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Will There Be a Turkey Shortage for Thanksgiving 2026? What USDA Forecasts

USDA projects substantial turkey production in 2026, alongside lower ending stocks and higher wholesale-price expectations. The figures do not establish a nationwide Thanksgiving shortage or predict local grocery prices.
From TheFinanceBase Team3 min to read
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USDA’s latest forecast points to tighter turkey supplies and higher wholesale prices in 2026, but it does not establish a nationwide Thanksgiving shortage. The agency still projects 5.099 billion pounds of U.S. turkey production this year, including 1.300 billion pounds in the fourth quarter. Those national figures cannot tell shoppers whether a nearby store will have a particular size or what it will charge.

Does USDA forecast a Thanksgiving turkey shortage?

No nationwide retail shortage is established by the latest USDA outlook. In its September 17, 2026 Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) projected 2026 turkey production at 5.099 billion pounds, down just 1 million pounds from its previous estimate. It projected fourth-quarter production at 1.300 billion pounds, unchanged from August.

Those are national production estimates, not a count of turkeys available at grocery stores. The outlook supports describing the market as tighter than previously projected, but it does not show that shoppers across the country will be unable to buy a Thanksgiving turkey. Store inventory, size selection and local availability are not established by the national figures. USDA ERS’s September 2026 outlook is the latest forecast cited here.

What the supply figures show

Production is projected to remain substantial

ERS’s 5.099-billion-pound forecast is for total U.S. turkey production in 2026; it is not a Thanksgiving-only estimate. The agency projected 2027 production at 5.125 billion pounds. The small September revision to the 2026 estimate does not, on its own, indicate a sudden production collapse.

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Fewer birds do not always mean less turkey meat

In July 2026, turkey slaughter was 16.5 million birds, 4.5% below July 2025. Yet July production was slightly higher year over year: average live slaughter weight rose from 31.0 pounds per bird in July 2025 to 32.5 pounds in July 2026. Production was 427.3 million pounds in July, compared with 450 million pounds in June. Bird counts and pounds of meat therefore tell different parts of the supply story.

Stocks and exports affect the national balance

ERS lowered its projection for 2026 ending stocks by 10 million pounds, to 190 million pounds, and raised its export forecast by 15 million pounds, to 441 million pounds. It projected imports at 37 million pounds. Through July, exports totaled 251.9 million pounds, with nearly 80% shipped to Mexico. These are national supply-and-use estimates; they are not measurements of grocery-store inventory.

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Will turkey cost more this Thanksgiving?

USDA raised its 2026 annual average wholesale-price forecast for frozen whole hen turkeys by 4.3 cents, to 174.6 cents per pound ($1.746). For the fourth quarter, its forecast was 170 cents per pound ($1.70); the third-quarter forecast was 182 cents per pound ($1.82). These are wholesale forecasts, not predictions of the price on a supermarket shelf.

The reported weekly wholesale price was 181.33 cents per pound for the week ending August 28, 2026, and 179.67 cents per pound in the first week of September, when 60,000 pounds traded. A weekly market price and an annual or quarterly forecast describe different periods and should not be treated as a guaranteed retail price.

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ERS explains that its historical wholesale prices are for bulk quantities, usually resale, and are lower than consumer retail prices. Its Turkey Sector page lists annual average wholesale prices for frozen whole turkey hens of $0.89 per pound in 2019, $1.07 in 2020, $1.23 in 2021, $1.55 in 2022, $1.40 in 2023 and $0.94 in 2024. These historical figures provide context, not a forecast of what a household will pay in 2026. USDA ERS’s Turkey Sector page was updated November 18, 2025.

How to check availability and compare prices near you

National forecasts cannot answer whether a specific store has the bird you want. Check retailers serving your area as Thanksgiving approaches, and compare the actual listing or ask the store directly.

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  • Availability: Confirm the turkey is in stock or available to order, rather than relying on a general seasonal listing.
  • Format: Compare fresh and frozen options separately.
  • Size: Check the listed weight or weight range against how much turkey you need.
  • Total cost: Compare the price for the whole bird, not only a per-pound figure; retailer promotions and terms can differ.
  • Timing: Check pickup or delivery dates and any ordering deadline.

These are practical shopper checks, not factors quantified by USDA’s national wholesale forecast. Local prices, promotions and selection can differ by retailer and location.

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Where to monitor updated turkey-market information

USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) publishes turkey market information, including a National Turkey Market-at-a-Glance, weekly and monthly reports, federally inspected slaughter data, cold storage information and weekly grocery-store turkey feature activity. These reports can help track market conditions, but the landing page is not a lookup for a particular store’s inventory. Visit USDA AMS Turkey Market News Reports for the available reports.

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USDA’s release calendar listed a Turkey Hatchery report for October 13, 2026, and the September ERS outlook scheduled the next monthly outlook for October 16, 2026. Those dates were upcoming as of October 7, 2026; check whether the reports have been published before relying on new figures. USDA’s October 2026 release calendar

Product prices and availability are accurate as of the date/time indicated and are subject to change. Any price and availability information displayed on Amazon at the time of purchase will apply.

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