The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 715.80 points on Friday, March 28, 2025, closing at 41,583.90, after the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that core PCE prices were 2.8% higher than a year earlier in February. That 2.8% was the annual rate for core inflation—not headline inflation. The BEA put headline PCE inflation at 2.5% year over year.
What did the February PCE report show?
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its February 2025 Personal Income and Outlays report, BEA 25-11, at 8:30 a.m. EDT on March 28. Its figures distinguish both the inflation measure and the time period being compared:
| Measure | Change from January 2025 | Change from February 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Headline PCE price index | 0.3% | 2.5% |
| Core PCE price index, excluding food and energy | 0.4% | 2.8% |
These are the BEA’s published figures in the March 28, 2025 release. The agency can revise historical estimates in later releases, so the values above refer to that release vintage. BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, February 2025
What does 2.8% PCE inflation mean?
It means the core PCE price index was 2.8% higher in February 2025 than in February 2024. It does not mean prices rose 2.8% during February alone. On a month-to-month basis, the core index increased 0.4% from January.
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PCE, short for Personal Consumption Expenditures, tracks changes in prices for goods and services purchased by consumers. The core measure removes food and energy prices; the headline measure includes them. For February, headline prices rose 2.5% over the year and 0.3% over the month. The 2.8% headline figure in the title therefore refers specifically to core PCE.
How much did the Dow and other indexes fall?
The Associated Press reported that the Dow lost 715.80 points, or 1.7%, to close at 41,583.90. The S&P 500 fell 2%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.7%. Forbes described the Dow decline as about 715 points, or 1.8%; that small percentage difference is a reporting and rounding difference, while both accounts put the point loss at roughly 715. Associated Press: market recap for March 28, 2025 Forbes: Dow stumbles more than 700 points after PCE inflation hits 2.8% in February
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Points describe the index’s absolute change; the percentage expresses that change relative to its level. The two figures answer different questions and should not be treated as interchangeable.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Why did stocks fall?
Contemporary market coverage discussed the inflation report alongside looming tariffs and concerns about inflation and the economy. Those issues weighed on investor sentiment, but the reported figures do not establish that the PCE release alone caused the sell-off. A market close captures the day’s combined reaction to information and expectations, not a proven single-cause effect.
Forbes quoted Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management economic strategist, as saying in emailed comments, “It looks like a ‘wait-and-see’ Fed still has more waiting to do,” linking persistent inflation with the possibility that rate cuts investors had hoped for could be further away. This was Zentner’s comment as reported by Forbes, not a statement in the BEA release. Forbes report and Zentner comment
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