 4 percent in 2025 after previously forecasting a 2.7 percent decline. Rabobank revised its projection to 0.5 percent growth and 12.5 million tons; USDA had raised its estimate in December by 450,000 tons, to 12.35 million. The April USDA table later put Brazil’s 2025 output at 12.605 million tons. These are successive estimates from different dates and organizations, not competing measurements made at the same time. Reuters, January 7, 2026.
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Does Brazil’s production lead mean more beef is available worldwide?
Not automatically. Production counts beef made in a country; exports count the portion sold abroad. A country can lead in output without leading exports, and production rankings alone do not establish how much beef reaches a particular market or what consumers pay.
Global output and exports are both forecast to fall
USDA’s April 2026 outlook forecasts world beef production of 61.6 million metric tons in 2026, down 1 percent from 2025, and exports of 13.8 million metric tons, also down 1 percent. Brazil’s own production is forecast to decline from 12.605 million tons in 2025 to 12.370 million in 2026. In that outlook, Brazil is still expected to be the world’s largest beef producer despite the decline. USDA FAS, April 7, 2026.
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China’s import limits complicate the trade picture
USDA expects China’s beef imports to fall 13 percent in 2026 as tariff-rate quotas limit imports, particularly from Brazil and Australia. It forecasts exports from Brazil and Australia down only 2 percent, supported in part by U.S. import demand. The United States is forecast to increase imports by 6 percent, with demand for lean trimmings cited as a factor. These forecasts describe trade flows, not a guarantee that beef will become cheaper or easier to find in every market. USDA FAS, April 7, 2026.
Production and export leadership are different
USDA’s Brasilia office describes Brazil as the world’s largest beef exporter. It reports that Brazil exported 4.38 million metric tons in 2025, up 20.4 percent year over year. That export measure is distinct from production: it captures beef shipped abroad rather than all beef produced. The report forecasts Brazilian exports at 4.15 million tons carcass-weight equivalent in 2026, down 5 percent. USDA FAS Brasilia, Brazil: Livestock and Products Semi-annual, March 3, 2026.
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Why output may ease in 2026
Brazil: a turn toward retaining cattle
The Brasilia report expects Brazil’s cattle cycle to shift toward retention, as producers hold animals rather than send as many to slaughter. It forecasts slaughter down 2 percent in 2026. Fewer cattle slaughtered can restrain beef output even while Brazil remains the leading producer in the April global forecast.
United States: fewer cattle available for feedlots
USDA’s April global outlook forecasts U.S. production at 11.741 million metric tons in 2026, down 1 percent, and exports at 1.1 million tons, down 8 percent. It attributes the production decline to limited steers and heifers available for feedlot placement, compounded by restrictions on Mexican cattle imports. USDA FAS, April 7, 2026.
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Why USDA’s 2026 ranking forecasts conflict
USDA’s April global table forecasts Brazil ahead of the United States in 2026, by 629,000 tons. Its Brasilia country report, published March 3, instead says Brazil will remain second-largest, with its forecast 12,000 metric tons below the United States. The country report gives differing forecast values across its text and tables. For a like-for-like global ranking, the April global table is the clearer comparison; the disagreement is a reminder that forecasts depend on the release, date, and assumptions used. USDA FAS Brasilia, March 3, 2026.
What this means for shoppers and markets
Brazil’s 2025 production lead and export growth add substantial supply to international markets, but they do not prove that the global squeeze has ended. USDA’s 2026 outlook points to lower global production and exports, China’s reduced import demand, and a shift in cattle supply in Brazil and the United States. The available estimates do not establish a definite effect on retail beef prices; those also depend on where beef is produced, trade rules, demand, and local distribution.
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