Some high-risk investments can produce a 100% gain, but none of the categories discussed here has an established probability or timetable for doubling your money. The same forces that can magnify gains can also cause steep losses, including losing all the money invested—and, with some margin positions, more than you invested. The evidence supports explaining these risks, not naming eight investments as likely to double.
What does “could double” really mean?
It means only that a large gain is possible in some circumstances—not that it is probable, predictable or likely to happen within a particular period. The SEC’s Investor.gov says, “Typically a greater potential for profit (return) comes with a greater chance of losing money (risk).” A doubling claim without a stated time horizon and a credible basis for estimating the odds does not tell you whether an investment suits your needs.
High risk can come from different sources: leverage, derivatives, concentration in one company, or a highly volatile underlying asset. Those risks are not interchangeable, and the label “ETF” does not by itself make an investment diversified or low risk.
High-risk exposures and how losses can happen
The SEC’s investor materials support examining the following strategies and exposures. They are not a ranked list, and the evidence does not establish that any one of them is likely to double.
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| Exposure | How it works | Key loss risk |
|---|---|---|
| Leveraged or inverse ETFs | Generally seek a stated multiple or inverse of a benchmark’s daily performance. SEC, 2023. | Results over periods longer than a day can diverge substantially from the stated daily multiple, particularly as daily returns compound. |
| Leveraged single-stock ETFs | Use leverage on the performance of one company’s stock rather than a diversified index. SEC, 2022. | Leverage magnifies exposure to a single company, without index diversification; longer-period results can differ substantially from the daily objective. |
| Buying securities on margin | Uses borrowed money to buy securities. SEC, 2021. | Losses can exceed the money initially invested. The precise exposure depends on the position and borrowing. |
| Options | Contracts create different exposures depending on the position. SEC, 2021. | Risk varies by strategy; some option writers may face unlimited potential losses. |
| Bitcoin or ether held directly | Provides direct exposure to the crypto asset’s price. SEC, 2024. | Bitcoin and ether are speculative and highly volatile; a sharp price decline can cause substantial losses. |
| Crypto exchange-traded products | Provide listed-product exposure to crypto assets. SEC, 2024. | The product format does not remove the underlying price risk: bitcoin and ether remain speculative and highly volatile. |
What happens if you hold a leveraged ETF longer than one trading day?
Its return may be very different from the benchmark’s return multiplied by the fund’s stated leverage. Most leveraged and inverse ETFs reset their exposure daily. Over multiple days, the sequence of daily gains and losses compounds, so the result depends not just on where the benchmark ends but on the path it takes.
The SEC’s 2023 bulletin illustrates the effect with historical examples, not forecasts or typical outcomes. Over four months, one index gained 2% while a 2x daily leveraged ETF fell 6%. In another example, an index gained around 8% while a 3x daily leveraged ETF fell 53%. These examples show why a daily objective should not be treated as a promise about longer-term performance.
How should you compare a high-risk investment with its potential reward?
Before investing, assess the specific product or position—not just its advertised return. The SEC identifies risk and return, fees, diversification and liquidity as basic investment considerations. Use this checklist:
- Possible loss: Could you lose part or all of your investment? Could the position expose you to losses beyond the amount invested?
- Leverage or derivatives: Is the exposure amplified by borrowing, options or a daily leverage target? How does the specific position work?
- Holding period: Is the product designed for a particular period, such as a single trading day? What can change if you hold it longer?
- Diversification: Does the investment track a broad index, one company or a single asset?
- Fees and liquidity: What fees apply, and how readily could you sell at a price you consider fair?
- Seller and disclosures: Have you checked the firm or professional involved and read the product’s offering documents?
How can you spot a high-return investment pitch that may be fraudulent?
A promise of unusually high returns with little or no risk is a warning sign, not evidence that a deal is safe. The SEC’s Office of Investor Education and Advocacy calls such promises “a classic warning sign of fraud.” Be especially wary of pressure to act quickly or claims that make meaningful risk sound absent. Verify the firm and the professionals involved, and read the disclosures before handing over money.
Why this is not a reliable list of eight investments to buy
There is no defensible universal list of eight investments with established odds of doubling. The investment types above illustrate mechanisms that can create large gains as well as severe losses; they are not recommendations, and no doubling probability or timeline is established for them. Treat “could double” as a possibility, never as an expected outcome or a reason to overlook the risk of losing money.
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