Brazilian soybean area was expected to expand by about 500,000 hectares in the 2025/26 season, according to a May 6, 2025 forecast from Andre Pessoa, president of consultancy Agroconsult. Pessoa called the increase “residual growth,” not a repeat of the much larger 2-million-hectare jumps seen in some earlier seasons.
How much soybean area growth was forecast?
Reuters, in a report carried by Agriculture.com on May 6, 2025, quoted Pessoa forecasting about 500,000 additional hectares for Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean crop. Agroconsult had calculated 47.8 million hectares planted in 2024/25, the current season at the time of that report. The 500,000-hectare figure was an outlook, not a final measurement.
Pessoa said the increase would be more notable in the Center-West and Northeast. He described it as “residual” because it was substantially smaller than earlier seasons in which soybean area grew by roughly 2 million hectares.
How later estimates compare
Subsequent agency figures also put Brazilian soybean area around 49.1 million hectares, but they were issued on different dates, used different area labels and comparison bases, and should not be treated as a single final result.
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| Source and date | Area measure and figure | Comparison or status | Other reported detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, Brasilia, 2025 | 49.1 million hectares planted | Up 3% from its revised 2024/25 estimate; 2025/26 estimate | FAS cited demand, weather, productivity and policy context. |
| CONAB, November 13, 2025 | 49.1 million hectares sown | Up 3.6%; second crop estimate | Production estimate: 177.6 million metric tons. |
| USDA Economic Research Service, January 14, 2026 | 49.1 million hectares harvested | MY 2025/26 forecast | Production forecast: 178.0 million metric tons; yield forecast: 3.63 metric tons per hectare. |
The matching 49.1-million-hectare totals do not make the estimates interchangeable: planted or sown area is not the same measure as harvested area, and each agency’s growth rate depends on its own baseline. The sources cited here do not establish a final realized acreage total.
What could support or limit expansion?
Regional competition with corn
Pessoa said farmers also expected to plant more first-crop corn in summer. Corn competes with soybeans for land in some parts of Southern Brazil, although he still anticipated soybean-area growth, especially in the Center-West and Northeast.
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Demand, weather and productivity
USDA FAS cited strong global demand, weather more stable than during the recent El Niño-affected season, and improved productivity as supports for its crop estimate. It also pointed to irrigation innovation, available technology and Brazil’s “vazio sanitário” crop-free-period guidelines as factors that could contribute to productivity. These were agency-reported considerations, not proof that any one factor caused a particular acreage outcome.
Weather reports varied by point in the season. CONAB said instability in Mato Grosso in October left some early-planted soybean fields with water deficits, affecting plant populations and initial establishment. USDA ERS later reported favorable December rainfall in most regions and good conditions in major producing states. Those observations describe different periods rather than a season-long contradiction.
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Policy and potential land availability
USDA FAS reported that contacts viewed the end of, or greater flexibility in, the Soy Moratorium as a possible source of significant additional expansion in 2026. The agreement aims to prevent sales of soy grown on Amazon-biome land deforested after July 2008. FAS also described Brazilian Supreme Court recognition of the agreement’s legitimacy and benefits, followed by a revision of part of an injunction concerning Mato Grosso tax incentives. This is the report’s dated account, not a complete update on the agreement’s current legal status.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What the forecast means—and what it does not
The clearest reading is that Pessoa expected modest net expansion for 2025/26, concentrated more in Brazil’s Center-West and Northeast, despite land competition from corn in parts of the South. Later USDA and CONAB updates were consistent with an area near 49.1 million hectares, but their definitions and reference points differ. None of the cited figures should be presented as a final observed acreage result.
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