Adjustable-rate mortgages made up more than 11% of U.S. mortgage rate locks in ICE’s October 2026 Mortgage Monitor, the largest share in nearly four years. ICE reported the increase alongside a 7.2% reading for its Conforming 30-year Fixed Rate Index on September 24. That rate-lock figure describes newly locked loans—not the share of all existing mortgages or all mortgage applications.
What ICE’s nearly four-year high measures
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) published its October 2026 Mortgage Monitor on October 5. The report said ARMs accounted for more than 11% of rate locks, the highest share in nearly four years. ICE’s Conforming 30-year Fixed Rate Index stood at 7.2% on September 24. These are ICE-reported market measures; the release does not provide a full methodology for its rate-lock calculation, so the percentage should not be generalized to every lender or application.
ICE’s finding is distinct from a separate statistic reported by the Associated Press: the Mortgage Bankers Association said ARMs represented more than 10% of mortgage applications in the week AP covered. Rate locks and applications are different measures, with different denominators.
Why higher fixed rates can make introductory ARM rates appealing
When fixed mortgage rates are high, an ARM’s initial rate may look attractive to borrowers seeking a lower starting payment. That introductory rate applies only for a defined period; afterward, the rate can adjust according to the loan’s terms. The national rise in ARM activity shows a shift in the mix of rate locks, not that an ARM is the right choice for a particular borrower.
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Andy Walden, ICE’s head of Mortgage and Housing Market Research, said: “ARMs are becoming more attractive to borrowers looking for relief from today’s higher fixed rates, but the overall market exposure to adjustable payments remains relatively limited.”
For context, AP reported Freddie Mac’s average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.28% for the week ending October 1, up from 7.03% the prior week and 6.34% a year earlier. That weekly Freddie Mac average is a different measure and date from ICE’s September 24 index reading, so the figures are not a same-day rate comparison.
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More ARM rate locks do not mean most existing loans are adjusting
A flow of new rate locks is not the same as the stock of outstanding loans or the number that have reached a reset. ICE reported 3.1 million active first-lien ARMs, equal to 5.6% of active mortgages. About one-third of active ARMs had begun to adjust. ICE counted 1.05 million active ARM loans that had reached their first reset and were operating as adjustable-rate loans—the lowest number in more than 25 years, according to the release. More than 90% of ARMs originated since 2022 remained in their introductory fixed-rate periods.
As Bob Hart, president of ICE Mortgage Technology, put it: “Changes in the rate environment affect borrowers differently depending on when their loan was originated and how it’s structured.”
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What a rate change could mean for payments
ICE estimated that if a 25-basis-point increase passed through in full to the underlying ARM indexes, the median affected borrower’s payment would rise about $14 per month. For more recently originated affected loans, ICE estimated roughly $53 per month under the same assumption. These are conditional estimates, not forecasts for every ARM: actual payment changes depend on the loan’s index, margin, caps, balance, and reset terms.
Projected first resets in 2027
ICE projected approximately 180,000 first resets in 2027. Within that outlook, it highlighted about 74,000 seven-year ARMs originated in 2020. For that specific cohort, ICE projected a median monthly payment increase of roughly $1,066, or 36%. The figure is cohort-specific, not a typical increase for all ARM borrowers.
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- CONFIDENTLY AND EASILY SOLVE: Clients' financial questions whether they're buyers, sellers, investors or renters. Increase your perceived professionalism as a new agent, experienced broker or seasoned loan officer. Close more home sales and impress your clients with fast, accurate answers to all their real estate finance questions from PITI Payments to IRR, NPV and Cashflows
- DEDICATED BUYER QUALIFYING KEYS: Enter client's income, debt and expenses to pre-qualify them to only show properties they can afford. Include tax, insurance and mortgage insurance then compare loan options and payment solutions to give your client choices before they make an offer to buy
- FIGURE OUT THE RIGHT LOAN: For your client at the press of a button for jumbo, conventional, FHA/VA, or even 80:10:10 or 80:15:5 combo loans; check to see if ARMs or bi-weekly loans, quarterly payments or if interest-only payments are the answer; giving your client more choices; easily perform what if loan or TVM calculations find loan amount, term, interest or PITI or PI payments
- BECOME AN INVALUABLE RESOURCE: To your clients by reducing their confusion and uncertainty; ensuring they are able to make a purchase offer; knowing they can afford the down payment; and determining which is the right loan for them. Date-math for listings and contracts too. Comes with a protective slide cover, quick reference guide, pocket user's guide, and long-life battery
HELOCs follow a different schedule
Home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) are not the same as first-lien ARMs. ICE said HELOCs are typically tied to the prime rate and reset monthly. It reported a $44,000 median second-lien HELOC balance and a 7.4% median rate; under a 25-basis-point increase, the estimated monthly payment effect was about $9.
Independent reader supportYour contribution helps us test, update, and keep practical guides available for everyone.What to compare before choosing an ARM or fixed-rate loan
A national trend cannot determine which mortgage suits an individual household. Compare actual loan terms, not just the introductory payment and today’s fixed-rate average. Key details include:
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- Initial rate and introductory period: how long the starting rate applies and when the first adjustment can occur.
- Index and margin: the benchmark used to set the rate after the introductory period and the lender’s added margin.
- Adjustment caps: limits on the first change, later periodic changes, and the total increase over the loan’s life.
- Reset timing: how often the rate can change after the first reset.
- Balance and payment capacity: how the outstanding principal and a higher possible payment fit the household budget.
ICE’s Mortgage Monitor analyzes loan-level residential mortgage and performance data covering the majority of the U.S. market, supplemented by charts and trend observations. Its national estimates describe market patterns; they do not establish an individual borrower’s eligibility, offer terms, or suitability.
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