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On March 31, 2025, soybeans rose modestly in overnight trading while most grain futures changed little. Reuters poll estimates ahead of USDA reports pointed to slightly less soybean, corn, and wheat acreage than the department’s February outlook; money managers had reduced their net-long corn position; and the National Weather Service forecast elevated fire-weather risk in parts of the Southern Plains. These are historical observations and forecasts from that date, not current market or weather information.
What USDA acreage and grain-stocks figures were expected?
The USDA was scheduled to release its Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports at noon Washington time on March 31, 2025. The figures below were Reuters poll expectations reported before publication, not the USDA’s eventual results. The USDA’s report calendar lists the reports; Prospective Plantings covers intended planting and the prior year’s harvested acreage for principal crops, while Grain Stocks reports inventories by crop, state, and on-farm or off-farm position.
Expected planted area
Reuters poll estimates, as reported by Successful Farming, were below the USDA’s February outlook for each crop. The prior-year comparisons are planted area, not poll estimates.
| Crop | Reuters poll expectation for 2025 | USDA February outlook | Prior-year planted area |
|---|---|---|---|
| Soybeans | 83.762 million acres | 84 million acres | not stated in the March 31 article |
| Corn | 94.361 million acres | 94 million acres | not stated in the March 31 article |
| Wheat | 46.475 million acres | 47 million acres | not stated in the March 31 article |
The USDA explains that its Prospective Plantings report summarizes expected planting and last year’s harvested area; it is distinct from a final tally of planted acreage.
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Expected March 1 grain stocks
The Reuters poll also estimated March 1 inventories. Successful Farming compared each estimate with stocks at the same point a year earlier.
| Crop | Reuters poll expectation for March 1, 2025 | March 1, 2024 comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Soybeans | 1.901 billion bushels | 1.845 billion bushels |
| Corn | 8.151 billion bushels | 8.352 billion bushels |
| Wheat | 1.215 billion bushels | 1.089 billion bushels |
These are estimates ahead of the release, not official stock counts. The USDA’s Grain Stocks report draws on on-farm and off-farm stocks surveys and presents results by state and storage position.
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How did grain futures move overnight?
Successful Farming’s March 31, 2025 overnight snapshot showed modest gains in May soybeans and corn, with wheat mixed across the two listed markets. Prices and moves below are historical observations, not live quotes.
| May contract | Overnight move | Reported price |
|---|---|---|
| Soybeans | Up 4¾ cents | $10.27¾ per bushel |
| Soymeal | Up $3.20 | $296.70 per short ton |
| Soy oil | Down 0.18 cent | 44.98 cents per pound |
| Corn | Up ¼ cent | $4.53½ per bushel |
| Chicago Board of Trade wheat | Unchanged | $5.28¼ per bushel |
| Kansas City wheat | Down 5¼ cents | $5.46½ per bushel |
What did trader-position reports show?
For the seven days ending March 25, 2025, the article reported these futures positions and comparisons with the prior week. A net long means the reported category held more long than short exposure; a net short means more short than long.
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| Market and reported category | March 25 position | Prior-week comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Corn, money managers | 73,920 contracts net long | 104,430 net long |
| Soybeans, speculators | 33,821 contracts net short | 17,984 net short |
| Hard-red winter wheat | 44,541 contracts short | 45,698 short |
| Soft-red winter wheat | 90,137 contracts net short | 78,666 net short |
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission says its Commitments of Traders reports reflect Tuesday positions in markets where traders meet reporting thresholds and are generally released on Friday. Classifications use traders’ self-reported predominant business purpose; they do not establish why a trader took a position. The CFTC says it does not analyze the data or make recommendations. A week-to-week change therefore describes reported positioning, not proof of intent or a price forecast. See the CFTC’s Commitments of Traders explanation and reports.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Where was fire weather forecast?
The March 31 article described a forecast for dry, windy conditions in parts of western Kansas and the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Its figures were tied to those named areas and that forecast period, rather than a general or continuing warning.
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- Southwestern Kansas: sustained winds of 20–30 mph, gusts up to 50 mph, and relative humidity around 13%.
- Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles: winds of 25–35 mph, gusts up to 55 mph, with some areas potentially reaching 65 mph.
Quoting the National Weather Service as reported in the article: “A fire growth pattern will continue through Wednesday with breezy to windy conditions and very low humidity values each afternoon.” The statement was a forecast for the period described at publication, not a current alert. The NWS provides official forecasts and warnings through its weather.gov site.
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