Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz increased slightly in September 2026, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). That is a sign of a partial pickup, not a return to normal—and it does not show that supplies of diesel, jet fuel or other finished products have recovered. The latest available detailed Hormuz figure is for August: the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates flows averaged 7.6 million barrels per day, still 13.1 million barrels per day below pre-war levels. The August and September figures cover different months and should not be treated as a direct comparison.
More oil moving does not necessarily mean more finished fuel
“Oil” can mean several different cargoes. Crude oil is unrefined feedstock sent to refineries. Diesel and jet fuel are refined products made from crude, while liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is another distinct product. A rise in total oil shipments through Hormuz does not by itself establish that exports of diesel or jet fuel rose, or that refineries are producing normally.
The EIA’s October 6, 2026 outlook reports a slight increase in Hormuz shipments in September, but the current breakdown between crude and refined-product cargoes is not stated in the available figures. The aggregate increase therefore cannot answer which kind of oil drove the change.
Why the refined-product market remains under pressure
The IEA says refined-product markets are especially tight. Nearly 3 million barrels per day of regional refining capacity is shut, constrained by attacks and a lack of viable export outlets. This is refinery capacity, not a measure of how many barrels of product currently move through Hormuz.
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The scale of the region’s product trade helps explain why refinery disruption matters: Gulf producers exported 3.3 million barrels per day of refined products and 1.5 million barrels per day of LPG in 2025, according to the IEA. Those are historical export figures, not current shipment totals. The IEA also says about 80% of oil and oil products transiting Hormuz in 2025 was destined for Asia.
What the flow numbers say—and what they do not
The IEA’s latest detailed Hormuz estimate in these figures is for August 2026. It puts average total flows at 7.6 million barrels per day, 13.1 million below pre-war levels, and labels the August data provisional. This is an August estimate, not the September total.
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For context, EIA analysis puts total oil flows through the Strait at 20.9 million barrels per day in the first half of 2025—about 20% of global petroleum-liquids consumption and one-quarter of oil traded by sea. That pre-conflict benchmark shows the Strait’s importance; it is not a current estimate of traffic.
Separately, the EIA estimates Middle East crude-production shut-ins averaged 4.8 million barrels per day in September, down from 5.8 million in August and a May peak of 10.9 million. It forecasts shut-ins averaging 4.5 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2026 and expects constrained flows to persist. These are agency estimates and forecasts, not final observed results. A production shut-in is also different from a shipment count: oil that is not produced cannot be exported, regardless of route.
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How bypass routes and transfers change the picture
Some oil can avoid Hormuz using pipelines and ports, but bypasses do not make the Strait irrelevant. The IEA estimates Saudi and UAE operational crude pipelines have 3.5–5.5 million barrels per day of potential available bypass capacity. This is potential capacity, not a guarantee that all of it is usable or that it can replace every disrupted cargo type.
The IEA says bypass exports from Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu and the UAE’s Fujairah rose from 4.1 million barrels per day in February 2026 to 7.8 million in June, then fell to 5.5 million in August after Red Sea attacks. Those figures describe exports via named bypass locations, not total Hormuz flows.
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The EIA attributes part of September’s slight Hormuz increase to Saudi Arabia increasingly using ship-to-ship transfers along Oman’s coast, as some exports shifted back through the Strait after the East-West pipeline was repaired and partially resumed flows from September 22. Ship-to-ship transfers and changing routes can alter where cargoes are counted or loaded; they do not demonstrate that refinery output or finished-fuel availability has returned to normal.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What this means for fuel availability
The evidence supports a limited conclusion: shipments through Hormuz rose slightly in September, while the latest detailed August flow estimate remained far below pre-war levels and regional refining capacity remained heavily disrupted. It does not establish that September’s additional shipments were finished fuels, or that consumers’ supplies of diesel and jet fuel have recovered. The latest available sources do not provide an October crude-versus-products split.
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For context on market prices, the EIA says Brent crude spot prices averaged $114 per barrel in September 2026 and forecasts an average of $105 per barrel in the fourth quarter. The quarterly figure is a forecast, not an observed price or a direct measure of retail fuel costs.
Quick Recap
Sources
- U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 6, 2026
- U.S. Energy Information Administration, analysis of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz
- International Energy Agency, 2026 market commentary on Hormuz flows
- International Energy Agency, Middle East energy-market analysis
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