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What does “safe haven” mean for a currency?
A safe-haven currency tends to hold or gain value when investors become more concerned about risk. It is a relative, evidence-based description—not a promise that the currency will appreciate in every crisis. Results depend on what it is measured against and which risk conditions and period a study examines.
That distinction matters in a franc-versus-dollar comparison: a currency can rise against the euro while falling against the dollar during the same increase in global risk.
What the studies found about the franc and dollar
High-frequency evidence from 1993–2006
Angelo Ranaldo and Paul Söderlind’s 2007 study examined high-frequency exchange-rate movements from 1993 through 2006. In that sample, the franc tended to appreciate against the dollar when US equity returns were negative, US bond prices rose, or currency-market volatility increased. The authors described the franc as the strongest safe haven among the currencies they studied and the dollar as pro-cyclical with equities. Those are findings for that historical sample, not a current or universal ranking. Read the study.
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Global-risk evidence across currency pairs
A 2013 study by Christian Grisse and Thomas Nitschka reached a more qualified conclusion. As global risk increased, the franc appreciated against the euro and typical carry-trade currencies but depreciated against the US dollar, yen and pound. The relationships varied over time and became stronger in stress periods. The result shows why “the franc is a safe haven” does not necessarily mean “the franc rises against the dollar in every crisis.” The 2007 and 2013 papers use different periods and methods, so their findings should not be collapsed into one rule. Read the study.
Daily data from 2006–2018
A 2020 Swiss National Bank (SNB) paper decomposed daily USD/CHF and EUR/CHF movements from 2006 to 2018 into risk, dollar and euro factors. In its model, the factors explained approximately 73% of USD/CHF variation and 37% of EUR/CHF variation. The risk factor contributed most to franc dynamics, particularly when risk worsened. These are model-specific shares of variation in that sample—not forecasts, predictive accuracy or proof of a general causal relationship. Read the paper.
Why might the franc strengthen when markets are nervous?
Risk aversion is part of the explanation, but not every franc move reflects investors moving money across borders.
- Uncertainty and information: A 2016 SNB study found that uncertainty indicators were more robustly linked to franc movements than capital-flow variables. In the study’s analysis, franc behavior coincided more with an information channel than with new cross-border investment. Read the study.
- Economic news and market conditions: Another 2016 study identified two distinct channels for appreciation pressure: negative macroeconomic surprises and deteriorating market conditions. The effects it examined were magnified during the crisis in its sample. Read the study.
Does the US dollar always strengthen in a crisis?
No general conclusion that the dollar always strengthens follows from these findings. The 2007 study characterized it as pro-cyclical with equities within its 1993–2006 analysis, while the 2013 study found the franc depreciated against the dollar as global risk rose. That later finding does not establish a permanent dollar safe-haven advantage; it demonstrates that the bilateral result can differ by sample, method and risk episode. The evidence here does not establish a current, broad ranking of dollar performance across currencies and crisis types.
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- Issued And Monetized By The Government Of Switzerland.
- In 1967, the price of silver soared steeply, reaching 260 francs per kilogram in August and 350 francs per kilogram in March 1968. At this time, the melt value of the 1/2 franc pieces was circa 0.73 francs. Switzerland started to experience a severe shortage of cash, especially in the north, where people were illegally exporting coins to Germany to be melted. In spite of strict measures against hoarding and melting coins, it is estimated that around 100 tonnes of silver in Swiss francs melted
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How Swiss monetary policy can affect franc strength
Market demand is not the only influence on the exchange rate. A stronger franc can lower the cost of imported goods and add to disinflationary pressure, complicating the SNB’s effort to maintain price stability. The bank has used foreign-exchange intervention as a monetary-policy instrument.
In a speech on 25 September 2009, then-SNB Governing Board member Thomas Jordan said, “The crisis has shown that the Swiss franc still has a safe haven status.” He described foreign-currency purchases that began in March 2009 to prevent franc appreciation against the euro amid a difficult economic situation and deflation risks. Read the speech.
The SNB says safe-haven demand put upward pressure on the franc from 2007 and that it bought foreign currency over several years to slow appreciation and counter further disinflationary pressure. Currency reserves were CHF 85 billion at the end of 2007 and CHF 1,015 billion at the end of 2021; these are reserve holdings on those dates, not totals of intervention purchases. The bank also says it sold foreign exchange in 2022 and 2023 to support franc appreciation amid inflationary pressure. See the SNB’s explanation.
In a joint statement published on 29 September 2025, the SNB, the Swiss Federal Department of Finance and the US Treasury reaffirmed that Switzerland and the United States do not target exchange rates for competitive purposes. The statement says foreign-exchange intervention remains an important SNB monetary-policy instrument for ensuring appropriate monetary conditions and price stability. Read the joint statement.
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How to assess a franc-versus-dollar claim
- Check the pair: CHF/USD and CHF/EUR can move differently under the same risk conditions.
- Identify the trigger: Falling shares, rising bond prices, higher currency volatility, negative economic surprises and broad deterioration in risk conditions are not interchangeable measures.
- Look at the horizon and sample: The 2007 paper used high-frequency observations from 1993–2006; the 2020 paper analyzed daily movements from 2006–2018.
- Separate market response from policy: Intervention can offset exchange-rate pressure, so observed movements need not reflect private demand alone.
For a personal-finance decision, these historical relationships are context, not a forecast or a reliable way to time an exchange. A currency’s past behavior against one counterpart does not guarantee how it will perform against another in a future shock.
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