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In PwC’s February 2017 projection, China, India and the United States rank as the three largest economies in 2050 by GDP at purchasing power parity (PPP). Indonesia ranks fourth. The figures below are a definitive presentation of PwC’s particular projection—not a definitive prediction of the future. They are in constant 2016 US$ billions, not 2050 dollars at then-current prices.
Which countries will have the biggest economies in 2050?
No one can know the actual 2050 ranking in advance. The table gives PwC’s 2017 projection for 32 large economies, based on its assumptions about future growth. PwC used IMF estimates for the 2016 starting values and its own projections for 2030 and 2050. The 32 economies represented around 85% of world GDP at the time; this is not a list of every country or territory.
PwC’s projected 2050 GDP at PPP, in constant 2016 US$ billions:
| Rank | Economy | Projected GDP (PPP), 2016 US$bn |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | China | 58,499 |
| 2 | India | 44,128 |
| 3 | United States | 34,102 |
| 4 | Indonesia | 10,502 |
| 5 | Brazil | 7,540 |
| 6 | Russia | 7,131 |
| 7 | Mexico | 6,863 |
| 8 | Japan | 6,779 |
| 9 | Germany | 6,138 |
| 10 | United Kingdom | 5,369 |
| 11 | Turkey | 5,184 |
| 12 | France | 4,705 |
| 13 | Saudi Arabia | 4,694 |
| 14 | Nigeria | 4,348 |
| 15 | Egypt | 4,333 |
| 16 | Pakistan | 4,236 |
| 17 | Iran | 3,900 |
| 18 | South Korea | 3,539 |
| 19 | Philippines | 3,334 |
| 20 | Vietnam | 3,176 |
| 21 | Italy | 3,115 |
| 22 | Canada | 3,100 |
| 23 | Bangladesh | 3,064 |
| 24 | Malaysia | 2,815 |
| 25 | Thailand | 2,782 |
| 26 | Spain | 2,732 |
| 27 | South Africa | 2,570 |
| 28 | Australia | 2,564 |
| 29 | Argentina | 2,365 |
| 30 | Poland | 2,103 |
| 31 | Colombia | 2,074 |
| 32 | Netherlands | 1,496 |
Source: PwC, The World in 2050 (February 2017). The report’s table notes that Turkey’s 2016 GDP estimate was revised significantly upward after revisions by Turkey’s national statistical office.
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What will be the largest economy in 2050?
China is first in this PwC PPP ranking at 58,499 billion constant 2016 US dollars, followed by India at 44,128 billion and the United States at 34,102 billion. PwC’s overview projected China would account for 20% of world GDP at PPP in 2050. These are projections from the 2017 report, not measured outcomes or a 2026 forecast.
The order changes if GDP is measured at market exchange rates. In PwC’s 2050 market-exchange-rate table, China remains first, but the United States is second and India third. A ranking should therefore identify its GDP measure rather than calling the figures simply “GDP.”
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Is GDP by PPP different from nominal GDP?
Yes. GDP at PPP adjusts for differences in price levels between economies. It is intended to compare the volume of goods and services produced. GDP at market exchange rates converts output using prevailing exchange rates, so it measures value differently and can produce a different ranking. “Nominal GDP” generally refers to current-price output; it should not be confused with this table’s PPP figures in constant 2016 US dollars.
Constant 2016 dollars hold the price basis fixed, allowing the projected amounts to be compared without treating future inflation as real economic growth. The numbers are not estimates of how many dollars each economy’s output will be worth in 2050 at that time’s prices.
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How certain is the 2050 ranking?
It is a conditional long-range scenario, not a promise. PwC’s report said the world economy could more than double by 2050 assuming broadly growth-friendly policies—including no sustained long-term retreat into protectionism—and no major global civilization-threatening catastrophes. It also discusses institutional, infrastructure and employment challenges that could affect whether economies reach their growth potential.
PwC’s overview projected cumulative global GDP growth of 130% between 2016 and 2050. That figure belongs to the report’s 2017 outlook, not to observed growth since then. Actual results will depend on future policy, productivity, demographics, investment and events that cannot be known with certainty decades ahead.
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How to compare this projection with another 2050 ranking
Do not combine values from different forecasts into one ordered table unless their methods and units have been made comparable. Before comparing projections, check:
- GDP measure: PPP or market exchange rates.
- Forecast vintage and producer: when the projection was published and who produced it.
- Coverage: whether it includes the same economies; PwC modeled 32 large economies.
- Units and price basis: this table uses constant 2016 US$ billions.
- Assumptions: whether the numbers describe potential outcomes under a scenario or a guaranteed result.
PwC provides its report overview, PDF reports and interactive tool. Its published table is useful as one consistent projection; it should not be presented as the current consensus or as a complete ranking of all countries.
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