On February 25, 2025, the Associated Press reported that 794 of nearly 2,300 contracts on the Department of Government Efficiency’s updated cancellation list were expected to produce no savings. That is the basis for the “nearly 40%” figure—not a current rate for all DOGE cancellations. AP said those contracts were fully obligated and that goods or services had in many cases already been provided. But an obligation is a commitment of funds, not proof that the government had already paid every dollar.
What the nearly 40% figure actually measures
The figure comes from AP’s analysis of DOGE’s published list as it stood on February 25, 2025: 794 of nearly 2,300 listed contracts were expected to yield no savings. It describes that dated list and AP’s assessment of its entries; it does not establish what share of all DOGE contract cancellations, past or future, produced no savings. GAO’s later work examined DOGE’s savings reporting and contract actions, but did not independently validate this specific February 2025 percentage.
“No savings” in this context means that canceling the listed contract was not expected to reduce spending because its funds had already been fully obligated. AP also reported that goods or services had in many cases already been delivered. Those details help explain the result, but do not show that every obligated dollar had already left the Treasury.
Obligated, paid and spent are not interchangeable
- Obligation: The government records a commitment of funds, generally when it enters into a contract or otherwise makes a binding commitment. An obligation is not the same as a payment.
- Outlay or disbursement: Money actually paid by the government. Payments may occur as work is performed or goods are delivered, after the obligation is recorded.
- Deobligation: Funds removed from an existing obligation, for example when the government reduces contract work or determines that committed funds are no longer needed. This can reduce spending, but it does not by itself show that a particular amount of future work was permanently avoided.
So the headline shorthand “money that’s already been spent” is too broad if read literally. The AP finding was that these contracts were fully obligated, with goods or services already provided in many cases—not that all the money had necessarily been disbursed. The AP report does not quantify how much had been paid versus how much remained obligated.
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Why contract value is not the same as savings
DOGE’s Savings / Wall of Receipts page defines contract savings as total potential contract value, including options, minus the amount currently obligated. That calculation can indicate the difference between a contract’s potential ceiling and committed funds. But a contract’s maximum value, including optional work, is not necessarily an amount the government would otherwise have spent.
That distinction matters when interpreting a cancellation. A contract may have a large potential value but little or no work remaining; the unused ceiling is not automatically cash saved. Conversely, a reduction in work can lower future spending even if the contract was not fully terminated. To assess the fiscal effect, readers need to distinguish a contract’s total or potential value from its obligated amount, and both from actual outlays.
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What GAO found about DOGE’s later savings reports
In its 2026 review, the Government Accountability Office examined DOGE’s reported savings and the methods behind them. As of July 7, 2026, DOGE reported $110.34 billion in savings across 29,591 contracts, grants and leases. GAO said limitations affected the transparency and reliability of those figures; the reported amount is not an audited total of realized savings.
For contracts, DOGE reported $61.02 billion in savings across 13,440 entries. GAO’s analysis represented those entries as 13,476 contracts after identifying bundled records. GAO found that the stated calculation could be replicated for 7,710 contracts, associated with 27.5% of reported contract savings. For another 3,910 contracts—associated with 60.7% of those savings—DOGE used other calculations or GAO could not determine the calculation. GAO could not link 1,856 additional contracts because identifying data were missing. As GAO put it, “some savings estimates are incorrect or lack supporting evidence.” See GAO-26-108615.
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GAO also found no termination action recorded for 2,503 contracts associated with $27.4 billion in reported savings. That discrepancy does not establish that nothing changed on every contract: a reduction in contract value, deobligation or another action may have occurred. It does mean that a reported savings entry should not automatically be read as proof of a termination.
Why termination does not automatically mean net savings
A termination ends some or all contract work, but it does not always eliminate the underlying need. Work may continue under another contract, or a contract may be only partially terminated. GAO noted that the federal contract data it analyzed do not distinguish full from partial terminations; work can remain ongoing after a partial termination.
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GAO identified $77.8 million in deobligated funds in its review of 21 selected contracts at the Departments of Defense and Health and Human Services. That is a result from the selected contracts, not a portfolio-wide total. Deobligations can represent reduced commitments, while estimated cost avoidance looks forward and remains uncertain. If the same work is shifted to another contract, later obligations or settlement costs can shrink or erase the expected savings.
DHS: canceled IT work was partly funded elsewhere
A separate GAO review illustrates how replacement work can change the outcome. The Department of Homeland Security deobligated a net total of more than $92 million across 438 contracts terminated for convenience from January 20 through September 30, 2025, after more than $1.6 billion had been obligated on those contracts. That net deobligation is distinct from the department’s larger estimate of potential future cost avoidance.
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GAO found that most of DHS’s reported $10.5 billion in potential cost avoidance was tied to IT work funded through other contracts. DHS obligated more than $1.7 billion in fiscal year 2025 through those other contract vehicles to meet requirements also associated with terminated contracts. GAO concluded the reported potential avoidance would not fully materialize, stating: “Thus, $1.7 billion in costs were not avoided but were incurred through other contracts.” The finding is specific to DHS’s reviewed IT work; it is not a general estimate for all DOGE cancellations. See GAO-26-109096.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to read claims about DOGE savings
When a cancellation or savings figure is reported, check what is being counted before treating it as money saved:
- Date and dataset: Is the number a snapshot of a particular list, or a claim about all cancellations?
- Value being compared: Is it the contract’s potential ceiling, the obligated amount, or an actual payment?
- Action taken: Was the contract fully or partly terminated, modified, reduced in value or deobligated?
- Work after termination: Did the agency stop the work, or fund the same need through another contract?
- Type of savings: Is the figure an estimated gross reduction or realized net savings after replacement work and other costs?
The February 2025 figure was a meaningful warning that a cancellation count does not necessarily translate into lower spending: AP found that 794 of nearly 2,300 listed contracts were expected to save nothing. Later GAO findings show a broader accounting problem: reported values, recorded actions, obligations and actual avoided costs are different measures, and the available records did not consistently establish how DOGE derived all its savings estimates.
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