On January 15, 2025, Argentina’s Rosario grains exchange cut its 2024/25 corn forecast to 48 million metric tons, down from 50–51 million. It also lowered its soybean outlook from 53–53.5 million tons, but the Reuters report did not give a revised soybean figure. The exchange cited hot, dry conditions during a critical period for early corn and expected only very moderate rain in the days ahead.
What the exchange changed in its 2024/25 forecast
| Crop | Previous outlook | January 15, 2025 outlook |
|---|---|---|
| Corn | 50–51 million metric tons | 48 million metric tons |
| Soybeans | 53–53.5 million metric tons | Below the previous range; no new figure stated |
The figures are the Rosario grains exchange’s outlook as reported by Reuters on January 15, 2025, for the 2024/25 crop year. The corn revision is specific; the soybean revision is directional only. It would be inaccurate to assign the exchange a precise new soybean estimate based on this report. Reuters report republished by Successful Farming.
Why drought led to the cuts
Early corn faced stress at a critical stage
The exchange pointed to extreme temperatures, low relative humidity, high solar radiation and limited rainfall. It said the conditions “have aligned negatively at the most critical moment for early corn,” as reported by Reuters. The combination of heat and limited moisture raised concern about yields during early corn’s sensitive development period.
Soybeans lost yield potential
For soybeans, the exchange said a month without rain in the agricultural core would affect yields and ruled out “the high productivity scenarios that were considered until recently.” That assessment explains the downgrade, but the report did not translate it into a replacement tonnage estimate.
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What rain was expected at the time
As of January 15, 2025, the exchange expected only very moderate accumulated rainfall in the coming days. That outlook implied limited near-term relief for crops already under stress; it was a forecast made at that time, not a current weather update.
How later crop information adds context
A later USDA Foreign Agricultural Service country report described early corn flowering during a hot, dry stretch from late December to mid-January, with yields erratic and highly variable. It said late corn was still mainly vegetative during January’s dry spell and noted beneficial February and March rains for later crop development. The report also put 2024/25 market corn estimates in a 46–49 million-ton range and gave the USDA post estimate as 49.0 million tons. Those figures came later and from a different institution, so they are context—not a replacement for what Rosario forecast in January. USDA FAS, Grain and Feed Annual: Argentina (2025).
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A separate USDA Economic Research Service assessment dated March 12, 2026, lowered its estimate for Argentina’s 2025/26 corn harvest by 1.0 million metric tons to 52 million, citing lower yields after sporadic rainfall during critical stages. That is a different crop year and a later assessment, not an update to the 2024/25 Rosario forecast. USDA ERS, Feed Outlook: March 2026.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Why the forecast mattered beyond Argentina
Reuters described Argentina as a major exporter of corn and soybean meal and oil, so a production outlook there matters to international agricultural markets. But the January report did not quantify how this particular forecast revision affected futures prices, export volumes or realized yields. It should not be read as evidence of a specific price move.
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In a separate Reuters report carried in Refinitiv’s February 4, 2025, Inside Commodities newsletter, agro-climatologist Eduardo Sierra offered a conditional scenario: “If it started to rain now, you could have 45 million tons of each crop. Every week in February that goes by without rain, you lose 5 million tons more.” He estimated both crops would end closer to 40 million tons. This was Sierra’s scenario in a separate February report—not the exchange’s January forecast and not a realized production result. Reuters report reproduced in Refinitiv Inside Commodities.
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