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Re:

Ag Land Values Were Mostly Stable Through the First Half of 2025

USDA’s annual 2025 farmland averages increased from 2024, but Federal Reserve surveys showed mixed regional changes and no precise national first-half rate.
From TheFinanceBase Team4 min to read

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Farmland values were broadly firm through the first half of 2025, but there was no single national first-half change rate. Federal Reserve district surveys showed mixed movements by region and land type, while the USDA’s national figures are annual estimates based on an April 1 reference date—not a measure of January-to-June price changes.

What the national USDA figures say about farmland values

The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) reported 2025 U.S. averages of $4,350 per acre for farm real estate, up $180, or 4.3%, from 2024; $5,830 per acre for cropland, up $260, or 4.7%; and $1,920 per acre for pasture, up $90, or 4.9%. These are national annual estimates, not changes measured only during the first half of the year. USDA NASS, Land Values 2025 Summary

NASS’s Agricultural Land Values and Technology Use Survey uses April 1 as its reference date. The agency collects responses by mail and telephone from late April through early June, then publishes estimates by August. The survey covers farms and ranches in the United States except Alaska and Hawaii, including all farm real estate, cropland, and pasture. Its target population includes operations with at least one acre of agricultural land and at least $1,000 in actual or potential agricultural sales. USDA NASS, Land Values Methodology and Quality Measures

What regional lender surveys showed in the first half

Federal Reserve district surveys provide more timely regional signals than the annual USDA release, but they reflect reporting agricultural lenders—not a national census of land sales. The results differed across districts and land categories.

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Kansas City Fed: cropland lower, ranchland higher

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City said agricultural real estate values in its Tenth District declined slightly through the first half of 2025. Lenders reported cropland values about 2% lower year over year and ranchland values about 4% higher year over year. The second-quarter survey drew 105 lenders covering Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming, northern New Mexico, and the western third of Missouri. Kansas City Fed, second-quarter 2025 Tenth District agricultural credit survey

The Kansas City Fed placed the slight decline alongside subdued farm conditions, relatively low crop prices, weak crop profit margins, reduced working capital, and elevated financing costs. It also noted that stronger cattle prices supported income in some areas. Those factors are reported context, not proof that any one of them caused a particular land-value movement.

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Chicago Fed: a modest annual rise, with a different quarterly measure

In the Seventh District, agricultural land values were up 1% year over year in the first quarter of 2025, based on responses from 141 agricultural banks. Separately, the district’s “good” farmland values were up 4% from the fourth quarter of 2024. The first figure compares with the same quarter a year earlier; the second compares with the immediately preceding quarter, so they describe different periods. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, AgLetter No. 2008, May 2025

For the second quarter, 69% of responding bankers expected district land values to remain stable, 25% expected a decrease, and 6% expected an increase. These are bankers’ expectations, not recorded price changes.

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Dallas Fed: nominal gains can coexist with real declines

The Dallas Fed’s first-quarter survey showed a split between inflation-adjusted and nominal measures. In its inflation-adjusted series, real values for dryland and ranchland decreased, while irrigated cropland remained stable. In the separate nominal dollar-per-acre table, district dryland was up around 9% year over year, while ranchland and irrigated cropland were each up less than 4% year over year. The figures are not contradictory: nominal values are stated in current dollars, while real values account for inflation. The survey collected responses from 63 agricultural bankers on March 4–12, 2025. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Agricultural Survey: First Quarter 2025

Are farmland values going up or down in 2025?

The answer depends on the geography, land type, measurement basis, and comparison period. The USDA’s annual national estimates were higher than in 2024, while Federal Reserve lenders reported a slight first-half decline for the Kansas City District overall and different movements for particular land types. Chicago’s first-quarter annual comparison showed a small increase, and Dallas’s nominal and inflation-adjusted indicators did not always move in the same direction. Taken together, the findings support “mostly stable” as a broad, qualified description—not a claim that every market rose or fell by the same amount.

How much is an acre of farmland worth?

The USDA’s 2025 annual national averages were $4,350 per acre for farm real estate, $5,830 for cropland, and $1,920 for pasture. Those figures can provide national context, but they are not a valuation of a particular parcel. Local location, land type, and other parcel-specific characteristics matter; the cited district survey results also cover different geographies and measures, so they should not be blended into one national price.

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How to compare farmland value estimates

Before comparing two figures, check that they refer to the same four things:

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  • Geography: United States, a Federal Reserve district, state, or smaller area.
  • Land type: all farm real estate, cropland, pasture or ranchland, irrigated cropland, or dryland.
  • Measurement basis: nominal dollars per acre or inflation-adjusted value.
  • Comparison period: year over year, quarter over quarter, or an annual estimate compared with the prior year.

The USDA release is useful for national per-acre context; the Federal Reserve surveys offer more timely but geographically limited lender-reported signals. Because those sources measure different things, the available figures do not establish a precise national percentage change from January through June 2025.

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