Making consumer tech entirely in the United States could raise manufacturing costs by 41% to 152% across ten product categories, according to a 2026 model by the Consumer Technology Association (CTA) and consulting firm Kearney. The model’s estimated retail-price increase is lower—27% to 55% on a weighted-average basis—but assumes that only 25% to 50% of the added manufacturing cost reaches consumers. Those are modeled estimates, not observed price increases or forecasts for any specific brand or device.
What CTA and Kearney mean by “made in the United States”
The study compares two different ways to expand U.S. production, using category-specific imports from a mix of countries as its benchmark. It applies tariff measures in effect as of September 2026 to that comparison. Its ten categories are computer monitors, laptops, robotic vacuums, smart speakers, smartphones, smartwatches, televisions, video game consoles, wireless earbuds and wireless headphones.
Full U.S. production
In this scenario, devices are assembled in the United States and their components are sourced domestically. It is the more demanding interpretation of “U.S.-made” in the study: moving final assembly alone does not qualify.
U.S. final assembly
In the less extensive scenario, final assembly takes place in the United States but components remain largely imported. That distinction matters to both cost and supply chains: domestic assembly would not mean the United States makes all the parts used in the finished device.
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What the two production paths would require
CTA’s October 2026 study estimates the following additional annual resources and capital for the ten categories. These are model outputs, not observed investments, hiring or electricity use.
| Measure | Full U.S. production: domestic components and assembly | U.S. final assembly: largely imported components |
|---|---|---|
| Capital expenditure | $185–230 billion, according to CTA’s October 2026 study. | $16–19 billion, according to CTA’s October 2026 study. |
| Additional full-time workers | 555,000–668,000, according to CTA’s October 2026 study. | 61,000–73,000, according to CTA’s October 2026 study. |
| Additional electricity per year | 19.1–19.5 billion kilowatt-hours, according to CTA’s October 2026 study. | 1.4–1.8 billion kilowatt-hours, according to CTA’s October 2026 study. |
The gap shows why shifting assembly is not equivalent to rebuilding a domestic component supply chain. CTA’s modeled assembly route requires far less capital, labor and electricity, but leaves the products dependent on non-U.S. parts.
How much more might devices cost?
CTA and Kearney use engineering-based “should cost” models: they estimate bills of materials and manufacturing value-add using cost observations for materials, purchased components, direct labor, utilities and overhead across countries in scope, then add freight and logistics. The cost percentages below describe modeled manufacturing-cost increases against the study’s import benchmark; they are not predicted changes in a store’s listed price.
Full U.S. production
CTA’s October 2026 model estimates manufacturing costs would rise from 41% for televisions to 152% for smartphones. It also estimates increases of 97% for smartwatches and 93% for laptops. Across the ten categories, CTA estimates a weighted-average retail-price increase of 27% to 55%, assuming that 25% to 50% of the added manufacturing costs are passed through to consumers. That range depends on the pass-through assumption; it is not a quoted price increase for a particular phone, TV or other product.
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U.S. final assembly
CTA reports manufacturing-cost increases of 67% for smartphones and 50% for laptops in its U.S.-assembly scenario. The accessible CTA release does not state a corresponding category-wide retail-price estimate for this scenario. The full-production retail range should not be applied to it: the scenarios use different production assumptions.
How to read the estimates—and their limits
The public CTA release summarizes the methodology and results, but does not expose all underlying product-level inputs or a detailed uncertainty analysis. The estimates are therefore most useful for comparing the scale of the two modeled paths, not for calculating the future price of a named device. Actual costs and retail prices would depend on product design, suppliers, factory utilization, labor and energy costs, logistics, trade rules and how manufacturers and retailers respond.
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CTA represents consumer-technology businesses, and its support for domestic assembly and lower tariffs on component parts—especially parts from trade partners and allies—is a policy position from an industry association. The modeled figures and the association’s recommendations are related, but they are not the same thing: the estimates describe scenarios, while the recommendations argue for a preferred approach.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.Does the U.S. already have a 100% tariff on semiconductor chips?
No—not under the January 14, 2026 White House proclamation described here. It set a 25% ad valorem duty, effective January 15, 2026, on specified covered advanced computing chips and included exceptions for certain uses, such as some U.S. data-center applications, repairs or replacements, research and development, startups, consumer uses, civil-industrial uses and public-sector applications. The proclamation also said broader tariffs might be considered depending on negotiations. That is a dated policy description, not confirmation of the current treatment of every chip; tariff scope and exceptions can change.
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The proclamation should not be conflated with CTA’s cost model, which applies tariff measures in effect as of September 2026 to its import benchmark, or with a general 100% tariff on all semiconductors. Separate industry figures also need careful interpretation: the Semiconductor Industry Association reported $57.8 billion in U.S. semiconductor exports in 2025. That export figure is not a measure of domestic chip-making capacity.
What “impossible” refers to in the debate
The word needs a specific referent. In an Ars Technica interview, CTA executive chair Gary Shapiro called achieving more than 50% of semiconductor manufacturing in the United States within roughly two years “physically impossible, labor-wise impossible,” adding that “even if you threw full money at it today, you just can’t do it.” Those remarks concern a rapid semiconductor-manufacturing target as framed in that article. They are not a finding that every form of U.S. consumer-tech production is impossible, nor are they a result of the CTA/Kearney consumer-product model.
The study instead quantifies the trade-off CTA emphasizes: making components and assembling products in the United States would require much more capital, labor and electricity than assembling products domestically with largely imported parts. CTA argues that selected-product assembly could be an initial step and that lower tariffs on component parts could improve its economics. That is the association’s policy view; the estimates do not establish what policy will be adopted or what consumers will ultimately pay.
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