Bubblemaps estimated that six anonymous Polymarket accounts made roughly $1.2 million betting that the United States would strike Iran by February 28, 2026. The timing and funding patterns drew suspicion, but the available reporting does not identify the traders or prove they had inside information. The Block’s separate review of the accounts’ displayed figures calculated $989,191 in combined net profit.
How the six accounts made the bets
The accounts traded Polymarket’s “U.S. strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?” market. According to CoinDesk’s February 28 report, most of the wallets were newly created or funded within the preceding 24 hours. They bought Yes shares hours before explosions were reported in Tehran and other cities, and reportedly showed no activity beyond these predictions. CoinDesk reported that one account bought more than 560,000 shares at about 10.8 cents each; the position paid out close to $560,000 when the shares resolved at $1.
In a prediction market, a Yes share that resolves in the buyer’s favor pays $1. Buying at a low price can therefore produce a large return if the event occurs, though the buyer risks losing the amount spent if it does not. The account’s payout is not the same as its profit: the cost of buying the shares must be deducted.
Why reports give different profit totals
The roughly $1.2 million figure is Bubblemaps’ estimate, as relayed by CoinDesk. The Block reviewed the six profiles’ displayed profit-and-loss figures and calculated combined net profit of $989,191. Its account of the largest wallet reported $494,375 in net profit across four predictions, including a 560,680-share position in the February 28 contract. These are not interchangeable figures: one is Bubblemaps’ estimate, while the other is an outlet’s calculation from profile data.
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Bloomberg also attributed the finding to Bubblemaps and described the results as around $1 million. It reported $529 million in trading on contracts tied to the timing of strikes. That is market trading volume—not money won by the six accounts. Bloomberg’s report gives that figure in the context of the broader contracts.
What made the trades look suspicious
The concern came from the combination of recently created or funded wallets, concentrated Yes bets shortly before the reported explosions, and little or no apparent trading activity outside the predictions. The Block quoted Bubblemaps CEO Nicolas Vaiman saying: “It’s almost impossible to be 100% certain [of insider knowledge] in these cases, but given the size of the bets, the freshly funded wallets, and the timing around the bets, it felt convincing enough for us to share.”
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That is a rationale for flagging an unusual pattern, not proof of how the traders learned about the strikes. Public reporting described suspicious timing; it did not establish who controlled the accounts, whether the traders coordinated, or whether any of them had access to nonpublic government information.
What congressional scrutiny does—and does not—show
Senators Sheldon Whitehouse and Elizabeth Warren cited reports about the six accounts and the $1.2 million estimate in a letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. They raised concerns about possible recurring misuse of nonpublic government information and asked questions about other trades and enforcement. The letter shows political scrutiny; it is not a finding that these six accounts were investigated or that misconduct was proved.
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A later Associated Press report, published April 9, 2026, covered congressional calls for investigations into prediction-market wagers, including trades associated with a ceasefire announcement. It also described a separate account that reportedly made roughly $550,000 on trades effectively betting on a U.S. strike and Khamenei’s removal from office. That later account and episode should not be combined with the six-account estimate.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.How to read the headline figure
- Roughly $1.2 million: Bubblemaps’ estimate for the six accounts’ profits, as reported by CoinDesk.
- $989,191: The Block’s combined net-profit calculation from the six profiles’ displayed figures.
- $529 million: Bloomberg’s reported trading volume across contracts tied to strike timing, not the six accounts’ winnings.
- Roughly $550,000: AP’s report about a different account and later-described trades, not part of the six-account total.
The figures describe different calculations, accounts, or measures. The strongest supported conclusion is that a blockchain analytics firm identified a small group of unusually timed, apparently profitable bets; the public reporting does not establish insider trading or identify the people behind them.
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