On July 31, 2025, grain and soybean futures were little changed in overnight trading as traders weighed U.S.–China trade uncertainty against more favorable Corn Belt weather. The day’s other notable developments were a six-week high in U.S. fuel ethanol production and heat easing in parts of the Midwest even as dangerous heat persisted farther south. All prices and weather details below are a dated snapshot, not current conditions.
1. Grain and soybean futures barely moved overnight
Successful Farming reported that the December corn contract slipped ¼ cent to $4.12 a bushel, September Chicago wheat gained ½ cent to $5.24¼ a bushel, Kansas City wheat rose 3¼ cents to $5.25¼ a bushel, and November soybeans fell ¾ cent to $9.95 a bushel overnight on July 31, 2025. These are the article’s dated market observations, not live prices or investment advice. (Successful Farming)
| Contract or product | Overnight move reported July 31, 2025 | Reported price |
|---|---|---|
| December corn | Down ¼ cent | $4.12 per bushel |
| September Chicago wheat | Up ½ cent | $5.24¼ per bushel |
| Kansas City wheat | Up 3¼ cents | $5.25¼ per bushel |
| November soybeans | Down ¾ cent | $9.95 per bushel |
| Soymeal | Down 20 cents | $274.30 per short ton |
| Soybean oil | Down 0.52 cent | 55.59 cents per pound |
Trade-policy uncertainty was part of the backdrop
The report said U.S. and Chinese officials had concluded talks in Stockholm without an agreement to end the trade war. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the meetings as constructive and productive, while the outcome remained uncertain. It also cited a South China Morning Post report that Chinese officials had indicated a 90-day extension of the tariff truce; the report said Bessent would need President Donald Trump’s approval. That extension was reported, not confirmed as an agreement.
The article also noted Trump’s announced 15% tariffs on South Korean goods and 25% on Indian products, and his threat of blanket levies on August 1 for countries without bilateral agreements. Those details describe the political context as reported on July 31, 2025; they do not establish what happened afterward.
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Weather was another factor for grain markets
Successful Farming said rain was forecast for eastern Nebraska and west-central Iowa, while heat indexes in parts of Illinois and Indiana had declined after a very hot week. The article presented the more favorable Corn Belt weather as one factor weighing on prices. (Successful Farming)
2. Ethanol output reached a six-week high
For the week ending July 25, 2025, fuel ethanol production averaged 1.096 million barrels per day, up from 1.078 million barrels per day the previous week. Successful Farming identified that as the highest weekly rate since June 13. Midwest production was 1.04 million barrels per day, compared with 1.026 million the week before. (Successful Farming)
| Region | Production for week ending July 25, 2025 | Reported comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Midwest | 1.04 million barrels per day | Up from 1.026 million barrels per day |
| East Coast | 12,000 barrels per day | Up from 9,000 |
| Rocky Mountain | 11,000 barrels per day | Up from 10,000 |
| Gulf Coast | 25,000 barrels per day | Up 1,000 |
| West Coast | 9,000 barrels per day | Unchanged for a third week |
Stocks were 24.716 million barrels, not 24,716 million
The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s historical weekly series records ethanol stocks of 24,716 thousand barrels on July 25, 2025, versus 24,444 thousand barrels on July 18. Converted to millions, that is 24.716 million barrels, up from 24.444 million. Stocks measure inventory at a point in time; they are not the same measure as daily production. (U.S. Energy Information Administration historical ethanol stocks series)
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.3. Midwest heat eased, but extreme heat remained farther south
The July 31 report said the heat wave had moved out of parts of Illinois, Iowa, and Missouri. However, extreme heat warnings and advisories remained in parts of southeastern Oklahoma, much of Arkansas, and counties in Tennessee and Mississippi. National Weather Service maps cited in the article showed forecast heat indexes as high as 120°F that afternoon in southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana. These are forecasts and alerts described for July 31, 2025, not present-day conditions. (Successful Farming)
For eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, rain was expected, with some storms potentially becoming severe. Damaging winds and hail were identified as the main hazards. (Successful Farming)
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